Wednesday's MLB...

Rocky 1-3 start and lose 1366 yesterday... Thanks to Soriano misplaying two balls in LF and hitting a HR, he obviously had the OVER... and the Texas pen gives up 2 in the 9th to stick it in me as well... oh well, onto today's mess...

Didn't like anything early, though I did see value in betting Duke at that ridiculous price against Mulder.

Cubs game is difficult. Emmell has been a OVER ump early this year (3-1... But his last 5 CUB have gone UNDER and his last 8 are 0-7 with 1 push.....

Guzman is making his ML debut. In Iowa this year he was only 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA and his numbers were not impressive, except that he struck out 23 to just 3 walks in 16 1/3 innings in his 3 starts. Expect him to give them 5-6 innings today if he's got his command and let the pen take over.

Will take a stab at Philly OVER tonight. Staggering ERA's, good trends and Crawford behind home plate make it a solid investment...

The play: Col/Phi OVER 9.5 -110 at CRIS - 550 to win 500

Oakland and Texas have alternated wins this year and it sure seems like a good spot to play the A's but they are an awful favorite and the ball really flies out of the Ballpark in the daytime (10-4-1 last 15 day games OVER)... so Harden might not be as good as he has been. Tschida is an UMP that would be more toward the low-end and an under guy but I made the game a little higher, and anytime I can bet a Texas game OVER 9 with Loe pitching in the daytime at home... well.... let's just say you got me...

The play: OVER 9 -120 at CRIS - 360 to win 300

My favorite bet in two days. The Angels are 8-0 in the last 8 day starts for Lackey but Maroth has been out of this world in 2006, with a 0.49 ERA, so something's gotta give. Bell is 2-1 OVERS this year, but 6 of his last 7 went UNDER in 2005 and he's gotten some shitty pitchers so far in '06. This total was way too high and I pounded it when I got the chance.

The play: UNDER 8 -103 at Pinny - 618 to win 600

Wakefield has gotten little to no run support all season despite not pitching badly in any of his starts. Dowdy is the UMP in Cleveland tonight and his only game behind the plate was a pitcher's duel between Robertson and Meche (2-0) but he is traditionally an OVER guy slightly... tough game to call though it looks like the Red Sox are winning a lot of close games but might not be as good as the 05 or 04 versions from what I've watched.

No bet yet, still looking at some stuff... back with the rest in a little bit....

GL!
:drink:

About to start with the correlated parlays. For those who don't know, in my mind, they might be the best bet in baseball. You either parlay the visitor with OVER or the home team with UNDER.

If the visitor is winning after 8 1/2 innings, the home team must bat, ensuring at least 18 half-innings.

If the home team is ahead, there are only 17 at-bats for the game, meaning roughly 6 percent less outs are made, strengthening the chances of UNDER. Got it? Home team and UNDER provides value. Hence, so does Visitor and OVER.

OK, off my lecturn and onto the rest of this mess...

Cousins is behind the dish in the Bronx, and he's started out with four OVERS to just one UNDER thus far... no doubt the 'Rays will relish seeing someone other than Mussina or Johnson tonight, as I expect them to hit Wang. On the other hand, the Yanks seem to really light up the scoreboard when they win a game or two at home (6-2 in last 8 OVER after a win), but they have lost seven straight at night and are 1-8 in the last 9 in that role, making Tampa an enticing bet, and the correlated parlay with OVER a good option.

Here's what I'll try:

OVER 11 -110 at Pinny - 220 to win 200...

2 team parlay with Rays plus 234 and O 11 -115 at Pinny - 200 to win 1,048.87

Mykesy is on BAL/TOR OVER and because he's running better than anyone I know right now (including professionals, the poker players, etc.)... I will pass because I did like UNDER.

Danley is 0-2 o/u this year... his strike percentage is only 59.4 but for their careers he's done 2 Bedard and Lilly games each and each are 2-0 UNDER when he's back there... my listings still have Danley as a moderate OVER guy going into '06. But he didn't do a game after July 24 of last year so I don't know what to think.... I liked U but will pass....

Hernandez makes his first appearance this year for KC. Reliford gets mixed reviews behind the plate. One guy I respect has him as a slight 'O' guy, another has him as a significant 'U' guy over the years (his strike percentage thru 3 this year is a robust 66.4, though he has had very good pitchers in all his outings)... He only did one KC and one MIN game each last year, both were interleague games against NL West teams and both went flying over. Pass.

Keep an eye in Seattle tonight. Mike Muchlinski, first game ever behind the dish in the bigs, who knows what to expect considering it's been a month (spring training) since he did a game at all (the minor-league umps are on strike)...

Nothing else here. GL all!

was up rexy good to hear from u champ

like the yanks/d-rays over 11