Will you bet a team in game 2 (baseball) if it wins game 1 at +150 or more

Iceman · Apr 21, 2006

example: Baltimore and Florida win tonite(game 1 of series) and are big dogs again tomorrow, will you not bet them because you feel it would be too hard to win 2 games in a row of over +150 and you are pushing you're luck.

I have and will continue to come back betting teams like Baltimore tomorrow but I do think it seems like they have a hard time comeing back in game two with the same kind of effort/results.

Santo · Apr 21, 2006

I Don't see that pushing luck has anything to do with it personally..

They have x% chance of winning tomorrow, where x > 0 and < 100, and x may or may not be affected by today's result (I tend to believe not)..

I'll bet them if the % implied by the price is substantially different than the % implied by my methodology, and having decided to favour them, I'll hunt out the ML's and RL's that will let me build a portfolio showcasing good odds on that outcome..

Iceman · Apr 21, 2006

I agree. Look for value and bet it. But it does seem more difficult to beat a BETTER team 2 in a row. Just a psychological thing for me!!!

Journeyman · Apr 21, 2006

I don't think it should matter either way in your decision...earlier this week Florida won a game then the next day was up 8-4 and choked, could have easily won back to back.

Horseshoe · Apr 21, 2006

Does anyone have the actual numbers for DH Splits/Sweeps over the last few years? It seems very disparate to true odds, always seems to come a Split amongst mostly equals, rather uncanny. Then there are the CWS and NYY of the world versus KC..-200+ every game.

Underdogs sweeping a double-bill is usually in spots of extreme swings of "current form" by both teams, and/or weird situations of having a team's number type deal.

I sometimes look for Roadies coming off an bullpen implosion or Umpire questionable strike-zone game the night before as an early Noon double-bill 1st Game Dog..often on a getaway day.

Will you bet a team in game 2 (baseball) if it wins game 1 at +150 or more

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