Hey all, went 2-4 and blew 460 last night. I watched a lot of the games and came away with a few observations.
The D-Train pitched well enough to win last night, just a few mental breakdowns by the youthful Marlins cost him. When they were up 5-2 and the bases jacked, a little blooper to right fell in to score 2. But Rollins alertly noticed the 2B Uggla (who had torched the Phillies for a single, double and homer already) had his head down after retrieving the bloop and scored all the way from first, tying it at 5. Burrell's homer later gave Philly an insurmountable lead. Surprisingly, FLA had no one up in the pen after Willis began to struggle in the top of the 7th when all that went down.
On that same broadcast, I saw a first: the mascot was in the hot tub in the outfield. No coincidence that the chicks in there coulda easily passed for models or porn-stars, they were downright HOT...
Arroyo continues to roll for the Redlegs. Five wins and the season isn't even a month old for the Reds, looking like their new GM pulled the strings there. Pena is a big-time talent and prospect but Arroyo is producing NOW. His last start of the spring against Boston was a sign of things to come, as he struck out a bunch and kept the Reds competitive. If they get keep getting that from their starters, they become one more team who can play in that division.
Zambrano just had to shut me up with that performance last night didn't he? Though the Senator lineup was depleted, it still is good news for the Mets to develop another starter to chew up innings and get a win.
The Rockies ran into a hot Hudson last night, and though I didn't see any of it, my buddy told me Hudson was just on his game. No matter, I'm going back with the resillient Rockies tonight. Cook is 9-1 with a 3.33 ERA in his last 15 road starts. How is he this kind of dog??
I lost with Pitt last night as Marshall gave the Flubs another quality start. But I'm going back to the well - Duke is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in three starts against the Cubs, and won both of his starts at Wrigley Field last season, allowing just one ER in 16 innings.
Baseball is a funny game. The Dodgers were completely and totally outplayed by Arizona in the first of a weekend set in LA about 11 days ago (Fri) yet still found a way to win. Last night was totally the opposite. The Dodgers hit the ball on the button all night, but right at people. The DP that Repko hit to Councill was a bullet. I guess things have a way of evening themselves out. Speaking of funny, I'm not sure there's an announcer I like more in baseball than Mark Grace of FSN Arizona. Sure, Vin is the best announcer of all-time, hands-down. But Gracey is full of antecdotes and humor and makes getting through 9 innings that much easier. It was also nice to see my late UNDER cash there. I was looking for a spot where they would plug in Vanover (he had gone over all his games this year and the last one of '05, but still is a notorious UNDER ump). Sorry I was at the house with no computer to post this one, so it stays off the record, but Mykesy knows, he was there too...
The Red Sox captured game 1 this season against the Bronx Bombers, and after seeing their attitude coming in as compared to New York's, it's not too surprising. Boston and its fans wanted this game much more than the apathetic Yankees.
Poor Runelvys Hernandez. Pitches a gem and can't get support against Bonderman, of all people. Pick and choose your spots for him, though, because he should rarely if ever be plus 240, even if he pitches for KC. This guy is a star in the making. Bad beat for the Tiger RL bettors, as Todd Jones comes in and fucks it up by giving up 2 in the 9th...
Loe and McDung??? Consider me shocked.
Onto the card today. Now 20-25-1 and down 285 on the year.
Got this one last night at CRIS because I knew it was a one-way street. Reds, day-game, pOncinO, at Great OVERican Ballpark, 2 shitty pitchers... need I say more?
The play: STL/CIN OVER 10.5 -110 - 550 to win 500
I'll repeat this stat from earlier in case you weren't reading...
Duke is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in three starts against the Cubs, and won both of his starts at Wrigley Field last season, allowing just one earned run in 16 innings. That road losing streak is the only reason I'm not betting more.
The play: Pittsburgh -105 - 210 to win 200
Marsh's strike percentage is an ordinary 61.4 but he's got 4 O's and 1 U to his credit, which parallels his history as an OVER guy. Considering he's been back there for good pitchers (Maddux, the Gambler both went O in '06) and he's still yielding 10.8 RPG, I'll bite once again in Florida as the 'Fish have been hitting it a little better and have enough defensive lapses to allow some on that side too. At 0-4, Lieber has really struggled.
Good trends are on our side here too. OVER is 11-3 in PHI L-14 night games.
OVER is 19-7-2 in FLA L- 28 home games.Head to Head: PHI are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, and OVER is 36-15-1 in the L-52 meetings
The play: PHI/FLA OVER 8.5 -114 - 342 to win 300
I said it earlier, and I'll repeat... Cook is 9-1 with a 3.33 ERA in his last 15 road starts. How is he this kind of dog??
