MLB: Tuesday Plays

I will be back with my later plays later today.



Pirates @ Cubs
Play: Pirates -110
Comment:
Pros:
Call me crazy for recommending a 1-13 road team laying basis points, but I see some value today on the Pirates. Duke is one of the biggest pitching prospects in baseball that still hasn’t showcased his best stuff this year. However, he has absolutely owned the Cubs so far in his young career, as he comes into today’s game with a .78 ERA against them. Duke has allowed only 2 earned runs in 23 innings of work against the Cubs, including his best start this year where he allowed one run in seven innings of work against them. The Cubs lineup seems lost without Lee, and has looked horrible at the plate, especially in the clutch. In the last 3 games, they have managed only 4 runs. They have also struggled all year against left handed pitching, as they enter today’s game with a .195 batting average against southpaws. Duke seems to have settled down from his early season fiasco against the Dodgers, and is one of the young pitchers that have proven more than capable of pitching on the road. Duke has won his only two starts in Wrigley, and allowed only 1 run in 18 innings of work there. It’s hard to imagine the Cubs finally being able to get the upper hand in this duel, as they lack confidence and hitting productivity without Lee in the lineup. The Pirates bullpen is pretty decent at holding on to potential leads, but have had limited opportunities to prove so.

There is no denying the ongoing struggles the Pirates have been having at the plate. However, the best thing a struggling lineup can get is being able to face a pitcher that struggles with his control and has a high propensity to allow free passes. Enter Guzman, a power pitcher that struggled with his control during his stint in Triple A, as well as his major league debut, where he allowed 4 walks in 5 innings against an inferior Marlins lineup. Guzman has the potential to be dominant, as his strikeouts in Triple A would attest. However, he was called up after having a whopping 6 plus ERA in the minors this year, and has also been known to struggle mentally on the mound as well. He also lacks the ability to go deep into games, thus the Cubs weakness, their long relief, will more the likely not be avoided today. The Pirates do have a better lineup than the one they have been showcasing during their slump, and should be helped by some walks today.

Cons:
Laying basis points on a 1-13 road team can be one of the most suspect bets I make all season. The Pirates are clearly a bottom feeder team that is lacking confidence right now. They seem to be finding ways to lose, and appear to be going into games expecting to lose as well. One can not assume Duke will continue to pitch the Cubs in the dominating fashion he has in the past. One also can’t assume that their lineup will continue to lay this dormant without Lee. It’s just a matter of time that their lineup will break out. Duke appears to have been struggling with his control the last couple of starts, as his walk total was abnormally high. Like Guzman, the last thing you want to give a struggling Cubs lineup is free passes.

Conclusion:
Even with the horrific start the Pirates have had on the road, in my opinion, they are undervalued today. They come into today’s game with the better lineup, the superior pitcher, and should put the better bullpen pitchers on the mound today. Until the Cubs can prove they can hit left handers, hit Duke, and hit without Lee, I have no problem fading them at a small price. I like the Pirates to win number 2 today.<!-- / message -->

Rangers @ Devil Rays
Play: Rangers -104
Comment:
Pros:
Rarely do I play the same team in consecutive games, but I see enough compelling variables in this game that makes me feel the Rangers once again warrant another play. As expected, the Devil Rays laid an egg the game following a Red Sox series. They clearly didn’t play with the same intensity yesterday as they played with the last two series against the Yankees and Red Sox. Playing the Yankees tomorrow makes me feel that they play with the same lack of intensity today. Today the Rangers send Tejada to the mound, as he is making his first start of the season. Last year he was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, as he was often dominant and un-hittable. What has been his Achilles heal has been his ability to potentially struggle hitting the strike zone, leading to a lot of walks. With that said, today he faces one of the youngest and more inexperienced lineups in baseball that often struggle taking pitches and drawing walks. If he pitches at the level he was last year, the Devil Rays will have a hard time scoring. He is also backed by a well rested bullpen that only pitched two innings yesterday.

Don’t let Hendrickson’s fast start fool year. He is nowhere near the quality pitcher that he resembled in his first two starts. He also now must face a lineup that is hitting left handed pitching better than any other team in baseball right now. As a whole, the Rangers are batting an impressive .313 against southpaws year to date, and have had success against Hendrickson in the limited action they saw him in past years. He is also backed once again by one of the worst bullpens in baseball that simply are overmatched by the Rangers lineup that is playing with a lot of confidence right now.

Cons:
A lot of speculation involved in this bet. First off, it’s hard to tell what kind of outing Tejada will put in today, as I haven’t seen him pitch in a while, nor has he ever faced this team before. In the past, he has struggled keeping his walk total down. This is very unappealing when facing a sub par lineup, as one would want a pitcher to force the inferior lineup to make things happen with their bats. Tejada is not known to eat up a lot of innings, so the Rangers sub par long relief is certain to see some action today. Wilson is not a good pitcher, while Benoit has struggled against the Devil Rays in the past. I am also speculating that Hendrickson can’t keep pitching the way he did in his first two starts, because he has shown no fundamentals to make me think this. He appears to have a lot more control over the location of his pitches this year, and seems like a brand new pitcher. Last week the Yankees couldn’t touch him. This is especially concerning because they owned him in the past. The Rangers bats also looked a bit flat yesterday. I also might be going to the well too many times in this spot, as it’s hard to imagine a historically poor road team to keep winning on the road.

