MLB: Tuesday Plays

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Orioles @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -136
Comment:
Pros:

This match consists of two good pitchers off to a rough start. In my opinion, this game provides a better opportunity for Chacin to return to form. After facing several difficult lineups this year, Chacin now gets the opportunity to face the worst hitting lineup against left handers this year. Much like last year, the Orioles have struggled immensely this year against left handed pitching. They come into today’s game hitting .167 against them, and have only managed 9 runs against them. Chacin has always pitched this Orioles team well in his career, including last year. He comes into today’s game with an ERA well under 3 against this lineup. So far this year, Tejada is the only Orioles hitter hitting left handed pitching well. However, he still has yet to figure out Chacin, as he has only managed 3 hits in 15 at bats against him in his career. Mora remains hitless in 12 tries against him. In the past, Chacin lacked run support when facing the Orioles. However, this year, the Blue Jays lineup is much improved, and should supply him the adequate run support this time around. He is also backed by an improved bullpen that got the day off yesterday, including a lefty closer that should handle this lineup rather easily.
Heading into the weekend, the Orioles lineup was one of the hottest in the league. But they finally came back to earth, only managing one run in each of their last two games.

Lopez is also off to a slow start. But unlike Chacin, Lopez is owned by his opponent today, lacks the quality bats to provide him run support, and lacks a decent bullpen to back him up once he leaves the game. No other team has hit Lopez better in his career than the Blue Jays. He comes into today’s game with an era well over 7 against the Blue Jays, which includes a couple of bad outings last year. Lopez is a much better pitcher at home, and has never faired well when pitching in Rogers Centre. It’s hard to assume he will now start pitching the Blue Jays better, as they are now a much more dangerous lineup than the ones he faced in years past. Lopez is also backed by a poor bullpen that also should be overmatched by this lineup. There are several hitters in today’s lineup that have faired well against both Lopez and a couple of Orioles bullpen pitchers.

Cons:
Chacin has yet to resemble the impressive pitcher he was last year. His walk total is up, and he is coming off two starts where he allowed a couple of home runs. Until he shows he could pitch to his ability, betting on him may be a bit of a risk. The Blue Jays lineup has been helped out a lot by the two new additions, Glauss and Molina. However, both have struggled against Lopez in their career. Lopez has been known to bounce back rather well from consecutive poor outings, know matter the lineup he faces. Even though he has some horrid career totals against the Blue Jays, there isn’t one player in today’s lineup that has owned him. The Orioles have played well on the road this year, and have faced a difficult schedule so far. They have proven they could compete with the better teams in the American League.

Conclusion:
In my opinion, there is good value on the home favorite today. The Blue Jays remain one of the more under priced teams in baseball year to date, while the public is putting to much stock into how well the Orioles have played in the last week. I will gladly bet on one of the premier young left handers against this Orioles lineup. At this price, I am getting the overall better team, the home team, the better lineup, the better pitcher and better bullpen. What a bargain.
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Red Sox @ Indians
Play: Indians +124
Comment:
Pros:

Once again the Red Sox are greatly overvalued on the road. After four solid starts, the public is once again falling in love with Schilling. However, what they are failing to realize is the fact that he got the luxury of facing 4 slumping lineups at the time of each one of his starts. Today will be his first tests, as he faces one of the deepest lineups in baseball on the road. Schilling has yet to face this Indians lineup since they improved last year. Schilling loves pitching against lineups with hitters that he has faced numerous times, as he, more than any other pitcher in baseball, has the ability to learn, improve, and capitalize on hitters tendencies. However, he lacks that experience against almost every Indians hitter in tonight’s lineup. Therefore, he lacks the embedded advantage he usually has coming into almost every one of his starts. He is also coming off four consecutive starts in which he gathered a high pitch count. It’s hard to tell whether or not that will stunt his effectiveness tonight. The Red sox bullpen continues to be one of the biggest disappointments in the league, and aside from their closer, are a huge liability who struggled against this Indians lineup last year.

Westbrook is coming off one of his capitulating starts which he suffers a few times a year. He has been known to bounce back well from these starts in years past. Westbrook is one of those pitchers you love to bet on as a home dog rather than a favorite, as he is a hit or miss pitcher. He has the ability to be dominant against the better lineups in the league, and struggle against the worst lineups in the league. In the past, he has not had trouble with the Red Sox or any of their hitters (in limited at bats). The Red Sox lineup is not nearly as dangerous as it was the last couple of years, yet continues to get the unwarranted respect from line makers. The Indians bullpen was much overworked in their last series, so a much needed day off yesterday will work into their advantage.

The Indians are coming off a very disappointing series in which they lost to the worst team in baseball. Fatigue was certainly a part of a cause after their road trip. They now got a day off to think about it, and finally get to play at home, where they are one of the most dangerous teams in baseball.

