New series: Good teams bounce back (YTD:0-0)

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Oh boy!
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Mar 21, 2004
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First, my regular bets-
Col +149 over Phil
Cook/Lieber

TB +240 over NYY
TB/NYY under 10.5 -101
Hendricksen/Chacon

Wash/StL under 9.5
O'Connor/Ponson

KC +185 over Minn
Redman/Santana
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In most of my previous bets I've been mostly looking ahead to the next day of betting without looking back at why my bets lost for the day. So I tried to do some reverse analysis by looking at how teams handled certain situations.

One situation is when a relatively good team gets beat by a lesser team the game before and faces them again. The art to this situation is deciding when a team is good and when a team is lesser. So what I've done is looked at all the teams at the top of the standings that are playing teams at the bottom of the standings. I'm trying to isolate the good teams that lose to a lesser team and come back to win the very next game.

Cleveland does not fit this situation. They started out well but then lost to KC a couple games so I throw them out. The Yankees also lost to Minnesota twice in a row so I'm just going to watch them for now.

The White Sox fit this scenario as do the Red Sox. The Red Sox lost a couple in a row to Toronto but the Jays are a relatively good team.

I'm also going to take into consideration average teams that are on a winning streak and average teams that are on a losing streak. I'm kind of adapting the large favorite system except it doesn't have to be a large favorite, just a better team. I'm also adapting Bigshotmaxxx's pitcher bounce-back theory and applying it to teams. This also allows a person to get a better price as I think the line is adjust against a good team who has just lost their most recent game. I'm also going to track the -1 1/2 RL to see how that does as well.

Here is one for today-

Bos -136 over Clev
-1.5 +121
Beckett/Byrd
OK, I think Beckett will do well here since he got bombed his last time out. While Cleveland is not necessarily a bad team at 11-10, they have lost 5 out of 7. They just beat Boston yesterday so Boston and Beckett will be out for blood, especially considering they'll be going against Byrd who only has one game under his belt. So we have a double bounce-back situation along with Jupiter aligning with Mars.
 

head turd in the outhouse
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So we have a double bounce-back situation along with Jupiter aligning with Mars.


I thought i was the only one using this aspect of handicapping a baseball game!LOL Hey Qleap where is the picture thread? hope all is well and you are enjoying yourself buddy.
 

Oh boy!
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Mar 21, 2004
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t-man:
I took some more pictures of the bird park. I hope to have the pictures up soon.

The top 5 went 3-2. Looks like my man Beckett is giving up dingers all the time. I still think this has some merit to it. I just need to adjust.

Bounce-back series: 0-1
(RL: 0-1)
 

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