Who's Smart enough to know ???

TheShambler · Apr 28, 2006

Here is something i have been wondering.

when looking at all wagers placed , usually you will notice that when there is a heavy favorite with the betting public the Money % is in line with the sides %. However there are always a few games on the card where this does not apply.

for example tonight involving the white sox & Angels.

91% of bets placed went on the Angels yet 85% of all money wagered is on the White Sox.. Someone is obviously hammering a large wager to offset all those smaller bets. Is this an indication of anything? I will do my best to moniter this odd trend to see if there is anything to it.

there are 3 games that fall into this category today.

Texas ,Oakland , & White Sox are the 3 teams where the bigger money is on them yet majority of sides is on the opponent.

i will only catogorize games where %'s are more than 60% on sides yet more than 60% money the other way. i use sportsbook for my info..

any thoughts or opinions????

jeckll · Apr 28, 2006

Don't know if I can provide a legit answer but I'm curious where you find stats that show both % of bets and % of money on either side?

Tulsa · Apr 28, 2006

I think that it is a great idea to track the information/stats you are speaking of.....

I am smart enough to have a guess what the trend (if there is any trend) may be, but I also know that it takes data gathering and consistent record-keeping for quite a while to feel good about any 'patterns.'

Great idea and good luck. If you find anything, please give us a couple of hints about it after you make your first mil!! Again, good luck. tulsa

PatrickMcIrish · Apr 28, 2006

When you have a situation where most the public is on one team but the money is on the other side then that's the wiseguy (big money) side you should be taking. For instance if 91% of the public has bet the Angels but 85% of the money is on the White Sox then you want to be on the White Sox. Fade the public, not the money. These big betting syndicates are not who you want to be fading in the long run.....

TheShambler · Apr 28, 2006

Tulsa said:
I am smart enough to have a guess what the trend (if there is any trend) may be, but I also know that it takes data gathering and consistent record-keeping for quite a while to feel good about any 'patterns.'

Great idea and good luck. If you find anything, please give us a couple of hints about it after you make your first mil!! Again, good luck. tulsa

well what is your guess ? If their is something to it someone else with a bigger bankroll will hit the mil mark before i do.lol

on a serious note any info ,whether helpful or useless, will be shared with everyone to read.

TheShambler · Apr 28, 2006

Patrick, while i agree with the logic of it, i'm looking for any #'s to support any arguements/opinions.

I had picked up on this during football and just layed off the games that fell under this "fishy" trend.

I can't see too many people aside from professional gamblers or Micheal Jordan or Janet Gretzky ,making this large a wager.

Tulsa · Apr 28, 2006

The Shambler said:
well what is your guess ? If their is something to it someone else with a bigger bankroll will hit the mil mark before i do.lol

on a serious note any info ,whether helpful or useless, will be shared with everyone to read.

I think it is more complicated than Pat McIrish has presented. One thing is that there are loads of money that move from 'syndicates' or 'teams' or whatever you want to call them and they can move loads of money by using 'beards' across the world. We are talking far different and larger than almost any single person could afford to wager on a game.

Also, the more complicated part is the line movement game that should be part of your fact gathering as well. Sometimes syndicates will steam a line down say two points by heavy action. Then they will buy back the other side of the play at the better line! They are scalping/middling, but anyone that purely follows the money may miss the buyback and not be scalping but just have a side.

You must look at 1.) percentage of 'people/wagers' on a side like votes 2.) The amount of $ on a side and 3.) How the line moved from its opening to just before the game....

I believe (just guessing) that those three data points per game will give you a trend that is workable.

By the way, my guess has no bearing or relevance. You gather the requisite info and you will know what is going on and guesses won't be necessary! Good luck. tulsa

PatrickMcIrish · Apr 28, 2006

Nothing "fishy" about it really. I helped run a book long time ago and it was not unusual, we might write 100 tickets on the Raiders for example, on the other hand we would only have 5 tickets on their opponent but the money would be equal. Why? Because the 5 tickets were much much sharper (and with much bigger bankroll) than the other 100 who had previously bet. What our wise faders would call and ask us was not who we needed, but he would ask who are you writing the most tickets on today? In short, who were the squares/public playing, that is who he wanted to fade.

Anyway I realize I got off the mark here, this was just a generic example. I just want to point out that the number of tickets written does not always have a direct correlation to the how much money is on a side. When the public is heavy on one side and the money the other, my advice is to always fade the public.

bznofx19 · Apr 28, 2006

the stats you are using for the "sides" percentages are for the run-line. this means that the majority of the money is coming in on the White Sox (-107) and the Angels -1.5 (+209)

ppl rather take the Angels -1.5 for the huge payout...rather than laying the
(-101) to just win the game.

if the Angels win by 1-run that book wins a TON of money from that game. IMO.

TheShambler · Apr 28, 2006

Tulsa said:
Also, the more complicated part is the line movement game that should be part of your fact gathering as well. Sometimes syndicates will steam a line down say two points by heavy action. Then they will buy back the other side of the play at the better line! They are scalping/middling, but anyone that purely follows the money may miss the buyback and not be scalping but just have a side.

thanks for the positive and informative responses .

You do make a good point Tulsa. If we use your example, then in the end once the line has moved a few points and there is a buy on the other side then the money % would end pretty equal would it not?

I have noticed 2 different things that happen in this case.

Example # 1 Team A is fav -120 80% sides on team "A" yet 72% money on team "b" line moves from -120 to -135 or -145.

Example # 2 Same as above except line moves the other way going from
-120 to -110 or -105

what would attribute the line going one way over the other?

Insiders · Apr 28, 2006

Sure the Wiseguy money is ALways bigger than the public. But it really depends on Which Wiseguy group it is, in baseball for sure!
Everyone can see when BW hits a CFB game or a CBB game, as the Don Best screen goes Black and ALL the Major shops are ALL moveing at the same time.

TheShambler · Apr 28, 2006

It seems that the sides in the Oakland game fit in line with the money % .funny how 1 hour can change so much. so i guess Oakland won't qaulify for tonight. i will omit it from my stat tracking.

Insiders what or who is BW ?

Littledaddy · Apr 28, 2006

Where Are you getting the money percent on each side is what we all want to know?

fhmesq44 · Apr 28, 2006

I tend to agree with Patrick, but those % seem really high on each side to provide for that type of difference. You may also have bookies laying off some money on CWS. If they have everyone playing LAA, they may make one large wager on CWS which accounts for a large % of $ but only 1 bet. Not sure I would qualify that as "sharp" money, although it may be similar.

I would be interested in seeing the results of which side wins more often, I would guess the money side does.

TheShambler · Apr 28, 2006

Littledaddy said:
Where Are you getting the money percent on each side is what we all want to know?

there are many . i don't like advertising other sites but since i use it i will share the one that i use.

sportsbook.com

fhmesq44 - so are you saying what Patrick said .

Basically even though there shows less sides where the money is,sometimes the books just collect the bets and place 1 big bet instead of smaller individual ones?? ..hhhhmmmmm if that is so there goes my idea . but i still will follow it and see what happens..

I'm curious to hear more ideas ,any different angles, or thoughts ..

Insiders · Apr 28, 2006

The Shambler said:
It seems that the sides in the Oakland game fit in line with the money % .funny how 1 hour can change so much. so i guess Oakland won't qaulify for tonight. i will omit it from my stat tracking.

Insiders what or who is BW ?

Billy Walters....The most succesful sports gambler in the USA. Him and his Beards move more money on CFB and CBB than anyone. Sometimes More than ALL the Public. They play HIGH !

TheShambler · Apr 28, 2006

Oh that Billy walters , the golf course developer and high stakes gambler...
just kidding .i yahooed the name to see what i'd get ..more than i thought.. nice life buddy has.

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