New Baseball System W/ Runline and Underdog Starting tonight

I am going to give a new system in baseball a try. Last year 17% of home favorites won by 1 run exactly and 12% of road favorites won by 1 run exactly. I think if you pick your spots those numbers can decrease. It's also important to get the best number to maximize profits. I am going to play each play small and track the record here to see if this system will work.

First Play tonight:
San Diego Padres/New York Mets
San Diego -1.5 +168
New York Mets +140

Are you putting the same amount on each, or determining the amount to put on each to guarantee you the same amount of profit no matter who wins? I suggest the latter.

Did you read my thread from earlier today? It's pretty much the same thing.

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=369485

neomartic said:

Did you read my thread from earlier today? It's pretty much the same thing.

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=369485

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I didn't see your thread earlier today but mines is -1.5 so it still is different. I am playing the same amount on each play 1 unit on each.

I don't know if you thought I was mocking your or anything, but I was just mentioning it was a coincidence and asking if you'd seen it.

Actually, I was thinking of that originally too. I am laying 1 unit on each too, but I realized that if it ended up a win by 1 run I would lose double (both bets) but if you only lay the 1 run you will push it and only lose on the underdog therefore limiting your liability of losing double and only giving up .5 runs of value.

In any case, it's pretty cool that we're on the same page with this and I wish you the best of luck!

Did you run any numbers to determine returns?

from another thread earlier

"I'm new to capping bases, but this system just came to mind. I remember someone saying that less than 30% of games are won by 1 run and that about 70% are won by more than 1 run.

If you bet the underdog getting +118 and you take the favorite -1 getting +120, you are guaranting yourself at least a 18% profit 70% of the time.

This means that 7/10 times you get .18 ....... 7 * .18 = 1.26
And.... 3/10 times you lose 1.0 ............3 * 1 = 3

This would put you at a loss of about 1.74 overall...and I'm talking units.

BUT!!!

If you take into account the teams that are playing and can manage to pick the majority of lopsided games that most likely won't turn out to be a win by 1 run you can make your odds much greater.

AND!!!

The stat about 30% and 70% takes into account all games whether the underdog or the favorite win by 1, so if you look at the games won only by the favorite by 1 run you can increase your odds even more.

I don't have any old stats but if you could change your potential handicap to 15% and 85% the following would result

8.5 * .18 = 1.53
1.5 * 1.0 = 1.5

Thus putting you positive... If you can come up with a potential tell about games not being decided by 1 run by the favorite this could be a great system it seems.


Please criticize the crap out of this because I'm new to capping baseball and this may be the stupidest system ever thought up, but please let me know and I'll shut up about it. I was just thinking and so I thought I'd share.

As alwasy BOL to everyone!"

Bookies hate when you do this......and mine wont take it

that's what pinny is for!

billsfan said:

Bookies hate when you do this......and mine wont take it

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i dont think most bookies mind when you set yourself up a polish middle .

in fact i would bet they love it when players have the chance to lose both sides of a bet. espcially laying 5-1 to do it.