MLB: Friday Plays

Mariners @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -128
Comment:
Pros:
If you are going to bet on Cabrera one should make sure that the three following variables hold true: 1.) He is pitching at home and at night. 2.) He is either an underdog or a small favorite. 3.) His opponent’s lineup is a lineup that lacks discipline and is not accustomed to drawing walks. Fortunately for Orioles bettors, all three variables hold true tonight. Cabrera’s Achilles heal is his lack of mental strength which often times plays a huge role with the lack of control he often has in some of his games. Cabrera is a pitcher that is much more comfortable pitching in front of the home crowds, as his stats are far more impressive at Camden. He is also one of the biggest hit or miss pitchers, as his walk total is his ultimate demise in some games. Therefore betting him as an underdog or a small favorite is a must, as he could kill a bet after one inning of work. His lack of control deficiency is magnified when going against patient lineups that make him come into the strike zone. Fortunately for him, he faces one of the more free swinging lineups in baseball that is one of the worst at drawing walks. It is not surprising that Cabrera has pitched the Mariners better than any other team in years past. He comes into today’s game with an era well under 3 against them, and has had success against several of the more dangerous hitters on the team. Simply put, this is an ideal spot for Cabrera to put forth one of his better outings.

When fading Meche, one should wait for him to pitch during a night road game, as he simply has yet to prove capable of pitching on the road. He comes into today’s game with an alarming 5.52 career road era, a far cry from his career 3.90 home era. Meche has also struggled throughout his career during night games, and has been owned by a couple of Orioles hitters that spread across their lineup tonight. He is also backed by an underachieving bullpen that has no confidence in their closer right now. Over the years, the Mariners have always been a much better home team, and have always made for an intriguing fade during road games where one doesn’t have to lay too many basis points against them. Their lineup is in the midst of a slump, and has struggled putting up runs that they were during the first ten games of the season. This is not something you want out of a lineup backing a pitcher with a propensity to allow a lot of runs in this spot.

Cons:
Betting on Cabrera is always a risk, as he, more than any other pitcher in baseball, can kill off a bet in a blink of an eye. After coming off an impressive start where he showcased ample control against the Angels, Cabrera digressed to the pitcher that lacked control, as he allowed 6 walks to the Yankees in his last outing. The Orioles bullpen is a sub par bullpen that also used their two best pitchers yesterday. Their closer also got roughed up last night, and ended up throwing more pitches than you would want coming into this game. The Mariners have a lot of dangerous hitters in their lineup, and it’s just a matter of time until they get out of their recent funk. Camden has provided Meche one of the few visiting ballparks in which he put forth impressive pitching performances. He has historically faired well against the Orioles as well. The Mariners got a much needed day off yesterday, while the Orioles were playing a game against a division rival.

Conclusion:
There are going to be a few starts throughout the year that Cabrera has a shot to be dominant in. In my opinion, this should be one of them. At this price, I will take my chances.
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Red Sox @ Devil Rays
Play: Red Sox -151
Comment:
Pros:
In my opinion, there are a lot of intangibles working the in the Red Sox favor in this game. First off, they are coming off one of the most embarrassing losses in years last night. Many are accusing the Red Sox of putting not forth their best effort night in and night out. After last night, suspicions may have risen to an all time level. This is a good spot for them to prove otherwise, as they face one of the worst teams in baseball that coincidently have given the Red Sox a run for their money the last couple of years. This is also a revenge spot for Clements, as he returns to the stadium in which he nearly got his head taken off last time he pitched there. It’s safe to say, this game will mean more to the Red Sox when compared to their normal visit to Tampa. The same can not be said for Tampa Bay, as they have the tendency to get off the motivational high in the series following their trip to Yankee Stadium.

