I will be back with my later plays later today.
Pirates @ Cubs
Play: Pirates -110
Comment:
Pros:
Call me crazy for recommending a 1-13 road team laying basis points, but I see some value today on the Pirates. Duke is one of the biggest pitching prospects in baseball that still hasn’t showcased his best stuff this year. However, he has absolutely owned the Cubs so far in his young career, as he comes into today’s game with a .78 ERA against them. Duke has allowed only 2 earned runs in 23 innings of work against the Cubs, including his best start this year where he allowed one run in seven innings of work against them. The Cubs lineup seems lost without Lee, and has looked horrible at the plate, especially in the clutch. In the last 3 games, they have managed only 4 runs. They have also struggled all year against left handed pitching, as they enter today’s game with a .195 batting average against southpaws. Duke seems to have settled down from his early season fiasco against the Dodgers, and is one of the young pitchers that have proven more than capable of pitching on the road. Duke has won his only two starts in Wrigley, and allowed only 1 run in 18 innings of work there. It’s hard to imagine the Cubs finally being able to get the upper hand in this duel, as they lack confidence and hitting productivity without Lee in the lineup. The Pirates bullpen is pretty decent at holding on to potential leads, but have had limited opportunities to prove so.
There is no denying the ongoing struggles the Pirates have been having at the plate. However, the best thing a struggling lineup can get is being able to face a pitcher that struggles with his control and has a high propensity to allow free passes. Enter Guzman, a power pitcher that struggled with his control during his stint in Triple A, as well as his major league debut, where he allowed 4 walks in 5 innings against an inferior Marlins lineup. Guzman has the potential to be dominant, as his strikeouts in Triple A would attest. However, he was called up after having a whopping 6 plus ERA in the minors this year, and has also been known to struggle mentally on the mound as well. He also lacks the ability to go deep into games, thus the Cubs weakness, their long relief, will more the likely not be avoided today. The Pirates do have a better lineup than the one they have been showcasing during their slump, and should be helped by some walks today.
Cons:
Laying basis points on a 1-13 road team can be one of the most suspect bets I make all season. The Pirates are clearly a bottom feeder team that is lacking confidence right now. They seem to be finding ways to lose, and appear to be going into games expecting to lose as well. One can not assume Duke will continue to pitch the Cubs in the dominating fashion he has in the past. One also can’t assume that their lineup will continue to lay this dormant without Lee. It’s just a matter of time that their lineup will break out. Duke appears to have been struggling with his control the last couple of starts, as his walk total was abnormally high. Like Guzman, the last thing you want to give a struggling Cubs lineup is free passes.
Conclusion:
Even with the horrific start the Pirates have had on the road, in my opinion, they are undervalued today. They come into today’s game with the better lineup, the superior pitcher, and should put the better bullpen pitchers on the mound today. Until the Cubs can prove they can hit left handers, hit Duke, and hit without Lee, I have no problem fading them at a small price. I like the Pirates to win number 2 today.<!-- / message -->
Pirates @ Cubs
Play: Pirates -110
Comment:
Pros:
Call me crazy for recommending a 1-13 road team laying basis points, but I see some value today on the Pirates. Duke is one of the biggest pitching prospects in baseball that still hasn’t showcased his best stuff this year. However, he has absolutely owned the Cubs so far in his young career, as he comes into today’s game with a .78 ERA against them. Duke has allowed only 2 earned runs in 23 innings of work against the Cubs, including his best start this year where he allowed one run in seven innings of work against them. The Cubs lineup seems lost without Lee, and has looked horrible at the plate, especially in the clutch. In the last 3 games, they have managed only 4 runs. They have also struggled all year against left handed pitching, as they enter today’s game with a .195 batting average against southpaws. Duke seems to have settled down from his early season fiasco against the Dodgers, and is one of the young pitchers that have proven more than capable of pitching on the road. Duke has won his only two starts in Wrigley, and allowed only 1 run in 18 innings of work there. It’s hard to imagine the Cubs finally being able to get the upper hand in this duel, as they lack confidence and hitting productivity without Lee in the lineup. The Pirates bullpen is pretty decent at holding on to potential leads, but have had limited opportunities to prove so.
There is no denying the ongoing struggles the Pirates have been having at the plate. However, the best thing a struggling lineup can get is being able to face a pitcher that struggles with his control and has a high propensity to allow free passes. Enter Guzman, a power pitcher that struggled with his control during his stint in Triple A, as well as his major league debut, where he allowed 4 walks in 5 innings against an inferior Marlins lineup. Guzman has the potential to be dominant, as his strikeouts in Triple A would attest. However, he was called up after having a whopping 6 plus ERA in the minors this year, and has also been known to struggle mentally on the mound as well. He also lacks the ability to go deep into games, thus the Cubs weakness, their long relief, will more the likely not be avoided today. The Pirates do have a better lineup than the one they have been showcasing during their slump, and should be helped by some walks today.
Cons:
Laying basis points on a 1-13 road team can be one of the most suspect bets I make all season. The Pirates are clearly a bottom feeder team that is lacking confidence right now. They seem to be finding ways to lose, and appear to be going into games expecting to lose as well. One can not assume Duke will continue to pitch the Cubs in the dominating fashion he has in the past. One also can’t assume that their lineup will continue to lay this dormant without Lee. It’s just a matter of time that their lineup will break out. Duke appears to have been struggling with his control the last couple of starts, as his walk total was abnormally high. Like Guzman, the last thing you want to give a struggling Cubs lineup is free passes.
Conclusion:
Even with the horrific start the Pirates have had on the road, in my opinion, they are undervalued today. They come into today’s game with the better lineup, the superior pitcher, and should put the better bullpen pitchers on the mound today. Until the Cubs can prove they can hit left handers, hit Duke, and hit without Lee, I have no problem fading them at a small price. I like the Pirates to win number 2 today.<!-- / message -->