It’s been a disappointing start to this young season to say the least. Looking for things to reverse starting today, as I am going with an over and a small home favorite.
Rockies @ Phillies
Play: Over 9.5
Comment:
Pros:
Rarely do you see a single digit total in this ballpark, and I don’t think today’s is justified. Lidle has looked horrible so far this year, as he has been consistently missing his location with his pitches and is having problems with his sinker ball. These mistakes just can’t go unpunished in this ballpark, and it has shown with his stats so far this year, as he is allowing nearly 1.5 hits per inning. Lidle is looking to get things back on track, however, he must do it against a team that he has struggled pitching to his entire career. Lidle comes into today’s game with a near 6 era against the Rockies, which includes two horrific starts last year. Lidle has also struggled in this ballpark, as his sinker is consistently struggling to be kept low in the strike zone. The fact that the Rockies are without their best hitter Helton, certainly works in favor of the under. However, Helton is the only Rockies hitter that Lidle has had consistent success against. There are several young Rockies hitters that really hit Lidle well last year in limited at bats, including Holliday who is 6 for 12 including 3 home runs against Lidle. Lidle is also backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and a bullpen that struggles in long relief. Look for the Rockies to get good opportunities in each inning to put runs up on the board.
Although Fogg has started the season in impressive fashion, his finesse style isn’t the greatest style to take down this Phillies lineup. Fogg lacks the overpowering pitches and movement to counteract a power lineup, and should have his hand full today. He has struggled in the past against this Phillies team, and was one of the worst road pitchers last year. His early season success is a product of smoke and mirrors, as his three starts have been against the Padres twice and the Diamondbacks, lineups the lack the quality hitters the Phillies have. Fogg also has the propensity to allow a lot of home runs, a deficiency you don’t want to have when pitching in this park. The Rockies bullpen got a lot of work in during yesterdays extra inning game against the Giants. This does not bode well for them, as they will be without Dejean and potentially Fuentes due to injury.
The Phillies ballpark is an ideal ballpark for an over. It’s warmer than usual in Philadelphia, and balls should be jumping well today.
Cons:
Both lineups have been struggling recently, and have not shown discipline at the plate. Helton and Burrell are both out today, and their replacements are not nearly as dangerous. Fogg and Lidle have done a terrific job limiting their walks this year, so the two struggling lineups will have to get on using their bats in this game. The Phillies failed to produce many runs against an anemic Marlins pitching staff, and continue to underachieve this young season. The Rockies young lineup finally cooled off in their last series and is playing more to their ability right now. Betting an over with two lineups that have struggled at the plate their last two games has its risks.
Conclusion:
In my opinion, there is good value on the over in this game. Fogg should be overmatched by this ballpark and the Phillies lineup, while a struggling Lidle and Phillies bullpen have shown no signs of efficiency on the mound. I will take this single digit over.
Tigers @ Angels
Play: Angles -114
Comment:
Pros:
Although the Tigers certainly impressed me during this long west coast road trip, it is much more impressive on the surface. The Tigers were fortunate enough to play 2 teams that were right in the heart of their slump. Both the A’s and Mariners are arguably playing their worst ball you will see them play all year, and the Tigers found ways to win against them. Today they face a team that is showing signs of getting out of their early season funk. Playing a third west coast series in a row certainly has its effects on road teams, so this is a good spot for the Angels to cool of this surging Tigers team.
Rogers has started the season impressively, but also got the luxury of facing three slumping lineups. Last year, the Angels gave him more problems than any other team, which included two poor outings in Angel Stadium. Today he will face several veteran hitters that have seen Rogers numerous times, and knows his tendencies. The Angels are a team that heavily relies on one player to produce runs for them. Luckily, this player is Guerrero, one of the few hitters that have owned Rogers in the past. Guerrero has also been crushing left handed pitching this year. Last week I got burned fading Rogers, however, I see enough to make me think he doesn’t full me twice. Rogers isn’t known to eat up innings, and the Tigers weakest link is their long relief.
Santana is a hit or miss pitcher. He is either dominant or dominated. However, one thing remains consistent with him. He usually bounces back well from poor outings, and he is a much better pitcher at home. Luckily for Angels bettors, he is coming off his worst outing of the season, and is pitching at home. Santana has looked impressive so far this year, as he seems to have more poise and control of his pitches when compared to last year. He comes into today’s game with a career era of 3.10 at home, which is 3.5 runs less than it is on the road. In his only start against the Tigers last year, he was able to go 8 innings and allowed only 1 run and 4 hits. The Tigers lineup has cooled off since their last home stand, while the Angels bullpen has pitched well the last few games. Expect the Tigers to have a difficult time producing runs, which could prove costly if Rogers continues to struggle against this Angels lineup.
Cons:
Rogers is a much better fade later in the season, where he is more prone to getting worn down and showing his age. The first two months is when he will pitch his best baseball. The Tigers have a lot of momentum heading into this game, and have a young lineup that seems to be playing with a lot of confidence. Their bullpen has pitched much better recently and is now much deeper with the return of Jones in the closer role. The Angels have a mediocre lineup at best, and it’s now a lineup that you want backing a volatile pitcher like Santana. Santana always makes for a risky bet, and if he doesn’t have his best stuff, this bet will be over quickly. Rodriguez has pitched 2 days in a row, and usually doesn’t showcase his best stuff the day following two consecutive days of work.
Conclusion:
If you are going to bet Santana, you do it at home and when he is coming off a poor outing. Great value on the Angels today, as the public is putting too much into the Tigers recent winning streak, and is failing to realize the lucky timing they have received when playing their opponents. Taking the Angels as a small favorite is an intriguing bet in my opinion.
