Not trying to sound like an expert because beleive me I am FAR from one(in the midst of a 6 game losing streak,ugh) but one thing I have noticed since betting bases and reading other posts is that the PUBLIC (not the sharps) have a HARD time putting a percentage/moneyline figure on a game.
I know this sounds kind of simple but I think it is so true. I think what happens when people look at other sports (basketball/football) is they think the game thru and say for example Detroit is about 5 points better than New York (football/basketball) and than adjust for home field, intangiables, etc.... and than compare to the pointspread and the PUBLIC than creates an EXTREMLEY SHARP line, where most gamblers are on an even playing field.
Now when they(the public) look at a baseball game not alot of gamblers estimate what the final score will be. The way to PUT A PRICE on a baseball game is to estimate what chance out of 100% does a team have of beating their opponent and than converting that to a moneyline. It becomes even more complicated when you throw in runlines and totals in bases with the different juices involved. I think most gamblers don't have a clue on what a price is converted to a moneyline and this creates more overlays and better underdogs than other sports. It's just something we as american gamblers just aren't used to and were not taught at a younger age
I think this difference seperates the sharp baseball capper from the public and makes baseball a bigger edge for the educated bettor and harder for the public to beat. Just something I have been thinking about as I am trying to teach one of buddies ( a first time bases bettor but a 15+ year hoops/football bettor) a little about baseball capping on boring saturday afternoon.
Any thoughts, anyone?
I know this sounds kind of simple but I think it is so true. I think what happens when people look at other sports (basketball/football) is they think the game thru and say for example Detroit is about 5 points better than New York (football/basketball) and than adjust for home field, intangiables, etc.... and than compare to the pointspread and the PUBLIC than creates an EXTREMLEY SHARP line, where most gamblers are on an even playing field.
Now when they(the public) look at a baseball game not alot of gamblers estimate what the final score will be. The way to PUT A PRICE on a baseball game is to estimate what chance out of 100% does a team have of beating their opponent and than converting that to a moneyline. It becomes even more complicated when you throw in runlines and totals in bases with the different juices involved. I think most gamblers don't have a clue on what a price is converted to a moneyline and this creates more overlays and better underdogs than other sports. It's just something we as american gamblers just aren't used to and were not taught at a younger age
I think this difference seperates the sharp baseball capper from the public and makes baseball a bigger edge for the educated bettor and harder for the public to beat. Just something I have been thinking about as I am trying to teach one of buddies ( a first time bases bettor but a 15+ year hoops/football bettor) a little about baseball capping on boring saturday afternoon.
Any thoughts, anyone?
