MLB: Mondays Plays

Indians @ Tigers
Play: Indians +110
Comment:
Pros:
This is a good spot for Byrd and the Indians lineup to get back on track. Although Byrd has had a rough start to the young season, he has pitched the Tigers better than any other team in his career. This includes last year, where he allowed one run in his only start against them. He has had success against a few Tigers hitters, and his finesse style matches up well against a lineup that much prefers power pitchers. The Tigers are a very streaky team, and it appears that their bats are finally starting to cool off, as they actually looked bad at the plate the last couple of days. Byrd is a finesse pitcher that is heavily dependent on the home plate umpires strike zone. Helping his cause today is the fact that Froemming, who happens to have one of the biggest zones in the AL, is behind home plate. This will allow Byrd to attack the corners and avoid coming in on hitters, where he lacks overpowering pitches. Byrd is also one of those rare veterans that prefer to pitch on the road than at home.

This is also a perfect spot for the Indians lineup to get back on track. Robertson has not pitched the Indians well in the past, especially last year, where he put forth three poor outings against them. Robertson has also pitched horrific during day games throughout his career, as this lefties fastballs have been much easier to pick up. He comes into today’s game with a day game ERA of 6.33. He is also going to have to deal with a few hitters that prefer left handed pitching that have hit him well in the past. Belliard, Blake, Perreralta, and Sizemore have all put up solid numbers against him. He is also backed by a suspect bullpen that still has their closer shelved. The Tigers pen has also pitched poor in long relief this year, so if Robertson struggles once again against the Indians and during the day, the Indians should be able to put up runs throughout the game.

Cons:
The Indians are starting to show some signs of fatigue, as I feel the Mariners series took a lot out of them. I also try to avoid betting on Byrd, as his pitching performances are too volatile for my liking, and have the tendency to deviate from fundamental form than most pitchers. The Indians bullpen has recently pitching poorer than their ability, and has been walking too many batters. If this trend continues, the Tigers just have too many dangerous hitters to not take advantage of this deficiency. It might be wise to wait for the Indians bats to get back on track before putting money on them.

Cons:
This game gives both the Indians lineup and Byrd a chance to redeem their recent woes. I will take my chances that they will take advantage of this, and take the last game of this series.
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Angels @ Orioles
Play: Orioles +102
Comment:
Pros:
Simply put, Weaver and a struggling Angels lineup does not warrant being favored on a road against a team that plays well at home. Weaver has started this season pitching poorly, as he has been caught missing his location consistently, and leaving pitchers out and over the plate. The result has been 1.5 hits allowed per inning. He has also put forth some poor outings in recent years against the Orioles. The Orioles have displayed some clutch hitting in recent games, especially from hitters that have owned Weaver in the past. Both Tejada and Hernandez have dominated Weaver in the past, while there are a couple of other hitters in today’s lineup that have not seen him, but have hit other pitchers with Weaver’s style well in the past. The Angels also are now become more vulnerable in holding on to a potential lead, as F Rod will not be available today due to an injury. This will put Shields in the closer role, making their bullpen much thinner in earlier innings.

Cabrera is a huge risk, as he is one of the most volatile pitchers in baseball. This year is no exception, as he has walked 16 batters in 6 innings of work this year. Cleary his problems are almost all mental and mechanics. Cabrera has been known to struggle when flustered. He has been known to get much more flustered on the road and when the BHP has a small strike zone, which Cabrera had to face in both his two starts. Helping his cause today is the fact that he will be in front of his home crowds, where he has put together some solid numbers in Camden. Also helping his cause is the fact that he will be supported by one of the bigger strike zones in the league with Miller behind home plate. This is crucial for a pitcher like Cabrera, as he has less control over his pitches than any other pitcher in the league right now. His style also matches up well with Guerero, who continues to display impatience at the plate. The Angels lineup is much less potent than it once was, and has now become a below average lineup.

Cons:
Weaver is also another pitcher that heavily relies on the strike zone as he lacks over powering pitches. He has had great success with Miller behind home plate in past starts, and should have a good advantage over hitters today. He has also pitched a couple of key Orioles hitters well in the past, as he has owned Mora and Millar. Even with F Rod out, the Angels still have a big advantage with their bullpen when compared to the Orioles. If the starters leave in a close game, the Angels have the better chance of pulling out the victory. Cabrera might be the riskiest pitcher in baseball to bet on, as his control over his pitches has been non existent in his first two outings. This is very concerning, as he is backed by a poor bullpen that has not been pitching well lately.