The play: ROCKIES plus 125 - 200 to win 250
Gibson and his 59.8 strike percentage appears tonight at the BOB for Odalis and El Duque. Gibson 4-1 O/U in '06 with 11.20 RPG. Both ERA's are over 5, and trends favor OVER as well (OVER is 8-2-1 in ARI last 11 night games;
OVER is 11-4-1 in ARI last 16 overall).
The play: OVER 9.5 -105 - 315 to win 300
This Chicago line has got to be a joke. Buehrle beat Sabathia on opening day and this is the fat guy's first start since that opener (before this year, he was 3-0 head-to-head vs. Buehrle). This White Sox team is rolling. Even without Thome in the lineup today, they should still have their way in Sabathia's first start off the shelf. Meanwhile, I like betting on good pitchers off bad starts, and last time out was Buehrle's worst of the season (only bad one). Buehrle won his previous three starts, giving up three runs with 11 strikeouts and holding hitters to a .181 average. The ChiSox have won 8 straight at Jacobs Field and are 16-3 there since May 2004.
The play: ChiSox -114 - 342 to win 300
ChiSox -1.5 plus 145 at Jazz - 200 to win 290
Gonna try a correlated thing. Toronto is 13-2 this season when scoring six runs or more, and 0-9 when scoring five or fewer. The Jays have plated at least seven runs in each of their last 11 victories. Assuming they keep that up, I'll go with them and OVER in Baltimore.
The play: 2team parlay OVER 9.5 -125 and Toronto plus 115 - 150 to win 430.50
Fieldin Culbreath behind the dish tonight in Detroit, where the Tigers have held MIN and KC to 3 runs total in the last 4 games (2 of which came in the KC 9th off Jones last night). His first 2 flew over, but the last 2 he did were both 2-1 games and his 64.9 strike percentage fits in well with the UNDER. Strong trends favor the UNDER and the money came for over a bit ago, giving me even more value here. UNDER is 16-5-1 in DET last 22 night games;
UNDER is 12-4-3 in DET last 19 home games; and most impressively, UNDER is 15-2-1 in Maroth's last 18 starts vs. KC.
The play: KC/DET UNDER 9 -115 - 460 to win 400
Leaned to OVER in Minny tonight but in the four games that Gorman has umped where Santana pitched, they all went UNDER, and none were close (3-2 was the high score). Also, his 64.4 percent strike ratio puts him on the borderline of being a club member. Pass.
GL all...
:thumbsup2:
The D-Train pitched well enough to win last night, just a few mental breakdowns by the youthful Marlins cost him. When they were up 5-2 and the bases jacked, a little blooper to right fell in to score 2. But Rollins alertly noticed the 2B Uggla (who had torched the Phillies for a single, double and homer already) had his head down after retrieving the bloop and scored all the way from first, tying it at 5. Burrell's homer later gave Philly an insurmountable lead. Surprisingly, FLA had no one up in the pen after Willis began to struggle in the top of the 7th when all that went down.
On that same broadcast, I saw a first: the mascot was in the hot tub in the outfield. No coincidence that the chicks in there coulda easily passed for models or porn-stars, they were downright HOT...
Arroyo continues to roll for the Redlegs. Five wins and the season isn't even a month old for the Reds, looking like their new GM pulled the strings there. Pena is a big-time talent and prospect but Arroyo is producing NOW. His last start of the spring against Boston was a sign of things to come, as he struck out a bunch and kept the Reds competitive. If they get keep getting that from their starters, they become one more team who can play in that division.
Zambrano just had to shut me up with that performance last night didn't he? Though the Senator lineup was depleted, it still is good news for the Mets to develop another starter to chew up innings and get a win.
The Rockies ran into a hot Hudson last night, and though I didn't see any of it, my buddy told me Hudson was just on his game. No matter, I'm going back with the resillient Rockies tonight. Cook is 9-1 with a 3.33 ERA in his last 15 road starts. How is he this kind of dog??
I lost with Pitt last night as Marshall gave the Flubs another quality start. But I'm going back to the well - Duke is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in three starts against the Cubs, and won both of his starts at Wrigley Field last season, allowing just one ER in 16 innings.
Baseball is a funny game. The Dodgers were completely and totally outplayed by Arizona in the first of a weekend set in LA about 11 days ago (Fri) yet still found a way to win. Last night was totally the opposite. The Dodgers hit the ball on the button all night, but right at people. The DP that Repko hit to Councill was a bullet. I guess things have a way of evening themselves out. Speaking of funny, I'm not sure there's an announcer I like more in baseball than Mark Grace of FSN Arizona. Sure, Vin is the best announcer of all-time, hands-down. But Gracey is full of antecdotes and humor and makes getting through 9 innings that much easier. It was also nice to see my late UNDER cash there. I was looking for a spot where they would plug in Vanover (he had gone over all his games this year and the last one of '05, but still is a notorious UNDER ump). Sorry I was at the house with no computer to post this one, so it stays off the record, but Mykesy knows, he was there too...
