MLB: Monday Plays

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MLB: Monday Plays <HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Rangers @ Devil Rays
Play: Rangers -134
Comment:
Pros:

A lot of intangibles taking part in this game, as both teams are set up for a letdown in this spot. First the potential letdown working in the Rangers favor. The Devil Rays have always raised their level of play when playing both the Yankees and Red Sox. Last week, they took their injured ball club into New York, and almost took the series from them. They followed that up with a near sweep against the Red Sox. With that said, the Devil Rays have also consistently laid an egg following a series against either the Red Sox or Yankees. After playing consecutive series against these teams, it’s hard for me to think this trend is going to change.

The Devil Rays have a depleted lineup that is getting a boost from a different hitter every game. However, in the long run, the Devil Rays lineup lacks the quality hitters that could consistently hang with the better lineups in the league such as the Rangers. Although Loe was beaten up pretty bad in his last start against the Devil Rays a couple of weeks ago, the Rangers later found out that he had a bad chest cold that effected his pitching that day. After being sent home following that game, Loe returned to form with a pretty solid outing against the A’s in his last start. Although some young pitchers have the tendency to struggle on road games, Loe is quite the opposite. In fact, his career road ERA is half as low as his home ERA, as he comes into today’s start with an impressive 2.52 career road ERA. Expect this to be a good spot for Loe to avenge his poor outing a couple of weeks ago against the Devil Rays, as he now faces a more injured lineup that is prone to a letdown.

McClung shares many similarities as Cabrera. He has nasty stuff and has the ability to be dominant. However, those dominant starts are few and far between. He is a much better pitcher to bet on when being a huge underdog, as 24 basis points is just not worth the risk when taking the most inconsistent pitcher in baseball. McClung really struggled a couple of weeks ago when facing the same Rangers lineup. In fact, he was only able to pitch two and a third innings before getting taken out for allowing 9 runs and 8 hits. He is also coming off a start where he allowed 7 walks, and is allowing a walk an innings so far this year. This is the last thing you want when facing a home run hitting lineup in a hitter’s park, as they could really make a pitcher pay for their walks. He is also backed by a very fatigued bullpen that has really been struggling lately. They have not found a reliable closer, and are very prone to blowing any potential lead, as last series showed. The Rangers lineup is one of the streakiest in baseball, and they appear to be heating up right now. They have scored at least six runs in 8 of their last 10 games, and have been getting support from various players.

Cons:
The Devil Rays might be the most underrated home team in baseball, and has consistently been the most undervalued home team in baseball as well. They make for a much better fade when playing away from home. The Rangers are also prone to a letdown in this game as well. Most teams coming off a Sunday Nigh upset have been prone to a huge letdown the following game. There are several reasons why I don’t think this trend is a mere anomaly. Loe and the Rangers bullpen is not the ideal combination you want when betting on a road favorite. As mentioned before, McClung is a hit or miss pitcher. This means that the quality starts are not correlated to the quality of the lineup he faces, rather whether he has his control that particular game. This somewhat minimizes the advantages of betting on a quality lineup.

Conclusion:
Both teams are prone to a letdown game today. In my opinion, it would be the younger, injured and inferior team. I like the Rangers in this spot.
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Rockies @ Braves
Play: Braves -170
Comment:
Pros:
Normally I am reluctant to recommend a favorite this large, as one needs such a high winning percentage just to break even when consistently betting favorites like this. However, in my opinion, there is a lot of hidden value on the Braves in this spot.

Although the Rockies are a much improved team when compared to last year, this recent road tear is not sustainable in my opinion, as the Rockies have been helped by a soft schedule so far this season. This is also the third road series in a row for the Rockies, which more times than not, does not bode well for young lineups not accustomed to the long road trip. The Rockies have been getting the majority of their recent wins with solid pitching, as their bats are somewhat cooling off, even with facing a lot of sub par pitching in the last week. Therefore, they are vulnerable in this game, as Jennings is not the pitcher you want on the mound when a team has potentially a low margin of error. Jennings is once again off to a slow start, as is coming off two starts where he allowed 7 runs. He comes into today’s game with a huge whip and ERA. He has also historically struggled against the Braves and several of their hitters, no more than new addition Renteria. The Braves bats finally showed some signs of life in yesterday’s game, and Jennings is the perfect pitcher to allow a potential hot streak to get established.