Conclusion:
Although Cabrera is a big risk tonight, I will take my chances fading a below average lineup and Weaver on the road when they are the favorite. This is a good spot for Cabrera to rebound, as he has been known to pitch dominant at home with a pitchers ump calling balls and strikes.<!-- / message -->

Braves @ Mets
Play: Braves +202
Comment:
Pros:
Remember the key to a profitable baseball season is to not bet the teams with the greatest chance of winning, rather betting the teams with the greatest value or greatest expected risk adjusted return. Simply put, a team as good as the Braves and a pitcher that has pitched as well as Sosa has on the road over the last year has no business getting 2 to 1 odds no matter who they play. Once against Martinez and the Mets are greatly overvalued. Don’t let Martinez’s last start where he flirted with a no-hitter fool you. He did not pitch nearly as well as his stats would indicated, as he allowed 2 balls that ended up being long outs in that game which would have been home runs in any other ball park. Also, at least two runs were saved by exceptional fielding the Mets put forth in that game. Martinez is still nowhere near 100 percent, and his velocity is way down from last year. He got away with this deficiency in his first two starts, as he had the luxury of facing one of the worst lineups in baseball. Although he dominated the Braves last year, he is dealing with a much more mature lineup that has displayed more patience at the plate, and is less prone to falling for Martinez’s tactics that could destroy a young lineup. The Braves lineup is hitting the ball as hard as any NL team recently, and appears to be seeing the ball well right now. Martinez will also be on a small pitch count once again, and will be backed by a bullpen that has not pitched well in innings 6 to 8 this year.

Sosa has too much talent to continue to pitch as poorly as he did in his first two starts. No other pitcher in baseball had a better road ERA than Sosa last year, as he finished the season with an astonishing road ERA of 1.81. This is a good spot to pitch back to form, as the Mets lineup has been known to not hit as well when Martinez is on the mound (Ace-itis).

Cons:
Obviously one could find a lot of variables working against the Braves hear, as they are a two to one underdog. Martinez dominated the Braves last year, and has been known to prey on young lineups. He also has consistently made Jones look bad at the plate, which is not a good sign. Sosa has not looked good in his first two starts, and clearly misses the pitching coach that developed him into what he was last year. His style of pitching also doesn’t match up well against the Mets lineup, as he heavily relies on the splitter, while the Mets lineup has several outstanding low ball hitters. Delgado has dominated Sosa in the past, as he is one of the Mets hitters that fundamentally match up well against him. The Braves bullpen has been horrific this year, and yesterday they blew another lead. This is especially concerning, as Sosa is not known to go deep into games, even when he is pitching well. The Mets continue to play better than any team in baseball, and one could make an argument that they do warrant the odds they are getting today.

Conclusion:
Do I think the Braves have a better chance than the Mets to win this game? No. But I do feel they have a better chance than 33% to win this game. When betting a two to 1 underdog, that’s all you need. Great value on a solid team and pitcher to not take my chances. I am on the value here- and value is on the Braves.

Giants @ Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -134
Comment:
Pros:
The Giants recent wins have been derived by excellent pitching performances from their starters, and their ability to avoid their suspect long relief. Their hitting continues to be horrific, and their long relief continues to pitch poorly. Today they send Fassero on the mound, a normal bullpen pitcher that is making a spot start for the Giants. This does not bode well for the Giants, as he simply doesn’t have the stamina to avoid the Giants long relief, nor is he a good enough pitcher to make up for the Giants recent woes at the plate. This is a good spot for the Diamondbacks bats to get things started, as they have seen several left handers in the last few days. Fassero is not the pitcher he once was, and is no where near the pitcher that has pitched several key hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup well in past years. Expect him to fail to avoid the Giants bullpen, allowing the Diambacks a good opportunity in each inning to put up runs.

