FHMESQ twist on SSI -1.5 system plays, YTD = +13.3 UNITS

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

Went 5-6 on Tuesday for +$125

Updated record:

Games: 21-28
Series: 22-2 (Any series losses won't be posted until the series ends or I abandon the team mid-series. Wins will be posted when a series closes)
Units/$: +$1330, 13.3 units

Today's plays

NYY 200/200
STL 520/400
PHIL 200/310

Plays on DET, MIL and SF will come later, the lines aren't up yet on my account. MIL and SF are scheduled to be 4 unit plays, not entirely sure what I will do with them at this point. SF is a 4 game series.

WorldNumberOne · Apr 19, 2006

doesnt suck to have a 43 % win percentage and still be up money...

if it were me , i would abandon the 3 late series.

i think you have a real shot at winning all 3 of the others . making for a nice 3 day run.

BookieNemesis · Apr 19, 2006

5-6 +125 is a real good deal. Do you know what the overall record was for last year? by games and by series? Mathprof brought up a very good point about Milwaukee being a very bad road. They're consistently bad year after year. I didn't play them yesterday. I would abandon them if I were you. Plus Houston was pretty good at home last year.

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

WNO and BN,

I am thinking of abandoning Mil, at most I will go 2 units. Detroit is only in game 2 so I will play them and I will probably go 3 units on SF. I still can't f*ing believe they blew a 7 run lead on Monday. They are much better than Ariz and should win one of the next two.

I don't know the winning % from last year. I could go back and look at the spreadsheet but have too much shit to do today. I will do it in the next few days. The per game winning % is going to suck all year long. If you assume the road team wins 45% of their games and then drop another 10% for 1 run games (just estimates on my part), it will be around 41-43%.

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

Ok,

Adding:

DET 200/380
MIL 200/360
SF 300/570

WorldNumberOne · Apr 19, 2006

i think det/oak will play every game a 1 run game. strong pitching matchups .

and i dont see san fran beating webb by 2 . or at all for that matter .

they might handle vargas tomorrow .

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

Matt Cain is legit too.

WorldNumberOne · Apr 19, 2006

not so far.

2 games :

2 losses:

14-6
8-0

hopefully he'll be better today.

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

Hopefully, he is their #1 pitching prospect. Pitched very well at the end of last season. 2-1, 2.33 ERA in 7 starts.

BookieNemesis · Apr 19, 2006

STL up 1-0 on Edmonds HR. With Carpenter pitching, 3 runs might be sufficent.

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

Let's hope they put it away early. 6 runs through 4 would be nice.

BookieNemesis · Apr 19, 2006

Santos is their ace. I doubt we could rout him.

mike0187 · Apr 19, 2006

I gave up on Milwaukee, just couldn't put another bet on them today. Decided to cut my losses and for now on I just want to be smarter about what series to play.

Need the Cards bad today, and could use the Yanks too.

BookieNemesis · Apr 19, 2006

Pittsburg has 6 one-run game in 16 games played this season. I was thinking is there anyway to look up which team has the most one-run game in the past couple of seasons? We should put them on no-play list. Since one-run game is a loser for us regardless which team wins.

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

BookieNemesis said:
Santos is their ace. I doubt we could rout him.

Pitts and Ace may be an oxymoron, and he has a 7.07 ERA.

BookieNemesis · Apr 19, 2006

X-factor Hr!!! 2-0 Stl

Now all we need is a 3-run bomb from Pujols

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

Eckstein HR. I love his game, but how does that guy hit a HR off major league pitching?

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

BookieNemesis said:
Pittsburg has 6 one-run game in 16 games played this season. I was thinking is there anyway to look up which team has the most one-run game in the past couple of seasons? We should put them on no-play list. Since one-run game is a loser for us regardless which team wins.

You could figure it out on covers.com by looking at each game. I know CWS played a bunch last season.

Mike, MIL is officially on the watch list for fading.

fhmesq44 · Apr 19, 2006

1 run games for 2005:

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/standings/index.jsp?ymd=20051013

Looks like most teams are around 50-54 1 run games with Wash at 61, LAA and CWS a little on the high side too.

BookieNemesis · Apr 19, 2006

I guess this stat doens't help. FYI, yankees 6 wins this season are all by 2+ runs. I just love teams like yankees and cincinati who scores a bunch of runs. They are perfect for this system.