MLB: Sunday Plays

A’s @ Royals
Play: A’s -132
Comment:
Pros:
A couple of weeks ago I got burned by betting on Blanton. He followed up that horrible pitching performance by pitching a solid outing against one of the most potent lineups in baseball last week. One thing I am learning more and more about this young pitcher is that he pitches on confidence. Therefore, in my opinion, this is a good spot to invest in him. Not only is Blanton coming off his impressive start against the Rangers last week, he now gets to face a team that he downright dominated last year. In fact, Blanton comes into today’s game still yet to allow a run against this Royals team in 13 innings of work. Last year, the Royals only managed 8 hits and one walk against Blanton in two starts, while their best hitter Sweeney has yet to get a hit off of him. This should allow Blanton more confidence today when he steps on the mound. Yesterdays rain delay allowed the A’s bullpen to get a much needed day off, and should provide Blanton the adequate support to hold onto any potential lead. Expect the Royals to have a much more difficult time scoring when compared to yesterdays hit fest.

Elarton has started the season strong, but just isn’t a good enough pitcher to keep sustaining these solid outings. Call it randomness, but in past years, he has also been known to get roughed up in outings following shutout pitching performances. He will also face a couple of hitters in today’s lineup that has hit him well in the past, and is not backed by the quality bullpen that Blanton is being backed by.

I am well aware of the fact that emotional variables do not have as strong of an impact in baseball as they do other sports. However, last night’s postponed game must take a toll on a young team. Wins have been hard to come by for the Royals, and the rain took away a sure win. How will that play in the mindset of a young team that is clearly lacking confidence? It also should be a wakeup call for the A’s.

Cons:
Blanton has proven that he is a hit or miss pitcher that could blow up a bet in just a couple of poor innings. He is not an ideal pitcher you want when laying basis points, especially on the road. The A’s lineup seems to be in a funk, and isn’t playing to their potential. One thing you want when fading the Royals is to get into their bullpen. Elarton is the biggest workhorse on the team, and has the ability to avoid the bullpen. He has also had some decent success against the A’s last year. The Royals lineup was hitting the ball as if it were a beach ball yesterday. Whether it was a product of a beginning of a hot streak or the product of Loiaza pitching poorly has yet to be seen. The Royals have actually played well at home, and have won all of their games this year in front of the home crowd.

Conclusion:
I don’t mind laying these odds against the worst team in baseball. Blanton has the ability to be dominant, and has yet to allow a run against the Royals. I am expecting yesterday to be a wakeup call for the A’s and a major letdown for the Royals. I like the A’s in this spot.
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Brewers @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -127
Comment:
Pros:

One of the most intriguing and profitable angles over the last few years is betting on a home team that was embarrassed the day before. Yesterday, the Cubs were embarrassed. Today, they send their ace on the mound. While the Cubs lineup is looking to avenge yesterdays laugher, Zambrano is looking to avenge last years start where the Brewers handed him his worst pitching performance in his career. Aside from that game, Zambrano has pitched the Brewers rather well. He has also been a top five day game pitcher over the last few years. The Brewers have several hitters in today’s lineup that has been overmatched by Zambrano. The Cubs are also putting together a very formidable 7th, 8th, 9th pitcher in Howry, Eyre, and Dempster. If Zambrano could go at least six strong, runs will not come nearly as easy in today’s game for the Brewers as they did yesterday.

Capuano is one of the most underrated young southpaws in baseball. With that said, he has yet to prove capable of pitching to the Cubs, on the road, and especially in day games. Unfortunately for him, he has all three obstacles to overcome in today’s game. Capuano comes in today’s game with a 6.44 career ERA against the Cubs, while most of his poor outings have taken place in Wrigley field. He, like several other southpaws, has struggled in day games throughout his career, as his pitching performances in daylight are far from the ones under the night light. Although the Cubs have not hit left handers well this year, I always like betting on lineups facing their second consecutive left hander, as they faced Davis yesterday. Capuano is also backed by a bullpen that has really struggled holding onto leads prior to the ninth inning this year. Although the Cubs lineup is nowhere as dangerous without Lee in the lineup, there are a couple of hitters in today’s lineup that has had success against Capuano in the past.

Cons:
The Cubs are clearly missing Lee in the lineup. Without him, they are a sub par lineup. They have also yet to prove capable of hitting left handers, as yesterday was once again a poor outing against one. Zambrano still hasn’t gotten in his groove yet. Betting on a favorite when the underdog has the better lineup certainly has its risks. The Brewers lineup is young and is very streaky. Yesterday, they were on fire. Today, it might carry over.

Conclusion:
Good revenge spot for the Cubs. The Cubs were embarrassed yesterday. Zambrano was embarrassed last year against the Brewers. Having a top tier pitcher at home only laying 27 basis points is a bargain in my opinion. I will take a motivated Cubs team today.
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