The Red Sox captured game 1 this season against the Bronx Bombers, and after seeing their attitude coming in as compared to New York's, it's not too surprising. Boston and its fans wanted this game much more than the apathetic Yankees.
Poor Runelvys Hernandez. Pitches a gem and can't get support against Bonderman, of all people. Pick and choose your spots for him, though, because he should rarely if ever be plus 240, even if he pitches for KC. This guy is a star in the making. Bad beat for the Tiger RL bettors, as Todd Jones comes in and fucks it up by giving up 2 in the 9th...
Loe and McDung??? Consider me shocked.
Onto the card today. Now 20-25-1 and down 285 on the year.
Got this one last night at CRIS because I knew it was a one-way street. Reds, day-game, pOncinO, at Great OVERican Ballpark, 2 shitty pitchers... need I say more?
The play: STL/CIN OVER 10.5 -110 - 550 to win 500
I'll repeat this stat from earlier in case you weren't reading...
Duke is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in three starts against the Cubs, and won both of his starts at Wrigley Field last season, allowing just one earned run in 16 innings. That road losing streak is the only reason I'm not betting more.
The play: Pittsburgh -105 - 210 to win 200
Marsh's strike percentage is an ordinary 61.4 but he's got 4 O's and 1 U to his credit, which parallels his history as an OVER guy. Considering he's been back there for good pitchers (Maddux, the Gambler both went O in '06) and he's still yielding 10.8 RPG, I'll bite once again in Florida as the 'Fish have been hitting it a little better and have enough defensive lapses to allow some on that side too. At 0-4, Lieber has really struggled.
Good trends are on our side here too. OVER is 11-3 in PHI L-14 night games.
OVER is 19-7-2 in FLA L- 28 home games.Head to Head: PHI are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, and OVER is 36-15-1 in the L-52 meetings
The play: PHI/FLA OVER 8.5 -114 - 342 to win 300
I said it earlier, and I'll repeat... Cook is 9-1 with a 3.33 ERA in his last 15 road starts. How is he this kind of dog??
The play: ROCKIES plus 125 - 200 to win 250
Gibson and his 59.8 strike percentage appears tonight at the BOB for Odalis and El Duque. Gibson 4-1 O/U in '06 with 11.20 RPG. Both ERA's are over 5, and trends favor OVER as well (OVER is 8-2-1 in ARI last 11 night games;
OVER is 11-4-1 in ARI last 16 overall).
The play: OVER 9.5 -105 - 315 to win 300
This Chicago line has got to be a joke. Buehrle beat Sabathia on opening day and this is the fat guy's first start since that opener (before this year, he was 3-0 head-to-head vs. Buehrle). This White Sox team is rolling. Even without Thome in the lineup today, they should still have their way in Sabathia's first start off the shelf. Meanwhile, I like betting on good pitchers off bad starts, and last time out was Buehrle's worst of the season (only bad one). Buehrle won his previous three starts, giving up three runs with 11 strikeouts and holding hitters to a .181 average. The ChiSox have won 8 straight at Jacobs Field and are 16-3 there since May 2004.
The play: ChiSox -114 - 342 to win 300
ChiSox -1.5 plus 145 at Jazz - 200 to win 290
Gonna try a correlated thing. Toronto is 13-2 this season when scoring six runs or more, and 0-9 when scoring five or fewer. The Jays have plated at least seven runs in each of their last 11 victories. Assuming they keep that up, I'll go with them and OVER in Baltimore.
The play: 2team parlay OVER 9.5 -125 and Toronto plus 115 - 150 to win 430.50
Fieldin Culbreath behind the dish tonight in Detroit, where the Tigers have held MIN and KC to 3 runs total in the last 4 games (2 of which came in the KC 9th off Jones last night). His first 2 flew over, but the last 2 he did were both 2-1 games and his 64.9 strike percentage fits in well with the UNDER. Strong trends favor the UNDER and the money came for over a bit ago, giving me even more value here. UNDER is 16-5-1 in DET last 22 night games;
UNDER is 12-4-3 in DET last 19 home games; and most impressively, UNDER is 15-2-1 in Maroth's last 18 starts vs. KC.
The play: KC/DET UNDER 9 -115 - 460 to win 400
Leaned to OVER in Minny tonight but in the four games that Gorman has umped where Santana pitched, they all went UNDER, and none were close (3-2 was the high score). Also, his 64.4 percent strike ratio puts him on the borderline of being a club member. Pass.
GL all...
:thumbsup2:
