I am coming off a 1-1 day, losing a sizeable chalk play, as the Phillies continue to make me look clueless. Loazia finally put forth a respectable outing, as the A’s inched out my only win. Today I found only one game I really like, and I will continue to be patient until I feel I have a better read on this young season.
Tigers@ A’s
Play: A’s -127
Comment:
Pros:
I am going to try my luck with the A’s one more time, as I feel this is a good spot for them to take another game in this series. Blanton is coming off a horrific start, and now gets a good opportunity to make up for it as he faces a lineup that clearly isn’t seeing the ball well right now. Blanton is one of the young pitchers in this league that I have high expectations for. He showed his talent in his first start, as he pitched 8 shutout innings, allowing only 2 hits to the improved Mariners lineup. Today he makes his home debut, to his friendly confines in which he put up a 3.35 ERA in last year. Blanton has yet to face the Tigers, and has actually pitched well in the past against teams that have not seen his pitches. Blanton does a pretty good job keeping his walk total down, which is a huge asset when facing a struggling lineup, as it forces the hitters to make things happen on their own. Expect Blanton to rebound from last week, as he will face 9 hitters that have never seen him before. He is also backed by an elite bullpen, a bullpen that shutdown the Tigers last night, as well as doing the same on a consistent basis last year against this team.
Rogers is a type of finesse pitcher that preys on young lineups that lack patience at the plate. He is also a pitcher that much prefers to pitch at home. Throughout his career he has consistently struggled against teams that could hit lefties as well as veteran lineups that take a lot of pitches and forces him to go in on him. Last year, Rogers faced a young, injured A’s lineup. The result was some solid numbers against them. However, the A’s are a much more mature lineup this year, have added a couple of veterans that own Rogers, and for the most part prefer left handers. Also, Rogers stats last year are a bit misleading, as several A’s have solid success against him last year as well. Tonight he will face several hitters that have had impressive success against him. Crosby, Ellis, Scutero, Bradley, and Kotsay have all put up solid numbers against him, while Kendall, Thomas and Payton have owned him in the past. Simply put, there are just too many hitters that can hit Rogers in tonight’s lineup that makes me think Rogers will get roughed up. He is also backed by an overworked and sub par bullpen.
Cons:
I tend to shy away betting on young pitchers coming off a bad start and/ or making their home debut. The combination is not the most compelling, as this may be too much psychological factors for a young pitcher to deal with. Also, expecting this potent Tigers lineup to remain in this funk is not the most logical thing to assume. They may explode on any day. Rogers, much like all old, finesse lefties, will put their best work in during the first two months of the season. Therefore, right now may be the riskiest time to fade him. The A’s struggled putting up a decent amount of runs against him last year. The last few games, their lineup has also struggled producing runs. Aside from Swisher, the A’s bats continued to look bad last night.
Conclusion:
In my opinion, the A’s are a top three team in baseball. In my opinion, Blanton is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The A’s recent slump has forced the public to shy away from them. Add these variables up, and the books have created good value on the A’s tonight. At this price, I have no problem taking them.
Tigers@ A’s
Play: A’s -127
Comment:
Pros:
I am going to try my luck with the A’s one more time, as I feel this is a good spot for them to take another game in this series. Blanton is coming off a horrific start, and now gets a good opportunity to make up for it as he faces a lineup that clearly isn’t seeing the ball well right now. Blanton is one of the young pitchers in this league that I have high expectations for. He showed his talent in his first start, as he pitched 8 shutout innings, allowing only 2 hits to the improved Mariners lineup. Today he makes his home debut, to his friendly confines in which he put up a 3.35 ERA in last year. Blanton has yet to face the Tigers, and has actually pitched well in the past against teams that have not seen his pitches. Blanton does a pretty good job keeping his walk total down, which is a huge asset when facing a struggling lineup, as it forces the hitters to make things happen on their own. Expect Blanton to rebound from last week, as he will face 9 hitters that have never seen him before. He is also backed by an elite bullpen, a bullpen that shutdown the Tigers last night, as well as doing the same on a consistent basis last year against this team.
Rogers is a type of finesse pitcher that preys on young lineups that lack patience at the plate. He is also a pitcher that much prefers to pitch at home. Throughout his career he has consistently struggled against teams that could hit lefties as well as veteran lineups that take a lot of pitches and forces him to go in on him. Last year, Rogers faced a young, injured A’s lineup. The result was some solid numbers against them. However, the A’s are a much more mature lineup this year, have added a couple of veterans that own Rogers, and for the most part prefer left handers. Also, Rogers stats last year are a bit misleading, as several A’s have solid success against him last year as well. Tonight he will face several hitters that have had impressive success against him. Crosby, Ellis, Scutero, Bradley, and Kotsay have all put up solid numbers against him, while Kendall, Thomas and Payton have owned him in the past. Simply put, there are just too many hitters that can hit Rogers in tonight’s lineup that makes me think Rogers will get roughed up. He is also backed by an overworked and sub par bullpen.
Cons:
I tend to shy away betting on young pitchers coming off a bad start and/ or making their home debut. The combination is not the most compelling, as this may be too much psychological factors for a young pitcher to deal with. Also, expecting this potent Tigers lineup to remain in this funk is not the most logical thing to assume. They may explode on any day. Rogers, much like all old, finesse lefties, will put their best work in during the first two months of the season. Therefore, right now may be the riskiest time to fade him. The A’s struggled putting up a decent amount of runs against him last year. The last few games, their lineup has also struggled producing runs. Aside from Swisher, the A’s bats continued to look bad last night.
Conclusion:
In my opinion, the A’s are a top three team in baseball. In my opinion, Blanton is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The A’s recent slump has forced the public to shy away from them. Add these variables up, and the books have created good value on the A’s tonight. At this price, I have no problem taking them.
