First crack at the bases for me here at the RX...
Taking a stab at a few totals today.
CIN at WAS - Hoye behind the plate, his first game was a 5-1 Tampa win in Boston as Kazmir outdueled Wakefield. From what I watched that night, his strike zone was excessively large (11 Ks to 3 BBs, but many times hitters were behind in the count).
Everyone knows the size of RFK, and last night they only put up 6 runs. Hoye's only game there was last year, a 14-1 Houston romp that I throw out.
Traber's only start this year was semi-quality in Philly, allowing just 2 hits but 4 walks in 5 2/3 in a 10-4 win. Williams has flat-out sucked for Cincy but Washington is only 1-4 in 5 games against LH starters, amassing a whopping 14 runs in the process. Also, the Senators have not faced a lefty since April 15.
With the teams scoring a total of 8 runs in all three games at RFK last year and six in the first one this season, here's saying Williams turns it around a little tonight. This game has all the makings of a 5-2 or 5-3 game either way, at MOST... Realize I'm going against the grain but oh well...
The play: 642 to win 600 at Pinny UNDER 9.5 (-107)...
FLA at CUB - Runge behind the plate, and he's an under's dream with his 61.6 percent strikes-to-balls. His first two games this year went sailing over due to poor pitching, and while that might happen again today, these two teams aren't tearing the cover off the ball. The last Runge game was in the Bronx, where the 'Moose' outdueled Lilly and both pitchers were the recipients of the large strike zone we're accustomed to with Runge.
This number is low, but for a good reason. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley and the D-Train has a sparkling 2.92 ERA (though is only 1-0, and the Fish are 0-3 in his no-decisions)... In his last Wrigley start, Willis outdueled Maddux 2-1 Aug. 27, 2005. He also beat Koronka last June at Wrigley, 9-1.
Marshall is 1-0, and the Chubs are 3-0 in his starts. His 6.28 ERA is cause for concern, as is the fact but his 1.12 WHIP is a quarter-of-a-run better than Willis's, and the Fish aren't exactly a lineup laden with RBI hitters.
With this total being so low, it's hard to get overly excited but the numbers are there to support a play with it opening a tad higher than I had written down (I had 7 under-15 as the ideal opener). IN from 10-15 from Right-center tonight and the wind chill will be 38. Those heaters from Willis should sting the Chub batters and keep the winning team from scoring more than 4 runs.
The play: 300 to win 321 at Pinny UNDER 7 (+107)...
OAK at TEX - Not sure who was in charge of coming up with 10 as an opening total here, even at under -120. Guess it's a ballpark thing.
Reed is a slight UNDER guy in the past, and this year his strike count of 60.2 percent is close to making him a 'club' member... He's gone under in 3 of 5 behind the plate to this point.
Zito has been great in 2 of his four starts. Throw out the Yankee game on Opening night and his ERA is 2.70 in the last three, though he did get roughed up a bit (some bad luck in there with some flair hits too) against Texas in a 6-3 loss back on April 14.
Assuming he doesn't revert back to his first or third starts (admittedly, a decent 'IF'...) in his fifth, UNDER is certainly the play.
Padilla has had three quality starts in his four games this year - 5 ER in those 3 but 5 ER in 5 IP in Oakland on April 15, his only loss. He has thrown at least 88 pitches in all four starts this year, so he'll give the Strangers several good innings, as his 2-0 home record and 3.00 ERA would indicate (and his 1.38 ERA at night). Crosby is questionable for OAK and Street is a probable no-go again (though with Durscherer getting the save last night, Street is prolly sweating in his shoes anyway at this point).
With several of my shops showing 10 UNDER -120, I'll take a stab at UNDER 9.5 EVEN money with CRIS. This game should fall 8 or less, but 9 still gets the cash.
The play: 500 to win 500 at CRIS on TEX U 9.5 (+100)...
DET at ANA - The Tigers are not hitting well at all right now. No UMP trend either way in this one according to my figs. I was considering a small bet on OVER 9 plus 135 at Hollywood but there's no reason to get trigger-happy with Detroit's lack of hitting, even against a spot-starter tonight for Anaheim.
ARZ at SDG - Wanted to pull trigger on UNDER here too, as B. Welke is an UNDER guy but the value has been gone for a couple of hours, missed it...
CHW at SEA - Hunter Wendlestedt and his 62.1 strike percentage rears its head at Safeco tonight.
No time for long writeup here, but Piniero has been outstanding thus far. He throws a lot of pitches but does not give up a lot of runs (5 is most all year, and has gone at least 5 but no more than 7 in any of his four starts, despite throwing at least 98 pitches in each of them). Vasquez threw 8 innings of shutout ball for his first win last time out and might be rounding into form.
This line looked a touch high as well, as I had 8-flat written down.
The play: 545 to win 500 on UNDER 8.5 (-109) at Pinnacle
Good luck gents!