This is also a good spot for Hudson to finally return to form, as he faces a young lineup that appears to be in the process of regressing to their mean. Hudson has always been of one of the best home pitchers to bet on over the last few years. It just so happens that only one of his first 5 starts has been at home. He has also had good success against inexperienced lineups, as he often takes advantage of the lack of patience they are prone to display on the mound. When pitching well, Hudson could really go deep into games, which is a huge asset, as the Braves bullpen remains inconsistent and prone to blowing leads. The Rockies were able to get by the last two series without Helton, as their counterparts were struggling lineups in their own right. It is just a matter of time that his absence will take its toll on the team.

Cons:
Laying this large of odds on an underachieving team facing an overachieving team certainly has its risks. Hudson just doesn’t seem to be himself right now, and is clearly lacking confidence. If this trend continues, the Braves will be in huge trouble in this game because their bullpen has been a nightmare this season. The Rockies have played better on the road this year than any other team. Young teams need confidence, and they are certainly playing with some right now. The Rockies surprisingly have a big bullpen advantage in this series.

Conclusion:
This is a good series for an underachieving Braves team and Hudson to get back on track. The Rockies are simply not a good enough to keep this recent run going. Expect things to finally return to where they should be in this game. I like the Braves.
 

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Phillies @ Marlins:
Play: Phillies +132
Comment:
Pros:
Simply put, you just can’t lay these kinds of odds on the worst team in baseball, no matter who is pitching. The Marlins lack the hitting, which offsets the effects of having a top tier pitcher on the mound. The Phillies are an underachieving team. Underachieving teams always make for compelling underdog bets, as they could strike at any moment. I still stand by my assumption that the Phillies potentially have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. Once Willis leaves the game, this lineup has a huge advantage against a horrible Marlins bullpen, leading me to believe no potential lead is safe for the Marlins. The Phillies bats are also much better against southpaws than what they have been showcasing so far this season. They also got a good look at a nasty southpaw yesterday, which is always good for a lineup facing one the following day.

This is also a good spot for Madson to finally start pitching like he did in spring training. In past years, he has dominated a much more dangerous Marlins lineup, as he come into today’s game with a career 2.25 ERA, .171 OBA, and whip well below one against them. This should be a big boost of confidence for a young pitcher that is clearly lacking any right now. His horrific numbers are also a bit misleading, as the one inning of work and nine runs allowed to the Nationals took its toll on his numbers. Madson is another one of those young pitchers that seems more comfortable pitching on the road. He has also dominated the Marlins only good hitter, as Cabrera has only two hits in 13 at bats against him. He is backed by a well rested bullpen that got some adequate rest against the Pirates.

Cons:
Willis has dominated the Phillies in the past and almost every hitter in the lineup. If he is able to get deep into this game, the Phillies should struggle putting runs on the board. The Phillies have also struggled hitting lefties this year, and have really struggled in the clutch as well. These are all variables you don’t want when being backed by such an unpredictable pitcher like Madson. Madson has the ability to struggle against any lineup in baseball, as his horrific start against the Nationals proved. He is nowhere near the level he was this spring, and his propensity to telegraph his pitchers has allowed hitters to hit him at an alarming rate so far this year. Lastly, the Phillies bullpen is not one you want to have your money on, and the fact that Madson has not done a good job to avoid them, is a concern.

Conclusion:
You got to love the idea that the Phillies are underdog against the worst team in baseball. One player simply doesn’t warrant such a price tag. This is also a good spot for Madson to return to form, as he faces an anemic lineup he has had success against. I will gladly fade the worst team in baseball while getting 30 basis points in doing so.
 

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White Sox @ Indians:
Play: Indians -106
Comment:
Pros:

There is no other team in baseball that plays better “small ball” (smart ball) than the White Sox. Therefore, I am not in the least bit surprised that they were able sweep the Angels at home over the weekend, as the Angels tried to beat them at their own game. fortunately for the Indians, they are the furthest thing from “small ball” there is, and bring a brand of baseball to the diamond that the White Sox have consistently struggled against over the last couple of years. For this reason, the Indians have the embedded advantage in this series.

