NOT ANOTHER BASEBALL SYSTEM
Why not? Everyone else has one!
My second look at the MLB with road system resulted with this system as the best approach. The best sport for the road system is the NBA but I am willing to give baseball a shot. I mentioned before the baseball season started that I would start the first of May ... well here it is!
RESEARCH: My research of last year of the last game of a road trip of 6 games or more with the starting pitchers listed in the top 40 with the best ERA in each league resulted in a record of .... 23 wins and 9 losses for the under with a winning percentage of 71%. The main problem ... just not enough plays so I did some additional research to give additional plays.
I researched each series starting with the 4th game of a road series with both starting pitchers listed in the top 40 with the best ERA in each league for all road teams eliminating inter-league plays and this was the results: 138 wins and 88 loses with 10 pushes for the under with a winning percentage of 61%. Also we will use selected teams when only the home team has a starting pitcher listed in the top 40 to give additional plays.
GOAL: Using the effect of a long road trip against the road team facing a top 40 starting pitcher plus we will counter it with a top 40 starting pitcher for the road team and also using the road series with selected teams when only the home team has a pitcher in the top 40. See rules for exceptions.
RULES: Bet the under for totals on a road series starting with the 4th game with the following criteria:
1. Both starting pitchers must be listed in the top 40 ERA leaders of each league (usa today stats). See exceptions.
2. If loses, double bet plus juice for next play. This bet does not have to be in the same series. This is a big difference compared to the NBA road system. Also we will use restarts in this system.
3. If 2nd bet loses, limited progression will go into effect. Limited progression will be explained later in another post. This is a means of salvaging a series by reducing the total risk compared to full progression. Limited progression is optional.
4. Exceptions: The following road system plays must have both starting pitchers in the top 20 with the following road teams ... st louis, oak, bos, nyy, fl, laa.
5. Other exceptions: We will also make road series plays for selected teams when only the home team has a pitcher in the top 40 with the best ERA in each league. These road teams include nym, was, hou, mil, lad, sd, sf, bal, tor, cws, clev, sea, tx. All others must have both starting pitchers in the top 40 except for road teams listed in rule #4.
6. At times we will buy one-half to a point to increase the totals for the play.
7. The plays start in May giving Apr time to establish stats.
SUMMARY: This is only an experiment and I can not recommend it at this time because of limited data. I plan to use this forum to establish some data. I will give other information on the system as we continue. Again, I believe the NBA with the road system is the best because I have several years of data to back it up. Baseball can be a difficult sport to bet but I will try this on a month to month basis. Our first potential plays start on May 4th.
I will post the potential schedule for this week followed by the plays tomorrow on May 4.
INTERESTED???????
THANKS,
TONY1
Why not? Everyone else has one!
My second look at the MLB with road system resulted with this system as the best approach. The best sport for the road system is the NBA but I am willing to give baseball a shot. I mentioned before the baseball season started that I would start the first of May ... well here it is!
RESEARCH: My research of last year of the last game of a road trip of 6 games or more with the starting pitchers listed in the top 40 with the best ERA in each league resulted in a record of .... 23 wins and 9 losses for the under with a winning percentage of 71%. The main problem ... just not enough plays so I did some additional research to give additional plays.
I researched each series starting with the 4th game of a road series with both starting pitchers listed in the top 40 with the best ERA in each league for all road teams eliminating inter-league plays and this was the results: 138 wins and 88 loses with 10 pushes for the under with a winning percentage of 61%. Also we will use selected teams when only the home team has a starting pitcher listed in the top 40 to give additional plays.
GOAL: Using the effect of a long road trip against the road team facing a top 40 starting pitcher plus we will counter it with a top 40 starting pitcher for the road team and also using the road series with selected teams when only the home team has a pitcher in the top 40. See rules for exceptions.
RULES: Bet the under for totals on a road series starting with the 4th game with the following criteria:
1. Both starting pitchers must be listed in the top 40 ERA leaders of each league (usa today stats). See exceptions.
2. If loses, double bet plus juice for next play. This bet does not have to be in the same series. This is a big difference compared to the NBA road system. Also we will use restarts in this system.
3. If 2nd bet loses, limited progression will go into effect. Limited progression will be explained later in another post. This is a means of salvaging a series by reducing the total risk compared to full progression. Limited progression is optional.
4. Exceptions: The following road system plays must have both starting pitchers in the top 20 with the following road teams ... st louis, oak, bos, nyy, fl, laa.
5. Other exceptions: We will also make road series plays for selected teams when only the home team has a pitcher in the top 40 with the best ERA in each league. These road teams include nym, was, hou, mil, lad, sd, sf, bal, tor, cws, clev, sea, tx. All others must have both starting pitchers in the top 40 except for road teams listed in rule #4.
6. At times we will buy one-half to a point to increase the totals for the play.
7. The plays start in May giving Apr time to establish stats.
SUMMARY: This is only an experiment and I can not recommend it at this time because of limited data. I plan to use this forum to establish some data. I will give other information on the system as we continue. Again, I believe the NBA with the road system is the best because I have several years of data to back it up. Baseball can be a difficult sport to bet but I will try this on a month to month basis. Our first potential plays start on May 4th.
I will post the potential schedule for this week followed by the plays tomorrow on May 4.
INTERESTED???????
THANKS,
TONY1