:drink:
Taking a stab at a few totals today.
CIN at WAS - Hoye behind the plate, his first game was a 5-1 Tampa win in Boston as Kazmir outdueled Wakefield. From what I watched that night, his strike zone was excessively large (11 Ks to 3 BBs, but many times hitters were behind in the count).
Everyone knows the size of RFK, and last night they only put up 6 runs. Hoye's only game there was last year, a 14-1 Houston romp that I throw out.
Traber's only start this year was semi-quality in Philly, allowing just 2 hits but 4 walks in 5 2/3 in a 10-4 win. Williams has flat-out sucked for Cincy but Washington is only 1-4 in 5 games against LH starters, amassing a whopping 14 runs in the process. Also, the Senators have not faced a lefty since April 15.
With the teams scoring a total of 8 runs in all three games at RFK last year and six in the first one this season, here's saying Williams turns it around a little tonight. This game has all the makings of a 5-2 or 5-3 game either way, at MOST... Realize I'm going against the grain but oh well...
The play: 642 to win 600 at Pinny UNDER 9.5 (-107)...
FLA at CUB - Runge behind the plate, and he's an under's dream with his 61.6 percent strikes-to-balls. His first two games this year went sailing over due to poor pitching, and while that might happen again today, these two teams aren't tearing the cover off the ball. The last Runge game was in the Bronx, where the 'Moose' outdueled Lilly and both pitchers were the recipients of the large strike zone we're accustomed to with Runge.
This number is low, but for a good reason. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley and the D-Train has a sparkling 2.92 ERA (though is only 1-0, and the Fish are 0-3 in his no-decisions)... In his last Wrigley start, Willis outdueled Maddux 2-1 Aug. 27, 2005. He also beat Koronka last June at Wrigley, 9-1.
Marshall is 1-0, and the Chubs are 3-0 in his starts. His 6.28 ERA is cause for concern, as is the fact but his 1.12 WHIP is a quarter-of-a-run better than Willis's, and the Fish aren't exactly a lineup laden with RBI hitters.
With this total being so low, it's hard to get overly excited but the numbers are there to support a play with it opening a tad higher than I had written down (I had 7 under-15 as the ideal opener). IN from 10-15 from Right-center tonight and the wind chill will be 38. Those heaters from Willis should sting the Chub batters and keep the winning team from scoring more than 4 runs.
The play: 300 to win 321 at Pinny UNDER 7 (+107)...
OAK at TEX - Not sure who was in charge of coming up with 10 as an opening total here, even at under -120. Guess it's a ballpark thing.
Reed is a slight UNDER guy in the past, and this year his strike count of 60.2 percent is close to making him a 'club' member... He's gone under in 3 of 5 behind the plate to this point.
Zito has been great in 2 of his four starts. Throw out the Yankee game on Opening night and his ERA is 2.70 in the last three, though he did get roughed up a bit (some bad luck in there with some flair hits too) against Texas in a 6-3 loss back on April 14.
Assuming he doesn't revert back to his first or third starts (admittedly, a decent 'IF'...) in his fifth, UNDER is certainly the play.
Padilla has had three quality starts in his four games this year - 5 ER in those 3 but 5 ER in 5 IP in Oakland on April 15, his only loss. He has thrown at least 88 pitches in all four starts this year, so he'll give the Strangers several good innings, as his 2-0 home record and 3.00 ERA would indicate (and his 1.38 ERA at night). Crosby is questionable for OAK and Street is a probable no-go again (though with Durscherer getting the save last night, Street is prolly sweating in his shoes anyway at this point).
With several of my shops showing 10 UNDER -120, I'll take a stab at UNDER 9.5 EVEN money with CRIS. This game should fall 8 or less, but 9 still gets the cash.
The play: 500 to win 500 at CRIS on TEX U 9.5 (+100)...
DET at ANA - The Tigers are not hitting well at all right now. No UMP trend either way in this one according to my figs. I was considering a small bet on OVER 9 plus 135 at Hollywood but there's no reason to get trigger-happy with Detroit's lack of hitting, even against a spot-starter tonight for Anaheim.
ARZ at SDG - Wanted to pull trigger on UNDER here too, as B. Welke is an UNDER guy but the value has been gone for a couple of hours, missed it...
CHW at SEA - Hunter Wendlestedt and his 62.1 strike percentage rears its head at Safeco tonight.
No time for long writeup here, but Piniero has been outstanding thus far. He throws a lot of pitches but does not give up a lot of runs (5 is most all year, and has gone at least 5 but no more than 7 in any of his four starts, despite throwing at least 98 pitches in each of them). Vasquez threw 8 innings of shutout ball for his first win last time out and might be rounding into form.
This line looked a touch high as well, as I had 8-flat written down.
The play: 545 to win 500 on UNDER 8.5 (-109) at Pinnacle
Good luck gents!
:drink:
