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Sports ANALyst
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Oct 13, 2004
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Went 4-5-1 and lose 97 in the bases yesterday, no complaints on the White Sox/Halos, lost that big one fair and square, wish the O's woulda hung on... all in all, not a bad day but was so close to a decent one.

Now 12-16-1 and down 799 for the week and year. It all comes back today.

Top game, Mets in Atlanta. Ridiculous stat here, Mets have won 10 of their last 11 as a dog and it appears they have the upper hand in the pitching matchup as well. But I think OVER is the better bet, despite the ATL woes at the plate lately. OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 ATL day games. BUT... Marquez is going behind the dish, and he is 26-37 O/U since 2004.

Immovable force meets irresistible object in Miami today, as Hirshbeck, the 'King' has to call two No. 5 starters, Kim and Mitre. This is Kim's first start of the year. Still, lean to COL in yet another close, low-scoring game as they go for the sweep. Hirschbeck 25-38 in 04-05, and now 1-5 O/U this year and giving up just 6.33 RPG. Notice in his only OVER, Davies for ATL was going...

The play: Colorado/Florida UNDER 8.5 -110 - 330 to win 300

Let me get this straight. Day game in Cincinnati with 2 pitchers that I've never seen live before, and they're going to make the total 9? All trends favor OVER and Miller is 3-2 this year behind the plate, BUT... his strike percentage is 64.9, and Buchholz's ERA is microscopic. I really like OVER but I'mma pass for better ones.

At some point, Oliver Perez is going to turn things around. Neither team can hit for shit. I made the game 9-flat, so going under 9.5 seems like a decent investment and I'll give it a shot. Perez is 1-0 with a 2.61 career ERA in three career starts versus the Phillies, and they've won 2 straight since a player's-only meeting before Friday's opener. Rapuano a pronounced UNDER ump, especially in the NL, last 3 years.

The plays: Pitt -102 - 204 to win 200
UNDER 9.5 -108 - 324 to win 300
2team parlay - Pitt -106/UNDER 9.5 -115 - 200.00 to win 526.67

Taking a stab on my boy Zach Day and the Nattys today against Suppan, the weak link in the Cardinal armor. Day is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA in two career games against the Cardinals, and though he's not been healthy lately, my sources back home tell me he's happy to be back with the Expo organization and ready to roll today.

The play: Washington plus 180 - 200 to win 360

Really liking the Giants today. They are 10-3 when Bonds and Alou are both in the starting lineup (they both go today), and Matt Cain looked great Monday when he allowed two runs and five hits with no walks over seven innings in a 6-2 win over the Mets. Cain earned his first major league win against Arizona last Sept. 4, limiting the Snakes to a run and three hits with a walk and four strikeouts in a 3-2 win at the BOB. Webb has won three straight in '06 but he lost his final three starts against the Giants last season.

The play: SFO EVEN - 300 to win 300

Going UNDER in Detroit today. Get-away day and the Twins are just trying to get the hell out of town after the shellackings of the last 2 days. The Gambler is 11-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 25 career starts against Minnesota, and went 1-0 with a 2.18 ERA in three starts against the Twins last season. He's 5-1 with a 3.08 ERA in nine career games at Comerica Park.

Meanwhile, MIN counters with Lohse, who held Kansas City to just one run in six innings in his last start on Tuesday. The righty is 7-3 with a 4.66 ERA in 15 career starts against Detroit, and is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA in eight career starts at Comerica Park.

Danley 6-12 in AL games the last 2 years, a pronounced UNDER (avg RPG 7.66 this year). I'll bite.

The play: MIN/DET UNDER 9 -110 - 330 to win 300

Oakland's winning streak in KC was preserved by a rainout last night, with KC up large in after 3 innings. Affeldt was rolling along with 5 K's and did not hide his disappointment. I think that carries over into today, where Blanton tries to turn things around for the A's. He was 1-0 with no runs allowed in two starts last season against the Royals, holding them to just eight hits and two walks with 11 Ks in 13 IP. Big win today for Oakland against 'The Hitman', who is 0-4.

The play: OAK RL -1.5 plus 121 - 250 to win 302.50

Chicago hasn't swept the Angels on the road since April 7-9, 1993. Garland threw a CG against Anaheim in Game 3 of the ALCS last fall. Santana (2-0, 2.96 ERA) threw his only career complete game in his only start against the White Sox, a five-hitter with seven strikeouts in a 4-0 win last May 23 at U.S. Cellular Field. UNDER is 14-5 in CHW last 19 day games; UNDER is 6-2-1 in Santana's L9 home starts. Reliford 5-11 AL games UNDER in 2004-05, L3 all UNDER this year (1-3 for year, and avg RPG just 5.0 with 66.3 strike percentage).

Missed on this one last night when I had OVER but today is a pronounced UNDER with these two. Also missed on the number last night, as once again they have POUNDED this one and I hate to be aboard a runaway train in baseball but...

The play: UNDER 9 -108 - 324 to win 300

And in the nightcap, they wheel Crawford and his 4-1 O/U and (more important) his 59.5 strike percentage. He's yielded 13 RPG this year. Westbrook is 2-1 lifetime against the Rangers with a 5.19 ERA in six starts. He threw 98 pitches in 5 innings against Boston the other night. If that happens again, we get the Tribe pen involved and only good things happen then. Padilla has only faced CLE once, when he was with Philly 3-4 years ago.

OVER is 6-2-1 in TEX L9 games following a win; OVER is 12-2 in CLE L14 night games; OVER is 6-2-0 in CLE last 8 games as a favorite.


Up, up and away....

The play: TEX/CLE OVER 10 -109 - 436 to win 400

GL!

:thumbsup2:
 

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