MLB: Fridays Plays

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Braves @ Nationals
Play: Braves -104
Comment:
Pros:

Don’t let the recent hitting surge by the Nationals fool you. It was more of a product of facing horrific pitching in a notorious hitter’s park than anything else. Having the luxury of these two variables ended Thursday, as they return to a pitchers park against an elite pitcher that has owned this team in years past. Smoltz finally returned to his old- dominant self in his last start, being able to go nine strong against the Padres. He had much more control of his pitches than in his first two starts, and finally looks like the pitcher that warrants this price. Smoltz has pitched this team as well as any other team in his long career. This includes last year, as the Nationals were unable to beat him in 5 tries, which include a couple solid outs at RFK. Smoltz has had success against all the hot hitters that have recently been swinging that bat well for the Nationals. He also has been known to be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when facing the younger lineups in the league such as the Nationals. The most important thing about Smoltz is his ability to go deep into games and avoid the struggling Braves bullpen which has been the demise to their season thus far. The Braves also got a much needed day off on Thursday, so their bullpen will be fresh and will have the ability to put in their best pitchers to backup Smoltz.

The Braves lineup is hitting the ball well so far this season. They have faced several solid pitchers this year, and have proven they could put up runs against most of them. Today they face another top pitcher. However, Patterson is a pitcher that seems to have not settled in on the mound yet, as he looked uncomfortable in 2 of his starts. Not helping matters is the fact that he will be pitching on six days rest, something that some pitchers have struggled handling. Patterson’s margin of error will be slim; as his run support will more than likely be limited. He is also backed by a bullpen that got a lot of work in against the Phillies, and has been known to struggle against this Braves lineup.

Cons:
The biggest worry in this game is fading Patterson in this spot, as he has been known to pitch the Braves well at home. He has had success against several quality Braves hitters. A wise may be to hedge a Braves bet with an under play here. Even though it was against an anemic pitching staff, the Nationals recent hitting success should have done wonders for the confidence that was low going into their last series.

Conclusion:
For even money, Braves bettors are getting the better starting pitcher, the more dangerous lineup, and a fresher bullpen. For even money, National bettors are getting home field advantage, in a place they have yet to win all year. I will take my chances with the Braves to win.



Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays +112
Comment:
Pros:

Don’t let the Red Sox record full you. They are not playing nearly as well as well as their record indicates. With the loss of several key Bonus Players in the off season, the injury to Crisp, and the recent struggles of Ramirez, the Red Sox lineup has become mediocre at best. Today Burnett makes his home debut against this struggling lineup, a lineup that has had very limited at bats against him. This does not bode well for Red Sox hitters, as Burnett is one of the most confusing pitchers in baseball whose style resembles Piniero’s, a pitcher that dominated the same Red Sox lineup last week. After a somewhat rough start against the White Sox, Burnett settled down and displayed good control over his pitches. This is a good sign, as he has the tendency to walk a lot of batters, while the Red Sox lineup is one of the best at drawing walks. The Red Sox also have the tendency of hitting better at home, and looked horrible at the plate yesterday. Burnett is backed by a bullpen that got a much needed day off yesterday.

Believe it or not, the Blue Jays have a better lineup than the Red Sox. It is also a lineup that got to face Beckett just last week, and now has seen what he has. Although Beckett has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball so far this year, his impressive start might lack some sustainability in this particular game. Beckett has always been known to be a much better home pitcher, and has struggled in past starts when making his first start in a particular stadium. If you look back at past years, Beckett is a pitcher that better pitches to a lineup in his first start than his second start in successive weeks. The Blue Jays have a lineup stacked with veteran hitters that could take advantage of the knowledge they learned from Beckett’s first start against him. Beckett is also backed by a poor bullpen that aside from their closer, continues to struggle.

Over the last three years, know other team has made for a better road fade than the Red Sox. Truth be told, they play .500 ball on the road, yet remain favorites in almost everyone of their road games; even when facing a quality home team and pitcher like the Blue Jays will put on the field today.

Cons:
It still might be a risk to lay money on Burnett right now. He has been known to lack mental fortitude, and his walk totals go up big time when he struggles mentally. Making his home debut against a former teammate might play with his mind and his control. This does not bode well for him, as the Red Sox are one of the best teams at drawing walks. Also, the last thing you want to do is give a struggling lineup free passes. Expecting a potentially dangerous lineup like the Red Sox to remain dormant might be a mistake. They also might not need too many runs, as Beckett has looked downright dominant in his first three starts. If he pitches anywhere near the level he did against the Blue Jays in his first start, they will struggle to win this game. Their best chance of winning this game is to get the Red Sox bullpen in as early as possible, which might be easier said than done.

Conclusion:
Wrong team favored him. The Blue Jays continue to remain one of the most underrated teams in the league, while the Red Sox remain one of the most overrated teams in baseball. Put the two together, and you have attractive value on the Blue Jays club tonight. I will take the home dog in this one.



