Mariners @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -128
Comment:
Pros:
If you are going to bet on Cabrera one should make sure that the three following variables hold true: 1.) He is pitching at home and at night. 2.) He is either an underdog or a small favorite. 3.) His opponent’s lineup is a lineup that lacks discipline and is not accustomed to drawing walks. Fortunately for Orioles bettors, all three variables hold true tonight. Cabrera’s Achilles heal is his lack of mental strength which often times plays a huge role with the lack of control he often has in some of his games. Cabrera is a pitcher that is much more comfortable pitching in front of the home crowds, as his stats are far more impressive at Camden. He is also one of the biggest hit or miss pitchers, as his walk total is his ultimate demise in some games. Therefore betting him as an underdog or a small favorite is a must, as he could kill a bet after one inning of work. His lack of control deficiency is magnified when going against patient lineups that make him come into the strike zone. Fortunately for him, he faces one of the more free swinging lineups in baseball that is one of the worst at drawing walks. It is not surprising that Cabrera has pitched the Mariners better than any other team in years past. He comes into today’s game with an era well under 3 against them, and has had success against several of the more dangerous hitters on the team. Simply put, this is an ideal spot for Cabrera to put forth one of his better outings.
When fading Meche, one should wait for him to pitch during a night road game, as he simply has yet to prove capable of pitching on the road. He comes into today’s game with an alarming 5.52 career road era, a far cry from his career 3.90 home era. Meche has also struggled throughout his career during night games, and has been owned by a couple of Orioles hitters that spread across their lineup tonight. He is also backed by an underachieving bullpen that has no confidence in their closer right now. Over the years, the Mariners have always been a much better home team, and have always made for an intriguing fade during road games where one doesn’t have to lay too many basis points against them. Their lineup is in the midst of a slump, and has struggled putting up runs that they were during the first ten games of the season. This is not something you want out of a lineup backing a pitcher with a propensity to allow a lot of runs in this spot.
Cons:
Betting on Cabrera is always a risk, as he, more than any other pitcher in baseball, can kill off a bet in a blink of an eye. After coming off an impressive start where he showcased ample control against the Angels, Cabrera digressed to the pitcher that lacked control, as he allowed 6 walks to the Yankees in his last outing. The Orioles bullpen is a sub par bullpen that also used their two best pitchers yesterday. Their closer also got roughed up last night, and ended up throwing more pitches than you would want coming into this game. The Mariners have a lot of dangerous hitters in their lineup, and it’s just a matter of time until they get out of their recent funk. Camden has provided Meche one of the few visiting ballparks in which he put forth impressive pitching performances. He has historically faired well against the Orioles as well. The Mariners got a much needed day off yesterday, while the Orioles were playing a game against a division rival.
Conclusion:
There are going to be a few starts throughout the year that Cabrera has a shot to be dominant in. In my opinion, this should be one of them. At this price, I will take my chances.
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Play: Orioles -128
Comment:
Pros:
If you are going to bet on Cabrera one should make sure that the three following variables hold true: 1.) He is pitching at home and at night. 2.) He is either an underdog or a small favorite. 3.) His opponent’s lineup is a lineup that lacks discipline and is not accustomed to drawing walks. Fortunately for Orioles bettors, all three variables hold true tonight. Cabrera’s Achilles heal is his lack of mental strength which often times plays a huge role with the lack of control he often has in some of his games. Cabrera is a pitcher that is much more comfortable pitching in front of the home crowds, as his stats are far more impressive at Camden. He is also one of the biggest hit or miss pitchers, as his walk total is his ultimate demise in some games. Therefore betting him as an underdog or a small favorite is a must, as he could kill a bet after one inning of work. His lack of control deficiency is magnified when going against patient lineups that make him come into the strike zone. Fortunately for him, he faces one of the more free swinging lineups in baseball that is one of the worst at drawing walks. It is not surprising that Cabrera has pitched the Mariners better than any other team in years past. He comes into today’s game with an era well under 3 against them, and has had success against several of the more dangerous hitters on the team. Simply put, this is an ideal spot for Cabrera to put forth one of his better outings.
When fading Meche, one should wait for him to pitch during a night road game, as he simply has yet to prove capable of pitching on the road. He comes into today’s game with an alarming 5.52 career road era, a far cry from his career 3.90 home era. Meche has also struggled throughout his career during night games, and has been owned by a couple of Orioles hitters that spread across their lineup tonight. He is also backed by an underachieving bullpen that has no confidence in their closer right now. Over the years, the Mariners have always been a much better home team, and have always made for an intriguing fade during road games where one doesn’t have to lay too many basis points against them. Their lineup is in the midst of a slump, and has struggled putting up runs that they were during the first ten games of the season. This is not something you want out of a lineup backing a pitcher with a propensity to allow a lot of runs in this spot.
Cons:
Betting on Cabrera is always a risk, as he, more than any other pitcher in baseball, can kill off a bet in a blink of an eye. After coming off an impressive start where he showcased ample control against the Angels, Cabrera digressed to the pitcher that lacked control, as he allowed 6 walks to the Yankees in his last outing. The Orioles bullpen is a sub par bullpen that also used their two best pitchers yesterday. Their closer also got roughed up last night, and ended up throwing more pitches than you would want coming into this game. The Mariners have a lot of dangerous hitters in their lineup, and it’s just a matter of time until they get out of their recent funk. Camden has provided Meche one of the few visiting ballparks in which he put forth impressive pitching performances. He has historically faired well against the Orioles as well. The Mariners got a much needed day off yesterday, while the Orioles were playing a game against a division rival.
Conclusion:
There are going to be a few starts throughout the year that Cabrera has a shot to be dominant in. In my opinion, this should be one of them. At this price, I will take my chances.
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