I am coming off a disappointing 2 and 3 day, as the Diamondbacks closer blew a 2 run lead, while Greg Maddux made me eat crow. Today I only was able to spot two plays, one being a decent sized favorite, while another being an even money home team.
Nationals @ Phillies
Play: Phillies -150
Comment:
Pros:
Whenever you have one of the most (potentially) potent lineups matched up against one of the most consistently anemic lineups in a notorious hitter’s park, the big bats have a huge fundamental advantage that can only be countered by a pitching advantage. Unfortunately for the Nationals, Armas and their bullpen do not give them any advantage to make up for this deficiency. Although Armas is off to a good start this season, I feel he lacks the control to make it sustainable. Armas is notoriously known to struggle as a road pitcher, as he finished with a 6+ road ERA in both his last two years. He has mental weakness that usually limits his control on his pitches, causing him to walk a high rate of batters on the road. This is not a downfall you want in your pitcher when facing a lineup that has several home run hitters inside a hitter’s park. Armas has struggled against the Phillies in years past, and has not faced this improved lineup, nor pitched in their new park. Armas rarely pitches three good outings in a row, and was helped by having good control with his pitches in his first two games, something that more than likely can’t be sustained for long stretches. Armas also rarely goes deep into games, even when he is pitching well. This is concerning for Nationals bettors, as their bullpen has depreciated substantially from last year, and does not match up well against the Phillies. Expect this to be a good opportunity for the Phillies bats to start to come alive, and resemble the lineup that allowed them to be atop almost every single offensive category last year.
Even though Lidle struggled last year when pitching at home, Phillies bettors probably would want him more than any other Phillies pitcher when pitching at home, as he possesses the asset that best counteracts the ballparks hitter friendly dimensions- a sinker ball. He has also dominated the Nationals in year’s past- no year more dominant than last, where he pitched 4 games against them, and derived an ERA of 2.45 in those starts. No other Nationals hitter has been swinging the bat better than Johnson in recent games. However, Lidle has had great success against Johnson in the past, and the same could be said for 4 other Nationals hitters that will be in today’s lineup. The Phillies bullpen got a much needed day off yesterday, and should be fresh to close out the Nationals if necessary.
Cons:
Armas appears to be an improved pitcher from years past, as he worked out some kinks in his mechanics in Spring. He has also had solid success against several Phillies bats, and the only Phillies hitter that has hit him well is Abreu. The Phillies bats still continue to play well below their capabilities, and laying these odds on an underachieving lineup isn’t the most compelling bet to make. Betting on Lidle at this price in the long run will surely erode your bankroll as well. He isn’t the prototypical pitcher you want to pay this price for. Even though he has dominated the Nationals in the past; that was when they were without Soriano, a hitter that has always hit Lidle well in years past. The Nationals are also coming off a series where their bats finally showed some signs of life.
Conclusion:
If this series plays to form, it provides a huge advantage for the Phillies. The pitching disparity is no where near the hitting disparity. In this park, that’s a decent enough mismatch to pay this price on the Phillies.
Tigers @ A’s
Play: A’s -112
Comment:
Pros:
This might be the strangest opening line put forth by books this year, as the line makers are clearly overreacting to the A’s recent woes. Loaiza is a much better pitcher than what the public has seen in his first two starts, the A’s bullpen is much better than what they showed the public last series, while their lineup is much more clutch than they displayed to the public in their last two series. Therefore, value has been created on this line as the public expects a non sustainable trend to stay put. This is a perfect spot for Loaiza to bounce back from his first two starts, as he has owned the Tigers more than any other team he has faced in his career. Loaiza has owned Ordonez and Inge, while he should also have an advantage against the Tigers young bats that still haven’t faced this savvy veteran. The Tigers lineup seems to be in a slump as well, and clearly miss their leader, Young, in their lineup. The Tigers also just got finished playing two hard fought home series against divisional rivals, including a game yesterday. While the Tigers were getting dominated yesterday, the A’s were resting up, thinking about their heartbreaking loss to the Rangers on Sunday.
Verlander is coming off one of the most pathetic pitching performances of the year, where he was embarrassed by the White Sox. Most scouts claim he still isn’t ready for the big leagues, leading me to believe he should be overmatched by this A’s lineup. Not helping the Tigers cause is the fact that they have one of the worst long relief bullpens in baseball. They also got a lot of work in yesterday, as Roberson couldn’t last more than three innings. Simply put, the slumping Tigers lineup just isn’t playing well enough to support the pitching staff that the Tigers will put on the mound from innings one through nine.
Cons:
Loaiza has been known to have a good, then bad season. Coming off one of his better years and signing a big contract, I would not be surprised to see Loaiza make for a solid fade right now. After what transpired the last two series for the A’s, they are clearly lacking confidence. This is vital for a young team whose past success has been derived by confidence and emotion. Expecting the Tigers lineup to continue to play this poorly is more wishful thinking than sustainable fundamental analysis.