The Giants bats continue to look horrible, and they showed no signs of getting out of their funk against the Dodgers. Bonds is clearly injured, and it shows in his swing. The hitters around him have not been doing their job, and the Giants have been struggling to get runners on, let alone score. This is a good opportunity for Batista to continue his early season success. He has pitched the Giants well in the past, and has shown the ability to go deep into games and avoid a very poor Diamondbacks bullpen. The Giants have faced several ground ball pitchers like Batista in recent games, and have not done much against them. Batista has also pitched most Giants hitters well, including Bonds, Alou (2 for 16), Durham (0 for 10), Vizquel and Matheney.

Cons:
The Diamondbacks aren’t the most compelling team to bet on as a favorite. They are also one of the least compelling teams to be on when facing a left handed pitcher. Fassero has dominated all of the key Diamondbacks hitters in recent years, and expecting things to change involves a lot of speculation. Asking Batista to keep up his pitching performances might be asking too much, while expecting a decent Giants lineup to continue to play so bad may be as well.

Conclusion:
I just don’t see enough evidence to think recent trends may change. This game poses a good opportunity for the Giants lineup to continue to struggle and Batista to continue to pitch well. Fassero just isn’t the pitcher to make up for this. I like the Diamondbacks today.

Cubs @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers +104
Comment:
Pros:
In my opinion, the public has put way too much stock in Maddux’s first two games, as well as the recent woes the Dodgers have had at the plate. The sustainability factor of either variable isn’t that high. Thus, good value on the Dodgers has been created with the line the books have put forth. Maddux’s first two games were in cold weather, in the day, at home, and with the wind playing a huge favorable factor. Today, Maddux pitches at night, on the road, in warm weather, against a patient veteran lineup. Maddux simply doesn’t have the stuff anymore to keep this up, and is backed by a poor bullpen that also has struggled against the Dodgers in the past. In my opinion, this is a good spot for both Maddux and the Dodgers lineup to display regression to the mean.

I also like Tomko’s chances tonight, as this is a good spot for him to bounce back from his last start. Tomko has always been known to pitch much better in front of the home crowd, except when he pitched on the road at Dodgers Stadium. Tonight he will have both things working for him, as he will for the first time be pitching in front of the home crowd, and in Dodgers stadium. Tomko is one of the few pitchers in baseball to have success against both Ramirez and Lee, as they are a combined 6 for 29 against him. He has also had success against Jones, Pierre and Barrett, the other key hitters in the Cubs lineup. The Dodgers bullpen has been pitching well lately, which should make it hard for the Cubs to put up runs from start to finish.

Cons:
Betting on a slumping lineup going against a hot lineup can make a bet look bad. Maddux is also showing signs of his former self, while Tomko has not looked that good in his first two starts of the season. There exists a lot of speculation in this bet, more than I normally take my chances with.

Conclusion:
Simply put, Maddux is not the Maddux of old, but an old Maddux. The Dodgers lineup is not nearly as bad as they were in their last series. Tomko is a much better pitcher than he has shown in his first two starts. This is a classic case of the public falling for recent trends- trends that’s simply aren’t sustainable in the long run. Wrong team favored here thanks to the public. My money is on the home dog.
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good luck buff. leaning slightly against you today,but nothing serious.
how often do you plan on posting? -meat

Good luck to you to Meathead.
I plan to post everyday, or everyday I have plays.

Whats your card look like today?

Nice writeups as usual. I wanted to throw something out about Jorge Sosa. If you take a look at some of the more advanced pitching stats like H% and Strand%, you will see that Jorge was just incredibly fortunate last year. When he was on the mound the Braves D played out of their minds and the bullpen was lights out. If his H% and Strand% go back to league average, you're gonna see his ERA sit at around 4.5 to 5 and he'll be back in the pen by the All-Star break. Now he's been pretty unlucky in his first 2 starts this year, but overall I think you are looking at a borderline 5th starter, and should wager accordingly. Anyway, just wanted to throw that out because I think alot of people might be seriously over valuing Sosa this year. With that said, he'll probably throw a complete game tonight just to spite me.

i guess i am a degenerate since i dont really even love my card today even though it is 1-0, a lucky sox play. angels, cards, pads. you mightve kept me off the cubs too.
funny, i was actually going to play mets -1.5 AFTER your write up, but got caught up out and about today.
any thoughts on az tonight , i am still thinking about it.
good luck.

always enjoy your write-ups. I appreciate the effort.