Conclusion:
The Devil Rays lineup is a sub par lineup that’s injured and doesn’t play with the same intensity during out of division games. The Rangers lineup is a potent lineup that is playing with a lot of confidence and has torn up lefties this year. Hendrickson is pitching over his head right now, while Tejada is one of the unheralded young pitchers in the league. In my opinion, the Rangers are worth the risks the entail today at even money.
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Rockies @ Braves
Play: Braves -131
Comment:
Pros:
Like the Rangers, I am riding the Braves again today. The Rockies lineup is starting to resemble last year’s anemic lineup more and more. They are also clearly showing that they miss Helton’s bat in the middle of the order. Yesterday they continued their downward trend at the plate, as they only managed 1 hit against Hudson. Today the face a pitcher that was dominant last year, but is going through some early season struggles. With that said, Sosa is coming off his best start of the season, and resembled the Sosa of last year against the Brewers last week. Sosa also has the ability to keep his walk total down, an asset that is magnified when facing a struggling lineup. Thanks to Hudson’s ability to pitch the entire game yesterday, the Braves bullpen is well rested entering today’s game. The last few years, the Rockies have been the worst road team in baseball. But their solid early season road play against inferior teams has factored in this line as a sustainable trend, thus creating value in the line.

Cook is a pitcher that makes for a more appealing bet when facing home run hitting teams and in hitters parks. His ability to use the sinker ball effectively counteracts these two variables. However, both variables are not a factor in today’s game. Last year, Cook really struggled against the Braves, including a horrific start in Turner Field. There are few hitters in today’s lineup that has had decent success against him in limited at bats. Andruw Jones and Renteria have been on a tear this year against left handed pitching, while the Braves lineup has become a lot more dangerous with the return of Chipper and Renteria.

Cons:
Just when you thought the Braves bats were going to show some signs of life, they laid an egg yesterday against a sub par pitcher. Cook is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league. The Braves team as a whole has really been struggling against southpaws this year. The Rockies are also backing Cook with an underrated bullpen that has the edge of the bullpen backing Sosa. Even when Sosa is pitching well, he isn’t known to eat up innings. This means the Braves struggling long relief is certain to step foot on the mound today. On the surface, laying basis points on a team that has the inferior starting pitcher and bullpen is very unappealing.

Conclusion:
Laying these kinds of odds on one of the better home teams in baseball playing against a team that has been known to struggle on the road is a bargain. Cook is still not the quality pitcher that his stats might indicate, while Sosa is a much better pitcher than the one he showcases earlier this year. A lot of non sustainable trends have created good value on the Braves in my opinion.
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Rockies @ Braves
Play: Braves -131
Comment:
Pros:
Like the Rangers, I am riding the Braves again today. The Rockies lineup is starting to resemble last year’s anemic lineup more and more. They are also clearly showing that they miss Helton’s bat in the middle of the order. Yesterday they continued their downward trend at the plate, as they only managed 1 hit against Hudson. Today the face a pitcher that was dominant last year, but is going through some early season struggles. With that said, Sosa is coming off his best start of the season, and resembled the Sosa of last year against the Brewers last week. Sosa also has the ability to keep his walk total down, an asset that is magnified when facing a struggling lineup. Thanks to Hudson’s ability to pitch the entire game yesterday, the Braves bullpen is well rested entering today’s game. The last few years, the Rockies have been the worst road team in baseball. But their solid early season road play against inferior teams has factored in this line as a sustainable trend, thus creating value in the line.

Cook is a pitcher that makes for a more appealing bet when facing home run hitting teams and in hitters parks. His ability to use the sinker ball effectively counteracts these two variables. However, both variables are not a factor in today’s game. Last year, Cook really struggled against the Braves, including a horrific start in Turner Field. There are few hitters in today’s lineup that has had decent success against him in limited at bats. Andruw Jones and Renteria have been on a tear this year against left handed pitching, while the Braves lineup has become a lot more dangerous with the return of Chipper and Renteria.

Cons:
Just when you thought the Braves bats were going to show some signs of life, they laid an egg yesterday against a sub par pitcher. Cook is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league. The Braves team as a whole has really been struggling against southpaws this year. The Rockies are also backing Cook with an underrated bullpen that has the edge of the bullpen backing Sosa. Even when Sosa is pitching well, he isn’t known to eat up innings. This means the Braves struggling long relief is certain to step foot on the mound today. On the surface, laying basis points on a team that has the inferior starting pitcher and bullpen is very unappealing.

Conclusion:
Laying these kinds of odds on one of the better home teams in baseball playing against a team that has been known to struggle on the road is a bargain. Cook is still not the quality pitcher that his stats might indicate, while Sosa is a much better pitcher than the one he showcases earlier this year. A lot of non sustainable trends have created good value on the Braves in my opinion.
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