Conclusion:
How can’t you bet the A’s at home at this price against an unproven pitching coming off a horrific start? This is a perfect opportunity for the A’s to bounce back from Sunday’s heartbreaker. I will gladly take my chances on them today.
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Nationals @ Phillies
Play: Phillies -150
Comment:
Pros:
Whenever you have one of the most (potentially) potent lineups matched up against one of the most consistently anemic lineups in a notorious hitter’s park, the big bats have a huge fundamental advantage that can only be countered by a pitching advantage. Unfortunately for the Nationals, Armas and their bullpen do not give them any advantage to make up for this deficiency. Although Armas is off to a good start this season, I feel he lacks the control to make it sustainable. Armas is notoriously known to struggle as a road pitcher, as he finished with a 6+ road ERA in both his last two years. He has mental weakness that usually limits his control on his pitches, causing him to walk a high rate of batters on the road. This is not a downfall you want in your pitcher when facing a lineup that has several home run hitters inside a hitter’s park. Armas has struggled against the Phillies in years past, and has not faced this improved lineup, nor pitched in their new park. Armas rarely pitches three good outings in a row, and was helped by having good control with his pitches in his first two games, something that more than likely can’t be sustained for long stretches. Armas also rarely goes deep into games, even when he is pitching well. This is concerning for Nationals bettors, as their bullpen has depreciated substantially from last year, and does not match up well against the Phillies. Expect this to be a good opportunity for the Phillies bats to start to come alive, and resemble the lineup that allowed them to be atop almost every single offensive category last year.
Even though Lidle struggled last year when pitching at home, Phillies bettors probably would want him more than any other Phillies pitcher when pitching at home, as he possesses the asset that best counteracts the ballparks hitter friendly dimensions- a sinker ball. He has also dominated the Nationals in year’s past- no year more dominant than last, where he pitched 4 games against them, and derived an ERA of 2.45 in those starts. No other Nationals hitter has been swinging the bat better than Johnson in recent games. However, Lidle has had great success against Johnson in the past, and the same could be said for 4 other Nationals hitters that will be in today’s lineup. The Phillies bullpen got a much needed day off yesterday, and should be fresh to close out the Nationals if necessary.
Cons:
Armas appears to be an improved pitcher from years past, as he worked out some kinks in his mechanics in Spring. He has also had solid success against several Phillies bats, and the only Phillies hitter that has hit him well is Abreu. The Phillies bats still continue to play well below their capabilities, and laying these odds on an underachieving lineup isn’t the most compelling bet to make. Betting on Lidle at this price in the long run will surely erode your bankroll as well. He isn’t the prototypical pitcher you want to pay this price for. Even though he has dominated the Nationals in the past; that was when they were without Soriano, a hitter that has always hit Lidle well in years past. The Nationals are also coming off a series where their bats finally showed some signs of life.
Conclusion:
If this series plays to form, it provides a huge advantage for the Phillies. The pitching disparity is no where near the hitting disparity. In this park, that’s a decent enough mismatch to pay this price on the Phillies.
Tigers @ A’s
Play: A’s -112
Comment:
Pros:
This might be the strangest opening line put forth by books this year, as the line makers are clearly overreacting to the A’s recent woes. Loaiza is a much better pitcher than what the public has seen in his first two starts, the A’s bullpen is much better than what they showed the public last series, while their lineup is much more clutch than they displayed to the public in their last two series. Therefore, value has been created on this line as the public expects a non sustainable trend to stay put. This is a perfect spot for Loaiza to bounce back from his first two starts, as he has owned the Tigers more than any other team he has faced in his career. Loaiza has owned Ordonez and Inge, while he should also have an advantage against the Tigers young bats that still haven’t faced this savvy veteran. The Tigers lineup seems to be in a slump as well, and clearly miss their leader, Young, in their lineup. The Tigers also just got finished playing two hard fought home series against divisional rivals, including a game yesterday. While the Tigers were getting dominated yesterday, the A’s were resting up, thinking about their heartbreaking loss to the Rangers on Sunday.
Verlander is coming off one of the most pathetic pitching performances of the year, where he was embarrassed by the White Sox. Most scouts claim he still isn’t ready for the big leagues, leading me to believe he should be overmatched by this A’s lineup. Not helping the Tigers cause is the fact that they have one of the worst long relief bullpens in baseball. They also got a lot of work in yesterday, as Roberson couldn’t last more than three innings. Simply put, the slumping Tigers lineup just isn’t playing well enough to support the pitching staff that the Tigers will put on the mound from innings one through nine.
Cons:
Loaiza has been known to have a good, then bad season. Coming off one of his better years and signing a big contract, I would not be surprised to see Loaiza make for a solid fade right now. After what transpired the last two series for the A’s, they are clearly lacking confidence. This is vital for a young team whose past success has been derived by confidence and emotion. Expecting the Tigers lineup to continue to play this poorly is more wishful thinking than sustainable fundamental analysis.
Conclusion:
How can’t you bet the A’s at home at this price against an unproven pitching coming off a horrific start? This is a perfect opportunity for the A’s to bounce back from Sunday’s heartbreaker. I will gladly take my chances on them today.
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