this thread is respone to poster Peter Gabriel questions in tracker forum.
First of all thanks for the kind words. I realize that I am on a hot streak right now and realistically I can't continue the pace I have had the first 3 weeks but I only hope to keep going forward but there will be some bumps in the road(so i'm trying to enjoy the good times while they last). Hell, my goal for the whole year was to win 20 units. I think the most impressive thing is that I have only bet 1 unit per game to accumulate this record.
I use 3 criteria when capping a game: 1)RPI rating of each team at ESPN.com 2) on base plus slugging pct =ops of each team and 3) (and I think the key to my success this year) career pitching numbers of walks per 9 innings, hr's allowed per 9 innings and K's per 9 innings( I beleive are the 3 most consistent numbers a pitcher can control, alot of the other numbers involed in assesing a pitcher are a little more luck). I than have a way to take these numbers and give a pitcher a power rating. I than take each of these 3 numbers and put a weight on them: 20% RPI rating, 20% ops, and 40% pitching power rating numbers and come with a pecentage (chance) that a team will win this particular game out of 100% and add another 17% for home field advantage. This gives me a true line (percentage of chance a team will win) This is it in a nutshell(is a little more complicated than it sounds with the numbers crunching). I don't get into specfic match-ups or anything like that. I am looking for a 20 cent edge for favorites off of my true line or 15 cent edge for an underdog. I also do some tweaking and don't touch fav's/ and most dogs that are over say -160/+160. If I am to take a dog I make sure they are a winner in 1 of the 3 categories I have. This system tends to play more dogs.
I think the one thing I have learned at the Rx since I started posting(late oct 2005) is that the only way to win is to treat this(gambling) like a full time job and than maybe you might come ahead. It is all about hard work. Shopping numbers all day, capping, keeping records, reading others posts,etc....while trying to work a full time job. I 100% beleive you get what you put into this.
The last thing is don't be fooled by my success. I am still am learning every day and keeping an open mind to what some of the PROVEN baseball cappers on this forum have to say( they know ALOT more than I do). It is April 21st and I will have some HORRIBILE weeks (just comes with the territory and realities of gambling) later this year. But the most important thing I have going for me is that I know in my heart I will try and out work 99% of the gamblers/bettors out there(that is all I can do) and I hope that is what will give me an edge in the long run (we shall see).
First of all thanks for the kind words. I realize that I am on a hot streak right now and realistically I can't continue the pace I have had the first 3 weeks but I only hope to keep going forward but there will be some bumps in the road(so i'm trying to enjoy the good times while they last). Hell, my goal for the whole year was to win 20 units. I think the most impressive thing is that I have only bet 1 unit per game to accumulate this record.
I use 3 criteria when capping a game: 1)RPI rating of each team at ESPN.com 2) on base plus slugging pct =ops of each team and 3) (and I think the key to my success this year) career pitching numbers of walks per 9 innings, hr's allowed per 9 innings and K's per 9 innings( I beleive are the 3 most consistent numbers a pitcher can control, alot of the other numbers involed in assesing a pitcher are a little more luck). I than have a way to take these numbers and give a pitcher a power rating. I than take each of these 3 numbers and put a weight on them: 20% RPI rating, 20% ops, and 40% pitching power rating numbers and come with a pecentage (chance) that a team will win this particular game out of 100% and add another 17% for home field advantage. This gives me a true line (percentage of chance a team will win) This is it in a nutshell(is a little more complicated than it sounds with the numbers crunching). I don't get into specfic match-ups or anything like that. I am looking for a 20 cent edge for favorites off of my true line or 15 cent edge for an underdog. I also do some tweaking and don't touch fav's/ and most dogs that are over say -160/+160. If I am to take a dog I make sure they are a winner in 1 of the 3 categories I have. This system tends to play more dogs.
I think the one thing I have learned at the Rx since I started posting(late oct 2005) is that the only way to win is to treat this(gambling) like a full time job and than maybe you might come ahead. It is all about hard work. Shopping numbers all day, capping, keeping records, reading others posts,etc....while trying to work a full time job. I 100% beleive you get what you put into this.
The last thing is don't be fooled by my success. I am still am learning every day and keeping an open mind to what some of the PROVEN baseball cappers on this forum have to say( they know ALOT more than I do). It is April 21st and I will have some HORRIBILE weeks (just comes with the territory and realities of gambling) later this year. But the most important thing I have going for me is that I know in my heart I will try and out work 99% of the gamblers/bettors out there(that is all I can do) and I hope that is what will give me an edge in the long run (we shall see).
