FHMESQ system teams to fade

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Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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Those that are following this system know that I am avoiding certain teams when they are on the road and instead playing their opponent -1.5 runs. Based on my research from last season, the 7 worst teams accounted for 201 of the 218 units lost by teams under .500. The dividing line for the 7 worst was .450 winning percentage.

At this point I have identified 5 teams that I think stink and should be in this "avoid" list, they are:

KC, TB, Pitts, Fla and Wash

I may have jumped the gun on Wash and I do think TB is improved. However, I see now way how the other 3 will be better than the 7th worst team in the league or play >.450 ball.

This list is fluid and may change as the season goes on. Once we hit the 2 month mark (end of May or so), this list may simply be objectively determined as below .450 teams and not the subjective list it is now. If you disagree with my analysis, feel free to fade other teams or play these teams -1.5 when they are roadies.

In the past 10 days KC has been swept 3 times on the road and TB is in danger of being swept today. That equates to -28 units if TB loses today. Instead, I closed each of their series in game 1 and picked up a little over 4 units total. Conversely, Washington would have closed their series with Philly in game 1 and Philly is yet to close out Washington, game 3 is today.

Teams I have on the watch list at this point are:

MIL, LAD, CINCY, COL, ARIZ, SEA and PHIL
 

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Thx for response FHM, I agree with your concept of
fluidity and I hope that we don't drive ourselves crazy
in the process.

Perhaps and end of month review each month is a sensible
solution; then to determine which teams to ignore (or play
against) might be ...
Any team whose total w/l for season is below 45% and/or
any team whose road performance is below 40%.

This may seem "draconian" but the idea here is to avoid losers,
not find winners - agree?

Best of Luck in new series
MP
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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MathProf said:
This may seem "draconian" but the idea here is to avoid losers,
not find winners - agree?

Best of Luck in new series
MP

Absolutely, I am continuously evaluating. Once we have more games it will be easier as the objective numbers (winning %) will be there.
 

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