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Rockies @ Phillies
Play: Over 9.5
Comment:
Pros:
Rarely do you see a single digit total in this ballpark, and I don’t think today’s is justified. Lidle has looked horrible so far this year, as he has been consistently missing his location with his pitches and is having problems with his sinker ball. These mistakes just can’t go unpunished in this ballpark, and it has shown with his stats so far this year, as he is allowing nearly 1.5 hits per inning. Lidle is looking to get things back on track, however, he must do it against a team that he has struggled pitching to his entire career. Lidle comes into today’s game with a near 6 era against the Rockies, which includes two horrific starts last year. Lidle has also struggled in this ballpark, as his sinker is consistently struggling to be kept low in the strike zone. The fact that the Rockies are without their best hitter Helton, certainly works in favor of the under. However, Helton is the only Rockies hitter that Lidle has had consistent success against. There are several young Rockies hitters that really hit Lidle well last year in limited at bats, including Holliday who is 6 for 12 including 3 home runs against Lidle. Lidle is also backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and a bullpen that struggles in long relief. Look for the Rockies to get good opportunities in each inning to put runs up on the board.
Although Fogg has started the season in impressive fashion, his finesse style isn’t the greatest style to take down this Phillies lineup. Fogg lacks the overpowering pitches and movement to counteract a power lineup, and should have his hand full today. He has struggled in the past against this Phillies team, and was one of the worst road pitchers last year. His early season success is a product of smoke and mirrors, as his three starts have been against the Padres twice and the Diamondbacks, lineups the lack the quality hitters the Phillies have. Fogg also has the propensity to allow a lot of home runs, a deficiency you don’t want to have when pitching in this park. The Rockies bullpen got a lot of work in during yesterdays extra inning game against the Giants. This does not bode well for them, as they will be without Dejean and potentially Fuentes due to injury.
The Phillies ballpark is an ideal ballpark for an over. It’s warmer than usual in Philadelphia, and balls should be jumping well today.
Cons:
Both lineups have been struggling recently, and have not shown discipline at the plate. Helton and Burrell are both out today, and their replacements are not nearly as dangerous. Fogg and Lidle have done a terrific job limiting their walks this year, so the two struggling lineups will have to get on using their bats in this game. The Phillies failed to produce many runs against an anemic Marlins pitching staff, and continue to underachieve this young season. The Rockies young lineup finally cooled off in their last series and is playing more to their ability right now. Betting an over with two lineups that have struggled at the plate their last two games has its risks.
Conclusion:
In my opinion, there is good value on the over in this game. Fogg should be overmatched by this ballpark and the Phillies lineup, while a struggling Lidle and Phillies bullpen have shown no signs of efficiency on the mound. I will take this single digit over.
Tigers @ Angels
Play: Angles -114
Comment:
Pros:
Although the Tigers certainly impressed me during this long west coast road trip, it is much more impressive on the surface. The Tigers were fortunate enough to play 2 teams that were right in the heart of their slump. Both the A’s and Mariners are arguably playing their worst ball you will see them play all year, and the Tigers found ways to win against them. Today they face a team that is showing signs of getting out of their early season funk. Playing a third west coast series in a row certainly has its effects on road teams, so this is a good spot for the Angels to cool of this surging Tigers team.
Rogers has started the season impressively, but also got the luxury of facing three slumping lineups. Last year, the Angels gave him more problems than any other team, which included two poor outings in Angel Stadium. Today he will face several veteran hitters that have seen Rogers numerous times, and knows his tendencies. The Angels are a team that heavily relies on one player to produce runs for them. Luckily, this player is Guerrero, one of the few hitters that have owned Rogers in the past. Guerrero has also been crushing left handed pitching this year. Last week I got burned fading Rogers, however, I see enough to make me think he doesn’t full me twice. Rogers isn’t known to eat up innings, and the Tigers weakest link is their long relief.
Santana is a hit or miss pitcher. He is either dominant or dominated. However, one thing remains consistent with him. He usually bounces back well from poor outings, and he is a much better pitcher at home. Luckily for Angels bettors, he is coming off his worst outing of the season, and is pitching at home. Santana has looked impressive so far this year, as he seems to have more poise and control of his pitches when compared to last year. He comes into today’s game with a career era of 3.10 at home, which is 3.5 runs less than it is on the road. In his only start against the Tigers last year, he was able to go 8 innings and allowed only 1 run and 4 hits. The Tigers lineup has cooled off since their last home stand, while the Angels bullpen has pitched well the last few games. Expect the Tigers to have a difficult time producing runs, which could prove costly if Rogers continues to struggle against this Angels lineup.
Cons:
Rogers is a much better fade later in the season, where he is more prone to getting worn down and showing his age. The first two months is when he will pitch his best baseball. The Tigers have a lot of momentum heading into this game, and have a young lineup that seems to be playing with a lot of confidence. Their bullpen has pitched much better recently and is now much deeper with the return of Jones in the closer role. The Angels have a mediocre lineup at best, and it’s now a lineup that you want backing a volatile pitcher like Santana. Santana always makes for a risky bet, and if he doesn’t have his best stuff, this bet will be over quickly. Rodriguez has pitched 2 days in a row, and usually doesn’t showcase his best stuff the day following two consecutive days of work.
Conclusion:
If you are going to bet Santana, you do it at home and when he is coming off a poor outing. Great value on the Angels today, as the public is putting too much into the Tigers recent winning streak, and is failing to realize the lucky timing they have received when playing their opponents. Taking the Angels as a small favorite is an intriguing bet in my opinion.
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