The Indians have also consistently had success against power pitchers. This does not bode well for Vasquez who is a power pitcher much similar to Beckett, who got destroyed by the Indians last week. Vasquez is very vulnerable against allowing the long ball, and finally faces a power hitting team. For this reason, one should not assume that he will be able to keep his impressive numbers going after this game. He has also struggled against the Indians in the past, and has never been a quality road pitcher before. He has been known to be an “on again” “off again” pitcher, and he is fundamentally and technically due to have a bad outing. He is also backed by a bullpen that is nowhere near the level it was last year. It is also a bullpen that has struggled against the Indians already this year.

The Indians bullpen has also been a complete disaster. Therefore, having a quality starting pitcher is highly important for this ball club. No other pitcher on this team is pitching better than Lee so far this season. He has also historically been a much better home pitcher as well as first half pitcher over the years. He appears to be getting better each year, and has quietly become one of the more undervalued southpaws in baseball. The Indians bullpen weakness is mainly its long relief. They have a decent 8th and 9th inning pitcher, so if Lee is able to pitch another solid home outing, the Indians have a good shot of pulling this game out.

Cons:
Fading one of the best teams and best road team in baseball while not getting basis points in compensation is not the most compelling bet in the world. The White Sox are in a groove right now, and are playing better baseball than during the first two series they played the Indians this year. The same can not be said for the Indians ball club. Vasquez seems to be another pitcher that has substantially improved under the tutelage of Cooper. Lee has historically struggled against this White Sox lineup and several of their hitters. The Sox are also one of the better hitters against lefties over the last couple of years. The concerning part about Lee is his inability to eat up innings even when he is pitching well. This leads me to believe that the suspect Indians bullpen is unavoidable today.

Conclusion:
The last power pitcher the Indians faced, they put up 15 runs in that game. Vasquez has been fortunate enough to pitch against lineups that can’t take advantage of his deficiency so far this year. The White Sox have been fortunate enough to play teams that have been trying to beat them at their own game. Both come to an end today. I like the Indians.
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Padres @ Giants
Padres -112
Comment:
Pros:
You can’t ask for anything better to happen for the most struggling lineup in baseball than what happened in the ninth inning to the Padres on Sunday. After their lineup was in the process of once again being dominated, their bats came alive to score 5 in the ninth to allow for an extra inning win. The best thing for a struggling lineup is to gain confidence and momentum, two things that they now finally having coming into tonight’s game.

This is also a good spot for both pitchers to regress to their mean. Peavy is off to a slow start this season, and is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Diamondbacks. Peavy has always bounced back from such outings, including a solid bounce back start this year against the Braves, which followed a poor outing against the Rockies. Peavy’s only win this year came on opening day, where he dominated this Giants ball club. He has consistently pitched the Giants well, and is progressively getting better against them each year, as he is able to take advantage of the Giants hitter’s tendencies he is learning more about each year. Last year, Peavy had an ERA well below 2 against the Giants. He has had success against almost every Giants hitter that he will face today, including Bonds, and their hottest hitter Alou, who is hitting .231 against him. He has also dominated the likes of Feliz (4 for 19), Vizquel (2 for 12) Winn( 3 for 14), and Matheny(1 for 11). This should help avoid the suspect middle relief the Padres have been putting on the mound this year.

Wright continues to be pitching over his head so far this year, but is slowly showing signs of his former self, and is coming off start in which he allowed 10 hits. Wright has always been a much better road pitcher, so the advantage most home pitchers have is clearly lacking in this game. In fact, his career home ERA is 6, a far cry from his 4.2 road ERA. In the past, the Padres have also given him fits, as he has a career ERA well over 5 against them, and has only managed 3 wins in 15 starts against him. He has also struggled against Giles in the past. This is huge, as the Padres heavily rely on him to get things going for them. A couple of other players have had success against him as well, and it’s just a matter of time until Cameron makes this lineup more dangerous. The Giants bullpen continues to struggle, and no potential lead is safe when they are involved.

Cons:
The Padres just seem out of it this year. Their hitting is horrible, their fielding is sub par, and their bullpen is weak. Even Peavy has not pitched to form this year. Betting on such a team certainly involves a lot of speculation, as clearly sound fundamentals are lacking. Wright seems to be a totally new pitcher this year. This leads me to believe his fast start this year is more sustainable than the ones in years past. The Giants also play much better at home, and come into this game with home field advantage as well as the better lineup.

Conclusion:
This is a small price to pay on Peavy, especially when facing a team that he has dominated in the past. I will gladly take him at this price in a bounce back start.
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