FHMESQ twist on SSI -1.5 system plays - Important Weekend

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2006

Those of you following SSI's road -1.5 system know how much of an abortion this weekend was. The unmodified system went 7-8, down something like 30 units.

I find this to be an important weekend and, although you may find it hard to believe, strengthened my believe in the modifications that SSI and I have individually made to the base system. My version ended up losing about 14.5 units on the weekend. HOWEVER, I am actually up .75 units on the week. I am not bragging by saying this, just want those following to know that after a weekend worse than any all of last year, I am still up on the week.

This weekend was worse than any weekend last season. Last season's worst series set was 7 losses, I believe it happened 3 times.

My variation of the system ended up 10-5 on the weekend as I faded Pitts, FL and TB, all for wins.

I think there are two things that can be taken from this weekend:

- money management - I didn't actually play the true Martingale 1-2-4 system. After the awful Friday I went only 1.5 units on Saturday and Sunday and kept the losses to a reasonable number (-3.5 units)

- FADE THE BAD TEAMS - As noted above, I banked series by fading Fla, TB and Pitts, and probably should have also faded Balt, Minny and maybe Arizona. I don't think Minny is a bad team by any means, but they are now 1-8 on the road and they were playing CWS.

Just some thoughts from the weekend. I am still on board for the long haul and believe we have a winning system.

Best of luck and thoughts are appreciated. We start anew tomorrow.

mike0187 · Apr 24, 2006

Yep, I ended up about one unit on the week. Tough weekend but oh well.

I see a lot of iffy series for me tomorrow. Will be interested in seeing which ones you are playing.

PatPatriot · Apr 24, 2006

I played it with MY twist and went 4-0 on series...4-2 on games for +2.64 units based on half units.

Bennyshoe · Apr 24, 2006

Can you share with us Pat what your twist entails?

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2006

Pat Patriot said:
I played it with MY twist and went 4-0 on series...4-2 on games for +2.64 units based on half units.

Nice work, as I noted, I think the base system is a good idea and will work. But there are two things that are very important, money management and not playing or fading the bad teams.

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2006

mike0187 said:
Yep, I ended up about one unit on the week. Tough weekend but oh well.

I see a lot of iffy series for me tomorrow. Will be interested in seeing which ones you are playing.

I am playing Oak, CWS, Det, Cincy, Col, Cubs, ATL, LAD (may change and fade this one and play Hou), STL, Ariz and NYM

PatPatriot · Apr 24, 2006

Benny and FHM,
My twist is based on historical trends between the two teams involved.

WorldNumberOne · Apr 24, 2006

you left out :

" and i owe it all to world number one for telling me to be careful and cut back on my risk "

edpit · Apr 24, 2006

I was wondering if you did the following:

If you only played the series in which you were fading the 6-8 worse teams only. I think this would bring in much more profit. Didnt all the series this weekend in which you faded the 6-8 worst teams actually close out its series with a win? Using the 1-2-4 method, you would have been ahead for the weekend, but I will check this out. Having said that, the only thing you would have to do is find those 6-8 teams and play against them on the RL.

Just my two cents anyway. I could be way off base here.

MathProf · Apr 24, 2006

If you had faded the worst teams I believe only KC would
have beat you. The long-run problem with this is that there is no
direct correlation between and terrible team having a bad road
record on the -1.5 runline and a home team having a great record
against them on the -1.5 runline.

Too many games might fall in the "one run win" category and in
those cases it doesn't matter who wins, all -1.5 wagers are losers.

I am personally using 1-2-4 and fading weak road teams against
only strong home teams (last series: HOu and CWS).

Also, using last year's stats only would ignore Detroits resurgence
on the road and Minn's terrible performance. I believe that the
series plays must be reviewed weekly and revised accordingly.

I am also considering multiple plays in same series - in carefully
selected situations.

All input appreciated and further kudos to SSI, FHM and PAT for
their efforts.

Good Luck
MP

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2006

MathProf is correct, KC would have beaten you, but fading TB, FLA and Pitts would have been wins. Depends who the other "worst" teams are. At this point that is all open to interpretation.

I went back through this past weekend and noticed that fiscal restraint (money management) actually HURT me. I ended up down about 14 units on the weekend. HOwever, had I played the true 1-2-4 system, fading the 3 teams I faded, I would have been 10-5 and down only 3 units.

If anything, this past weekend has strengthened my belief in this system. As I noted, last weekened was worse than any weekend all of last year and with the slight modifications I made (fading bad teams), I turned that weekend into a -3 unit weekend. If that doesn't strengthen your belief in the system, not sure what will. On to this week.