I will be up with the late games later today.
Tigers @ Angels
Play: Angels -127
Comment:
Pros:
Last week I got burned going against Maroth, as I doubted the sustainability of his impressive early season pitching performance. I have no problem doing it again today, as I strongly feel he lacks the quality pitches to become a top tier pitcher like the one he is pitching like so far year to date. Maroth has struggled pitching to this Angels lineup in years past, especially inside Angel Stadium, as he comes into today’s game with an ERA well over 6 in this ballpark. In Maroth’s first three starts, he faced power lineups that heavily rely on extra base hits to drive in runs. This suits him well as he is a finesse pitcher that is progressively getting better at keeping the ball down, forcing the needed groundballs to counteract the power in the opponent’s lineup. However, the Angels lineup is a lineup designed to manufacturer runs, an approach that excels against finesse pitchers. Their lineup heavily relies on Guerrero to produce runs, so analyzing how he matches up against the opponent is vital. Guerrero has been on a tear this year hitting left handed pitching, as he comes into today’s game hitting .500 against them. He has also had past success against Maroth, and the same could be said for a couple other Angel’s hitters in today’s lineup. Maroth has also been complaining about some elbow pain that might hinder his pitching ability and limit his pitch count. The Tigers bullpen is still their weak point no matter how well they have been pitching as of late.
This is also the Tigers 9th consecutive west coast road game, and one has to question how much is left in the tank to play today, especially following a late night game played last night.
Lackey has the goods to take advantage of a tired lineup, as the hardest pitch to hit when fatigued is the high fastball, a pitch Lackey heavily relies on. After a rough start to open the season, Lackey has looked really good on the mound. He is coming off an impressive start where he allowed two hits, and was able to get himself out of a lot of jams caused by his walks. Lackey has always been a much better pitcher at home than on the road, and pitched well in day games last year (following a year that people wondered if he can’t pitch during day games). Lackey has had success against a couple dangerous hitters in today’s lineup. One also has to wonder if the Tigers will elect to bench a starter or two in today’s game. Lackey is also backed by an elite bullpen that should make it hard for the Tigers to score runs in each inning today.
Cons:
Maroth is pitching better right now than he has ever pitched. Fading him when he is at the pinnacle of his career can prove to be a costly mistake, as it was last week. The Angels have a very overrated lineup that really struggles to score runs. They also haven’t done much against left handed pitching this year. Although Lackey allowed only two runs in his last outing, he seemed to really struggle with his control. Walking seven batters is something that you can’t afford against a lineup as dangerous and as deep as the one the Tigers will put in the box today. Maroth’s past struggles against the Angels occurred 2 years ago and beyond, as he put forth a couple impressive outings last year against this ball club. The same can not be said for Lackey, as he struggled pitching to the Tigers lineup in a couple of starts last year.
Conclusion:
In my opinion, there is good value on the Angels in today’s game. The public is putting too much stock into Maroth’s recent outings, and are failing to realize the lack of sustainability it might have. They are also failing to realize the fatigue factor in this game, as it’s always hard to play 9 west coast road games in a row, especially a day game following a night game. Expect the Angels to take the rubber match today, and as a small favorite, I am willing to take that risk.
Tigers @ Angels
Play: Angels -127
Comment:
Pros:
Last week I got burned going against Maroth, as I doubted the sustainability of his impressive early season pitching performance. I have no problem doing it again today, as I strongly feel he lacks the quality pitches to become a top tier pitcher like the one he is pitching like so far year to date. Maroth has struggled pitching to this Angels lineup in years past, especially inside Angel Stadium, as he comes into today’s game with an ERA well over 6 in this ballpark. In Maroth’s first three starts, he faced power lineups that heavily rely on extra base hits to drive in runs. This suits him well as he is a finesse pitcher that is progressively getting better at keeping the ball down, forcing the needed groundballs to counteract the power in the opponent’s lineup. However, the Angels lineup is a lineup designed to manufacturer runs, an approach that excels against finesse pitchers. Their lineup heavily relies on Guerrero to produce runs, so analyzing how he matches up against the opponent is vital. Guerrero has been on a tear this year hitting left handed pitching, as he comes into today’s game hitting .500 against them. He has also had past success against Maroth, and the same could be said for a couple other Angel’s hitters in today’s lineup. Maroth has also been complaining about some elbow pain that might hinder his pitching ability and limit his pitch count. The Tigers bullpen is still their weak point no matter how well they have been pitching as of late.
This is also the Tigers 9th consecutive west coast road game, and one has to question how much is left in the tank to play today, especially following a late night game played last night.
Lackey has the goods to take advantage of a tired lineup, as the hardest pitch to hit when fatigued is the high fastball, a pitch Lackey heavily relies on. After a rough start to open the season, Lackey has looked really good on the mound. He is coming off an impressive start where he allowed two hits, and was able to get himself out of a lot of jams caused by his walks. Lackey has always been a much better pitcher at home than on the road, and pitched well in day games last year (following a year that people wondered if he can’t pitch during day games). Lackey has had success against a couple dangerous hitters in today’s lineup. One also has to wonder if the Tigers will elect to bench a starter or two in today’s game. Lackey is also backed by an elite bullpen that should make it hard for the Tigers to score runs in each inning today.
Cons:
Maroth is pitching better right now than he has ever pitched. Fading him when he is at the pinnacle of his career can prove to be a costly mistake, as it was last week. The Angels have a very overrated lineup that really struggles to score runs. They also haven’t done much against left handed pitching this year. Although Lackey allowed only two runs in his last outing, he seemed to really struggle with his control. Walking seven batters is something that you can’t afford against a lineup as dangerous and as deep as the one the Tigers will put in the box today. Maroth’s past struggles against the Angels occurred 2 years ago and beyond, as he put forth a couple impressive outings last year against this ball club. The same can not be said for Lackey, as he struggled pitching to the Tigers lineup in a couple of starts last year.
Conclusion:
In my opinion, there is good value on the Angels in today’s game. The public is putting too much stock into Maroth’s recent outings, and are failing to realize the lack of sustainability it might have. They are also failing to realize the fatigue factor in this game, as it’s always hard to play 9 west coast road games in a row, especially a day game following a night game. Expect the Angels to take the rubber match today, and as a small favorite, I am willing to take that risk.
