Good price for Beckett tonight

quantumleap · Apr 21, 2006

Bos -115 over Tor
I've been keeping my eye on this guy for quite some time and he has yet to disappoint me. I'll be betting Beckett in most situations this year. I won't bet blindly though.

Beckett goes against Burnett who gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his first start. Boston's bullpen has been supporting Beckett as he has gone 7 innings in each outing.

ClipJoint · Apr 21, 2006

I am shocked this line has dropped...I saw a lot of value in the line last night at -126.

Burnett continues to be the most overhyped pitcher in baseball. Beckett is among the elite.

Toronto has plenty of offense that will put Beckett to the test, but I just can't see Burnett keeping Boston's offense in check.

Trapstar · Apr 21, 2006

The line is low for a reason, just like with Peavy last night, and you saw that result.

quantumleap · Apr 21, 2006

Clip:

I say Beckett goes 15-6 this year. At that record, anything better than -300 is profit. I can't understand why Burnett is so valued here either.

I also like the following:

Marlins +167 over Phil
Olsen looked good to me in his last outing which was a 2-1 loss. Lieber is a hack. Take the money and run.

Det -101 over Sea
Maroth has the potential to go 16-8 and is pitching very well. I have respect for Washburn but not his supporting cast. Sea has lost 5 out of their last 7 including 2 out of their last 3 at home.

quantumleap · Apr 21, 2006

Trapstar said:
The line is low for a reason, just like with Peavy last night, and you saw that result.

Are you saying that every game with this scenario will end up like SD last night?

Certainly Beckett has a chance of getting beat, he will lose his 6 games this year. But just because this is a low line doesn't mean it will end up like the SD game.

ClipJoint · Apr 21, 2006

Trapstar said:
The line is low for a reason, just like with Peavy last night, and you saw that result.

The line on Peavy was low because he was facing a team much better than his and his team does not provide him with run support.

HPark1 · Apr 21, 2006

quantumleap said:
Clip:

I say Beckett goes 15-6 this year. At that record, anything better than -300 is profit. I can't understand why Burnett is so valued here either.

Beckett could very well go 15-6 but you can't just say because of that prediction anything better than -300 is value. Boston is expected to win around 95 games so shouldn't anything under -170ish be value too? You have to look at every game individually. I'm sure Beckett will have a nice record against the lower echelon teams in the league. I doubt he'll have a 70%+ winning percentage against above 500 teams.

Burnett pitched pretty well in his opening game just being victimized twice by Konerko on two run homers. And that first homerun should never have really happened either as Thome was given the benefit of the doubt on what looked to be a strike on a full count. Anyways the difference between Burnett and Beckett is very small. They have practically identical era's over the past two seasons.

Also some bad blood for Beckett tonight after he overeacted and went beserk on Hllenbrand his last outing after he thought Shea showed him up after dropping his bat (thinking he had a walk) on a late strike call.

Trapstar · Apr 21, 2006

quantumleap said:
Are you saying that every game with this scenario will end up like SD last night?

Certainly Beckett has a chance of getting beat, he will lose his 6 games this year. But just because this is a low line doesn't mean it will end up like the SD game.

Of course not. But I am saying that playing big-name pitchers when it appears that there is a "good price" will lose more than win. Beckett will be over -200 the majority of his games. But now he is only -120 something or -130 something. He has been on fire and Burnett has struggled. I agree with you, it is a good price for Beckett considering the circumstances, which makes me believe he gets his first loss tonight. Just my $.02. GL on your bet, I won't be playing either side.

finite · Apr 21, 2006

Last 20 home games Burnetts team result 15-5. Seems hard to justify betting against him.

BC-Eagles · Apr 21, 2006

finite, have you seen beckett pitch? this season i mean

FairWarning · Apr 21, 2006

Clip Joint said:
The line on Peavy was low because he was facing a team much better than his and his team does not provide him with run support.

Exactly. He left the game with the lead for a PH.

quantumleap · Apr 21, 2006

HPark1 said:
Beckett could very well go 15-6 but you can't just say because of that prediction anything better than -300 is value. Boston is expected to win around 95 games so shouldn't anything under -170ish be value too? You have to look at every game individually. I'm sure Beckett will have a nice record against the lower echelon teams in the league. I doubt he'll have a 70%+ winning percentage against above 500 teams.

Burnett pitched pretty well in his opening game just being victimized twice by Konerko on two run homers. And that first homerun should never have really happened either as Thome was given the benefit of the doubt on what looked to be a strike on a full count. Anyways the difference between Burnett and Beckett is very small. They have practically identical era's over the past two seasons.

Also some bad blood for Beckett tonight after he overeacted and went beserk on Hllenbrand his last outing after he thought Shea showed him up after dropping his bat (thinking he had a walk) on a late strike call.

Yes, you're right HPark. I used a poor choice of words when I said "any time". I had hoped my original statement of not betting blindly would still be in people's minds when I made that statement.

Well it looks like Beckett gives up a couple dingers.

:Sad Face:

Good price for Beckett tonight

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