Another -1.5 system. Thoughts please

I have been looking at the different -1.5 systems and did some figuring and thinking. Very dangerous for me I'm sure. It does seem like a lot of games are being decided by more than one run. I went through this season and of the 395 games that have been played, 284 of them have been decided by more than one run. That's very close to 72%. Now, I know the percent of games decided by more than one run is less important than the line on the games, but what if a person were to take both sides over every game -1.5 (favorites and alt. run line) for one unit each. Obviously this would work better if the underdog covered the -1.5 more than the favorite, but does anyone think this is worth trying. I am going to look at it over the next couple of weeks with actual numbers to see how it works out. I also have looked at how many times the road team covered the -1.5 compared to the home team and there isn't much difference 145 of the 284.

Please give thoughts, opinions, advice as I am very open to suggestions and not playing this yet, just looking to see how it might work...or might not work.

Too much risk, for a very little reward. No way it would work.

If the fav covers the RL you win nothing. If the Dog wins you win very little, and if it lands on a 1 run game you lose 2 units.

dont waste your time . any system that has a potential of losing both sides is bankroll suicide.

just use 100 plays as a test. at 72 %

28 times you lost 200 . ( at 100 per side )

thats 5600 in losses .

you need an average payback of 78 bucks on the 72 winners to break even.

you wouldnt get anywhere near that. i would bet your average payback wouldnt be more than 50 bucks per winner.

if you want to mess around with this , try picking 1 game a night that you think wont land on 1 run.

you have a 72 % chance of being right ...

Generally speaking road teams have better odds on the run line than the home team. So, although the sheer numbers are similar, the road teams will have paid significantly more. Plus, roadies have a better chance of covering late. Home team has to hit a walk off after the 8th to cover a run line.

I have thought about playing both sides as well. However, I don't think it would work. For it to work you have to play some sort of Martingale system and very often you won't have both teams cover the RL during the same series. Which means one team will be -700 and the other will not win enough to cover that loss and its own losses, if any.

I have a spreadsheet on all the home and road teams on the -1.5 since the middle of week 2 of the season. If you were to play all the home teams -1.5 on a 1-2-4-8 (depending on number of games) since that time, you would be down .2 units. If you played all the roadies on that system, you would be up 21.75 units and up over 40 units in my system (which is basically the same as all roadies, but fading some of the bad teams when they are on the road). Those numbers are through 4/30, not yesterday, but the road teams favored better than home teams over that 2 game set.

Test taking the Dog on the ML and the Favorite -1.5.

You lose 2 units only if the Favorite wins by 1.

At 80%, your winning side has to pay +150 to break even
At 85%, your winning side has to pay +135 to break even
At 90%, your winning side has to pay +122 to break even

thanks for the opinions guys. I knew there was a better way, but wanted some discussion on it.

I know...why not just play the way fhm and SSI have been. That seems to be working very well so far this season.

Deez Nuts said:

I know...why not just play the way fhm and SSI have been. That seems to be working very well so far this season.

Click to expand...

That is what I was thinking. don't out think yourself.

what im doing, may or may not work for the long term but please dont play the double polish middle thing...