betting underdog and favorite -1 RL system

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Jan 30, 2006
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I'm new to capping bases, but this system just came to mind. I remember someone saying that less than 30% of games are won by 1 run and that about 70% are won by more than 1 run.

If you bet the underdog getting +118 and you take the favorite -1 getting +120, you are guaranting yourself at least a 18% profit 70% of the time.

This means that 7/10 times you get .18 ....... 7 * .18 = 1.26
And.... 3/10 times you lose 1.0 ............3 * 1 = 3

This would put you at a loss of about 1.74 overall...and I'm talking units.

BUT!!!

If you take into account the teams that are playing and can manage to pick the majority of lopsided games that most likely won't turn out to be a win by 1 run you can make your odds much greater.

AND!!!

The stat about 30% and 70% takes into account all games whether the underdog or the favorite win by 1, so if you look at the games won only by the favorite by 1 run you can increase your odds even more.

I don't have any old stats but if you could change your potential handicap to 15% and 85% the following would result

8.5 * .18 = 1.53
1.5 * 1.0 = 1.5

Thus putting you positive... If you can come up with a potential tell about games not being decided by 1 run by the favorite this could be a great system it seems.


Please criticize the crap out of this because I'm new to capping baseball and this may be the stupidest system ever thought up, but please let me know and I'll shut up about it. I was just thinking and so I thought I'd share.

As alwasy BOL to everyone! :103631605
 

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There's a bit of money to be made but its definitely a grind. You have to do the math on each and every play to you make to insure that you are making positive expectation plays each and every time. Why? Because in essence you are making a money line bet when the true ML against a favorite 1 run win is about -650 (15.4%). A few cents on either RL or ML you are playing can quickly turn a -600 ML into a -700 ML. Shopping for the best lines and doing the math is crucial to even standing a chance. A lot of people will quickly dismiss your idea because of the thought of making -600 bets over and over again but if you're consistent and patient, you can make this work.
 

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