Clements has always pitched the Devil Rays well, as he comes into today’s game with a career era of under 3 against them, as well as a 3-0 record. It’s hard to think his success against the Devil Ray will come to an end today, as he faces an injury plagued lineup that is missing 3 of their four best hitters. The injury bug has taken its toll on the Devil Rays, as they have struggled to produce runs without Lugo, Huff and Cantu in the lineup. Clements is also a workhorse that could take his pitch count as high as anyone. This is a huge asset when pitching on the Red Sox, as their only solid bullpen pitcher is their closer. This is a good spot for the Red Sox to avoid any other pen pitcher from stepping foot on the mound today.

Fossum is one of the few sub par pitchers that has gotten the upper hand on the Red Sox lineup over the last few years, including a solid start against them a couple of weeks ago. However, the Red Sox lineup is one of the best at getting the upper hand on a pitcher who is making their second start within a couple week time frame against them. Fossum lacks the overpowering pitches to make up for this advantage the Red Sox may have on him. He is also backed by arguably the worst bullpen in baseball, allowing the Red Sox ample scoring opportunities throughout the game. Ortiz and Manny have also hit the ball well the last week or so, and finally seem to have shaken the early season rust off. Lastly, Tropicana is a hitter’s park. Due the recent injuries to the Devil Rays best hitters, the disparity amongst lineups will be magnified by the small dimensions Tropicana provides.

Cons:
As mentioned before, the Red Sox make for a better fade than bet on the road. They are clearly one of the more overrated teams in baseball this year, and have not hit left handed pitching well this year. Fossum has pitched the Red Sox role players well in years past, so a lot of pressure will be on Many and Ortiz to produce here. The Devil Rays always play much better at home, and have consistently provided handicappers a positive ROI in Tropicana.

Conclusion:
This is a good spot for the Red Sox to avenge last nights embarrassing defeat. This is also a good sport for Clements to avenge his early season struggles as well as get back at a team that nearly took his head off. The Devil Rays are injured and coming off a huge series against the Yankees. For a young team, they are greatly vulnerable to an emotional letdown today. Even at this price, I like the Red Sox.

Astros @ Reds
Play: Reds +141
Comment:
Pros:
All the public is hearing about this match up is that Oswalt enters today’s game with a 15 and 0 career record against the Reds. No talk is being made about how well the Reds have been playing lately. No talk has been made about the Astros still being one of the weaker road teams in baseball. No talk has been made about how poorly the Astros bullpen has been pitching, and how surprisingly well the Reds bullpen has been pitching. Lastly, no talk has been made about how well Claussen has pitched against the Astros in past starts. For these reason, no other team carries more value on today’s card than the Reds.

I am well aware of how dominant Oswalt has pitched against the Reds and several of their more dangerous hitters. However, I am also aware of the fact that Oswalt is one of the few top tier pitchers that carry a high disparity of quality starts when pitching at home when compared to his road starts. I am also well aware of the fact that in his previous starts against the Reds, he was backed by a top tier bullpen, something that cannot be said at this moment in time. Lastly, I am well aware of the fact that the Reds lineup is playing with more confidence right now compared to any other game Oswalt has faced them. There are also a couple of hitters in today’s lineup that has actually had success against Oswalt.

Claussen is a pitcher that could make a handicapper look really good or really bad, as the standard deviation of his starts is as high as any pitcher in the league. However, he has always pitched the Astros well, and prefers to pitch at home. He also has the tendency to showcase his best pitching during the first half of the season. He has also had success against a few Astros hitters, as Biggio, Berkman, and Lane are a combined 2 for 18 against them. Last year, the Astros were one of the worst hitting teams when facing left handers, so I am not putting too much stock into their early season success against the southpaws they have faced. The Reds bullpen has also been pitching well, which is a huge asset, as Claussen rarely goes deep into games.

Cons:
There is no denying how well Oswalt has pitched against the Reds, and how risky of a bet Claussen makes. There is also no denying the lack of sustainability that the recent poor pitching performance of the Astros bullpen has had, as well as the overachieving Reds bullpen. The Reds are also playing above their heads right now, and their recent winning streak lacks the ideal sustainability as well.