Cons:
Schilling has been downright dominant so far this year, and has not shown any signs of breaking out of this streak. This is especially concerning, as the Red Sox bullpen is the liability that gives their opponents the best chance of beating them. Manny finally showed signs of breaking out of his early season funk in his last series where he hit the ball really well. The Indians bats seem not to be seeing the ball well, and have not provided clutch hitting in recent games. Their bullpen has also been a nightmare, and if Westbrook is unable to eat up innings, the Red Sox should have the upper hand in this game.

Conclusion:
Rarely do you see the Indians this big of a dog at home. In my opinion, this is not the spot in which it is warranted. I will gladly fade the most overrated road team in baseball, and take my chances with the home dog.
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Rockies @ Phillies
Play: Phillies -156
Comment:
Pros:

It seems that lines makers have quickly forgotten the fact that the Rockies have been the worst road team in baseball over the last few years, due to their solid road play in their first 7 road games this year. Today they send a pitcher who hasn’t started a major league game in nearly three years to face one of the most stacked lineups in a notorious hitter’s park. Asencio has not seemed to bounce back as well as expected from his elbow injury a couple of years back. He was having a sub par performance in triple A before being called up due to default. He lacks the durability to eat up innings, and should not achieve avoiding the Rockies bullpen. Control has always been his downfall, which is a deficiency you just don’t want in this ballpark. Walking hitters in this park and against the Phillies lineup can prove costly really fast. The Phillies lineup is also slowly getting better. The switch of Utley to the second spot makes the lineup more dangerous and well balanced.

The Rockies lineup has started to cool off the last few games. This is comforting, as Floyd has not pitched well so far this year. However, Floyd is a pitcher that has the ability to be dominant, and matches up much better against younger lineups as he has the tendency of telegraphing his pitches. This is a good spot for him to finally put forth a decent outing. Most comforting is the fact that he should get adequate run support that should help him minimizes the effects of a potentially poor outing. He is also backed by a bullpen that appears to be pitching much better in recent series.

Cons:
Rarely do I bet favorites this big. And almost never do I bet favorites this big when backed by such an unproven pitcher. The Phillies continue to underachieve, while the Rockies have been one of the best road hitting teams so far this young season. The Rockies have a deep bullpen that they didn’t posses in years past. Don’t expect Asencio to pitch too many innings today, as the Rockies have confidence in their long relief. The same cannot be said for the Phillies long relief, who haven’t helped a struggling pitchers cause so far year to date.

Conclusion:
Over the last few years, the Rockies are rarely this small of an underdog on the road. I just don’t see why they are today as they send a minor league pitcher that they called up due to default. Expect him to be overmatched by this lineup and this ballpark, allowing Floyd some margin off error. In my opinion, even at this price, the Phillies are slightly undervalued.
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Mets @ Giants
Play: Mets +100
Comment:
Pros:

This game is much the inverse of the Orioles/Blue Jays game, as it possesses two pitchers that are overachieving so far year to date. However, it is Wright who is most likely to get a reality check tonight. Wright is pitching way over his head so far this year, and has had the luxury of facing two anemic lineups in his last two starts. He has always struggled against the Mets, as he comes into today’s game with a near 6 era against him. He has also always been a much better pitcher on the road, as he comes into today’s game with a career home ERA of 6. His worst start this year was unsurprisingly his only home start. Wright lacks the overpowering pitches or control to keep pitching this well, and he actually struggled with his control in his last start. His tendency of getting out of jams and masking his high walk total might come to an end today, as he faces one of the deepest lineups in baseball. The Giants long relief has been the worst in baseball, and no lead is safe once they step foot on the mound. Expect the Mets to have good opportunities to score throughout the game tonight, and shake out of their west coast hitting funk they have been in.

Trachsel also might be overachieving so far this year. However, this is not the spot for him to get his reality check, as he has been known as the Giants killer. Trachsel has dominated the Giants throughout his career, including some very impressive starts in very important games in years past. He comes into today’s game with a career era of 2.57 against this club in over 120 innings of work. He has also pitched several gems in this ballpark. There are several Giants hitters that he has pitched well against his entire career, including Bonds, who has managed only 2 home runs in 41 at bats against him. Bonds is clearly not as dangerous as he once was, and leaves a huge void in their lineup that the Giants once had. The Giants lack the ideal role players that could hit Trachsel and counteract Wrights potential downfall tonight. The Mets bullpen is much better than the Giants, and got some rest last night, as Glavine was able to pitch deep into last nights game.

Cons:
The Mets hitters have seemed to hit a road block in this west coast road trip, and surprisingly seem lost without an overrated Beltran in the lineup. Wright is clearly a better pitcher this year, as he has carried over his dominant Spring Training into the regular season. The return of Benitez makes a suspect Giants bullpen deeper. At the moment, the Giants are playing better than the Mets.

Conclusion:
Here you have one pitcher that owns his opponent, while the other is owned by his. The Mets have the better lineup and bullpen to go along with this asset. I will take them at even money.
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