Reds @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -134
Comment:
Pros:

This is a good spot for the Brewers to avenge last nights embarrassing loss. In his first start, Sheets pitched much better than his stats would indicate, and also pitched well in his two rehab starts prior. In the past, he has absolutely owned the Reds, as he comes into this game with a career ERA of 2.35 against them after 72 plus innings of work. Sheets is also a pitcher that seems to be much more comfortable at home, as his lifetime stats are much better in front of this home crowd. Sheets has had past success against all the best Reds hitters, as his style of pitching matches up well with the Reds style of hitting. Sheets loves to keep hitters off balance, and makes them swing at bad pitches. The Reds lineup lacks discipline, and is flooded with free swingers. Dunn has managed only 3 hits in 21 tries against sheets, while Kearns remains hitless in 9 tries against him. Sheets pitch counts should also be higher today, which bodes well for Brewers bettors as their bullpen has been struggling and overworked.

The Brewers are hitting as well as any other NL team the last few games, but their pitching has prevented it from showing in the win column. Today they will get a try to continue their success against a pitcher that is coming off his worst start of the season. Arroyo finally returned to his old stubborn self last week, and brings a pitching style that the Brewers batters match up well against. The Brewers hitters have consistently hit finesse pitchers like Arroyo well this year, and seem to be really seeing the ball well right now. Expect them to continue their success tonight and get the Reds anemic bullpen in the game earlier than the Reds would like

Cons:
Sheets might be a risk right now at this price, as he might be a volatile pitcher until he shows consistency. The Reds hitters have been crushing the ball the last few games, and seem capable of hitting anyone right now. They also seem to be playing with a lot of confidence, which does wonders for a young lineup like the one they have. If Sheets cant last long in this game, the chances of the Brewers winning decreases substantially, as the likelihood of the Brewers long relief leaving without allowing any runs is slim Arroyo is a solid road starter and faces a lineup that lacks experience against him. He likes to fool people and keep hitters off balance. Without any past experience against him, the Brewers bats may struggle.

Conclusion:
This is a perfect spot for a pitcher to cool off the Reds bats, as Sheets has owned the Reds in the past, and has a style designed to tame this Reds lineup. The same can not be said for Arroyo, as he brings a pitching style that the Brewers have faired well against so far this year. I am on the Brewers.



Twins @ White Sox
Play: Twins +104
Comment:
Pros:

Aside from last years playoffs, the White Sox have played the roll of bully the last year and a half, easily beating bad teams, but often struggling to show their strength against the better pitchers in the league. Unfortunately for them, they face a top tier pitcher today, a pitcher that embarrassed the White Sox last year, which included flirting with a no-hitter. Santana downright dominated this White Sox lineup last year, as he allowed only 4 runs in over 39 innings of work, and went 4 and 0 against them. Dye, Konerko and Uribe were 4 for 49 against him last year, while the hottest hitter on the team, Thome, has only managed one hit in 9 tries against him. This is a perfect spot for Santana to rebound from his early season underachievement, and to give their bullpen a much needed rest. When playing in such a hitter-friendly park, having this pitching advantage is magnified.

The Twins are an improved lineup from the one that often struggled against left handers last year. Although Buerhle is off to an impressive start this year, he lacks overpowering stuff. This often times possesses problems to finesse pitchers when facing a lineup of hitters that have a lot of at bats against him. There are a few hitters that have hit Buerhle well in the past on the Twins team, including new addition White. The Twins bats have also shown they could put runs on the board against good pitchers this year, something that they rarely did over the last few seasons. The White Sox bullpen is nowhere near the level it was last year, and has actually become an Achilles heal. This includes their closer, leading me to believe no potential lead is safe for the White Sox today.

Cons:
Santana makes for a better bet in the second half of the season. It is no surprise that he has been struggling in this young season, as he has been known to be a slow starter. This does not bode well for Twins bettors, as their bullpen pitched a lot of innings in their last two games, and have not looked good on the mound to boot. Buerhle is the biggest workhorse in the American League, and he, more than any other pitcher can avoid a struggling bullpen from stepping foot on the mound. He has faired well against the Twins in the past, and has had success against a few of their hitters. The White Sox bullpen got a much needed day off yesterday, which cannot be said for the Twins. Only getting even money for a road team against the defending world champs and their ace on the surface appears very unappealing. The White Sox bullpen also seems to be slowly improving.

Conclusion:
No other pitcher in baseball embarrassed a team more than Santana did to the White Sox last year. Whenever this particular pitcher comes with basis points, I will take it. I like the Twins tonight.



Tigers @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -104
Comment:
Pros:

Here is a perfect spot for regression to the mean to take place for Maroth, who has absolutely been pitching over his head in this first two starts. After dominating his first two opponents, Maroth now has to test his luck against a team that has hit him better than any other team in years past, as he comes into today’s game with an ERA of nearly 8 against this Mariners lineup. In his only start at Safeco last year, Maroth wasn’t able to finish the second inning before being taken out after allowing six runs. Tonight he faces three hitters that have dominated him in the past, while he has to face a few others that haven’t seen much of him, but have hit pitchers of his style well the last couple of years. Although the Mariners have really been struggling against left handed hitters this year, this deficiency lacks sustainability, as the hitters that have been struggling against southpaws, actually prefer left handed pitching. This is a good spot for them to get back on track, as they face a pitcher they have had success in the past against. The Tigers bullpen has really been struggling this year, including their closer Rodney, who looked bad on the mound yesterday. The Mariners have one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and they have a good opportunity to showcase it with the pitchers the Tigers put on the mound tonight.

This is also a perfect spot for Washburn to rebound, as he returns to a park that he loves pitching in. The Tigers hitters are coming off two draining series, and fatigue has shown with their lack of patience and clutch hitting at the plate. Although the Tigers have one of the best averages in the league, they have struggled all year against left handed pitching, including yesterday against Zito. I don’t see enough signs to make me feel that their fatigue are left handed pitching woes will reverse, as they traveled last night to play another west coast series against a pitcher of very similar styles that Zito possesses. Rarely do I say that having a teams closer more than likely unavailable is an asset. But with the way Guardado has been pitching this year, the last thing I want when betting on the Mariners is for him to step foot on the mound. After walking four batters in the ninth last night, look for the Mariners to look elsewhere if a save opportunity arises. Lastly, the Tigers clean up hitter, Ordonez, has managed only 2 hits in 21 at bats against Washburn.

Cons:
The Marines appear to be getting progressively worse at the plate, and go several innings without flirting with runs. This is concerning, as their main asset is their lineup depth and ability to score on top and bottom of the lineup. Maroth looks dialed in right now. I tend to shy away betting on a left handed pitcher when facing a team that just got done hitting a left hander in their previous game. Washburn is very similar to Zito, so the Tigers might be able use yesterdays game to their advantage. There are also several hitters that have hit Washburn well in the past, and the Tigers are a much better team against left handers than what they have shown year to date. The Mariners bullpen is a huge liability, and much thinner if they have to bump a set up man into the closer role.

Conclusion:
Washburn is a much better pitcher than what he has shown so far this year, while Maroth is much worse than what he has shown. Both lineups have recently been struggling, but expect the Mariners to have the better opportunity to break out of their funk. I will take the home team at even money.



Mets @ Padres
Play: Over 7.5
Comment:
Pros:

It was just a matter of time before the Mets potent lineup broke out of their hitting slump, and it occurred in last nights eighth innings as soon as the struggling Padres bullpen stepped on the mound. Tonight they could continue this trend, as they face a pitcher that they have hit well in the past, and a pitcher that simply does not match up well against this lineup. Williams comes into today’s game with an ERA of over 5 against the Mets, which includes three bad starts last year. There are a few hitters that have hit Williams well in the past, while a couple of other dangerous Mets hitters that have limited at bats against Williams. Williams is also a pitcher that just isn’t able to eat up innings, even when pitching well. This does not bode well for the under, as the Padres bullpen has pitched horrible this year, and is just overmatched by this dangerous Mets lineup.

Don’t let Bannister’s stats full you. He pitched much worse than his stats indicate in his last start, and was fortunate to not allow several runs against the Brewers. He has struggled with his walks and control in two of his starts, which is the last thing you want when going against a lineup that struggles to get hits. One thing the Padres lineup is, is patient. Expect them to make Bannister work, and force him to throw strikes. Even with his low ERA total, Bannister is still only averaging 6 innings a start. The Mets long relief staff is their Achilles heal, and should allow some opportunities for the Padres to put runs on the board. With the way Bannister has been pitching, his impressive ERA is just not sustainable. Also, the more film and scouting there is out on this guy, the advantage he has over hitters decreases.

Cons:
My biggest concern here is the home plate umpire, Hirshbeck, who has one of the biggest zones in the league. This is especially concerning, as the strike zone is highly influential for both these pitchers. Williams is a corner pitcher that lacks the quality of pitches to challenge hitters. Therefore, the quality of his starts is highly dependent on whether he is getting the corners called. Luckily for him, Hirechbeck is prone to giving him those pitches, which has shown in all four of his starts when Hirichshbeck is calling balls and strikes. Bannister has displayed a lack of control of his pitches. Therefore, a wide zone should help him out as well. Lastly, the Padres lineup is not the typical lineup you want in an over bet, and the same could be said about betting an over at Petco.

Conclusion:
If Hirshbeck and Petco will have an over, in my opinion, today is the day. These two pitches do not warrant such a low total. The Mets have a good opportunity to break out of their hitting funk, while Bannister can not keep his ERA down with the way he has been pitching. A buck-the- trend over play.

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#1 Spot
Joined
Nov 11, 2005
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Very good write-ups

I appreciate the time you took to write these..
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
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I'm on most of the same sides. I think ATL's lineup is actually a little weaker than WAZ's with all the injuries, and that combined with some other things put me on the Nat's. As you noted, Bannister is due for a serious correction, his 17% Hit number will normalize soon.
 

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