Conclusion:
Do I think that the Reds will win this game? Probably not. However, I do feel that they have a better chance than line makers are leading you to believe. Way too much artificial value has been derived due the Oswalt vs. Reds talk. I am on the Reds here.
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Mets @ Braves
Play: Braves -104
Comment:
Pros:
Huge statement game for the Braves and Smoltz. The Braves are coming off a series in which they were embarrassingly swept by the Brewers. Smoltz is coming off a sub par outing against one of the worst lineups in baseball, and has only managed one win in his first four starts. They now return home from their long road trip to face their division rival that has clearly shown they have the upper hand for the division race right now. This is a perfect opportunity for the Braves to show otherwise as they face the Mets ace and get the much welcomed return of Chipper back on the lineup.

Martinez got to face a Chippless Braves lineup a couple of weeks ago, and still didn’t pitcher terribly impressive against them, as he allowed 3 runs, which should have been more as he was helped by good defense and a pitchers park that kept two well hit balls inside the park. Although he has owned Andrew Jones in years past, Jones hit a home run against him in his first game, and was a couple of feet short of hitting two against him. Giles has also consistently hit Martinez well, while the younger hitters are getting more and more experience against him. Martinez has faced some anemic lineups so far year to date, and is not the dominant pitcher he once was, yet continues to carry the price tag. This is also the Mets third consecutive road trip in a row, and having to play an east coast road trip following two west coast series might take its toll on them.

This is a big pressure packed game for Smoltz, a game in which he usually shines in. Smoltz dominated the Mets last year more than any other team. He has also owned a couple of the more dangerous Mets hitters, including Beltran, who should return to the lineup today. Smoltz also has the ability to eat up innings and avoid the Braves anemic bullpen that got a much needed day off yesterday. Aside from their last game, the Mets lineup was failing to score the runs that they were scoring the first week of the season. Their fielding that was one of their assets earlier in the season has also become a liability.

Cons:
The Mets have been the best road team this season. They are going city to city, and taking series against their opponents. They also have the better lineup, the pitcher that is pitching better right now, as well as the better bullpen. Until the Braves show they are a better team that the one they have been putting on the field recently, assuming they are can be a costly mistake.

Conclusion:
Even though it’s early in the year, this is a huge game for the Braves. In my opinion, there is a huge motivational disparity entering this game, while this hostile stadium should cool off the Mets impressive road play. Expect the Braves lineup and Smoltz to bounce back just enough to take game one. Getting Smoltz at even money at home is a bargain in my opinion, even against the Mets and Martinez.
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sick write ups bro, except I'm a mets homer, but good luck

Love the write-ups as on the days I have off or time I study hard also and is refreshing to open a post and have a reason behind the selection.

That being said,yes I was impressed but then dissapointed to find out you are another of the gazzillion services out there.

Not that theres anything wrong with that.

Thanks guys for the compliments.

Badco,
What makes you think I am a service? I have never sold a pick in my life, nor do I intend to in the future.

Gl today.

MY BAD THEN


http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/home.shtml

I see. For what it’s worth, I have no affiliation with the purchase picks portion of the site. I am merely a poster in the forum section.
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Best of luck.

Cool I just registered and will post some write-ups in the future.

I know those write-ups take alot but does help on your handicapping puting it into text.

Everyone is slobering on this Oswalt thing which has worked the last couple of years but this Reds team has gone over the total at home 8 of 9 and are hitting .316 in thier park.

Cubs just went over as alot here are liking that.

Good luck to you!

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Bad Co.,
I look forward to your write ups and insight.
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I think the public squares love the stats like the one Oswalt comes into today’s game with. He might be dominant again, but I have no problem taking my chances on a hot Reds team at home getting these odds. If they lose, so be it, but its just too much value to pass up in my opinion.
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GL.

From the other forum:

Buffettgambler (3 Viewing)
This Guest Poster is a consultant for TTS777, here to share his handicapping expertise. Buffettgambler is known for his outstanding NFL and MLB write-ups. He breaks down games like few others in these two sports. He is "Professional Grade".

(Btw, appreciate the posts here buffet. Keep up the great work!)