MLB: Wednesday Plays

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -106
Comment:
Pros:
The Blue Jays have quickly become a public darling. Public darlings go hand and hand with overvalued teams. Today is no exception.

Don’t let Beckett’s last two starts fool you. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. In his first start against the Blue Jays this year, he dominated them more than any other pitcher has done against this improved Blue Jays lineup year to date. His stats in his second start against the Blue Jays might be a bit misleading, as he pitched them rather well, yet got punished dearly by throwing 3 bad pitches. Beckett is one of the pitchers that have the tendency to get progressively better each time he faces a team in a particular year, so the Blue Jays hitters do not necessarily have the edge by seeing him twice already this year. Beckett has been dominant at home so far this year, and has always made for a much better home bet than road play. He also has proven to have the upper hand against several Blue Jays hitters in tonight’s lineup. Beckett has gotten roughed up in his last two starts, and this is a good opportunity for a bounce back start. Beckett also has the ability to work on a high pitch count, allowing him to be able to avoid the Red Sox suspect long relief. Although the Blue Jays lineup has been on a tear so far this year, most of the damage they have caused has been against southpaws. They are just a slightly above average lineup against right handed so far this season.

In Halladay’s last start, he went into New York and dominated the most potent lineup in baseball. The start before that, he dominated this same Red Sox team. With that said, he has historically struggled against this Red Sox lineup, and he has not pitched terribly well in Fenway either. Halladay, like Beckett is a much more effective pitcher when pitching at home. He also faces a lineup that has seen him numerous times, and the Red Sox lineup has a lot of veterans that are capable of taking advantage of the experience they gathered on a particular pitcher. Nixon and Ortiz have both had past success against Hallday, while the lineup as a whole is hitting the ball much better than they were earlier in the season.

The Red Sox are also the more rested and less traveled team tonight. This is the third road series in a row for the Blue Jays. They also had to play a long game yesterday where they used up a lot of bullpen pitchers. On the other hand, the Red Sox and their bullpen got a much needed day off yesterday, and haven’t traveled since Sunday.

Cons:
Halladay is pitching much better than Beckett as of late. He seems to have much better control of his pitches than in years past, and is showing that his best years are still to come. He is also coming off two starts in which he didn’t throw a lot of pitches. This should allow him to go deep into this game if pitching well, and avoid the fatigued Blue Jays bullpen. Beckett has not looked good in his last two starts. He is consistently missing the strike zone and leaving a lot of pitches up that are prone to home runs. This is the last thing you want when pitching in a notorious hitter’s park against a power lineup like the one the Blue Jays have. A lot of money has been put on the Red Sox since the line came out, and they were a much more attractive bet as a home dog last night.

Conclusion:
The Red Sox have been the hardest team to beat at home over the last couple of years. Due to this, they are rarely a bargain at Fenway. This especially holds true when they send a pitcher as good as Beckett on the mound. Although Halladay is a top tier pitcher, he is still pitching over his head right now. This is a good spot for him to come back to earth, while it’s also a good spot for Beckett to bounce back from his poor outing last week. I will take the Red Sox at this small price today.<!-- / message -->

Cardinals @ Astros
Play: Cardinals +142
Comment:
Pros:
Rarely do you see the perennial best road team in baseball get such basis points in a game. Rarely do you see one of the most underrated road pitchers get such odds as well. However, with the recent slump the Cardinals have been in, they have quickly become an undervalued play today.

Marquis is once again pitching very well on the road this year. Year in and year out, he puts forth his best performances on the road. Although he comes in today’s game with some unimpressive numbers against the Astros, they are a bit misleading. Last year he pitched the Astros better than any other team he faced, as he went 4-0 against them, including 3 dominant starts in Minute Maid Park. Last year, several Astros bats had trouble with him. He is also being backed by a bullpen that rested its best pitchers in yesterday’s game.

Although Oswalt is one of the best home pitchers in baseball, the Cardinals seem to be getting progressively better against him, and appear to have the upper hand on him now. Last year he really struggled against this Cardinals lineup, and finished the year with a 5 plus ERA against them. Last year, and years prior, several hitters in today’s lineup have proven they could hit Oswalt. Oswalt is also not pitching as well as his stats might indicate, and has faced only one lineup that is considered above average. The Astros bullpen has really been struggling against teams in their division. This especially holds true for Lidge, who has the propensity to struggle against lineups that are now accustomed to him. Although the Astros are once again one of the more dominant home teams in baseball, they really haven’t been tested against any good teams yet.

Cons:
Pujols should be back in the lineup today, but his back problems are still a concern. Whenever the most dangerous hitter in baseball is not playing 100 percent, it’s always a huge disadvantage. The Cardinals seem to be in a funk right now, and are really struggling to score runs. In four of their last five games, they scored 3 runs or less. They also seem to have lost that intangible asset of finding ways to win close games, and have not been the road force they were last year. Marquis is coming off two poor outings, and his walk total is starting to go up again. This is the last thing you want when playing in such a hitter’s park. Marquis has also struggled against the two best hitters on the Astros, Berkman and Ensberg, which is a huge liability as his margin of error has the capability of being low, as he is being backed by a struggling lineup going against an elite pitcher. Oswalt is a top five home pitcher in baseball, and some can argue getting only 42 basis points in compensation is not nearly enough. The Astros bullpen seems to have settled down from last week’s disaster.

Conclusion:
Whenever one could get the best road team in baseball at this price, one has to consider long and hard before passing up this deal. Marquis dominated the Astros last year, and is one of the more underrated road pitchers in baseball. The same cannot be said for Oswalt, as he consistently struggled against the Cardinals lineup. I am not sure the Cardinals will win this game, but they have a better chance than what lines makers are trying to make you believe. I have no problem taking my chances on them today, while getting the generous odds in compensation.

Giants @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -112
Comment:
Pros:
This line really stood out for me, as lines makers are making the mistake in valuing Schmidt as the pitcher he was a couple of years ago, which is far from the truth. Schmidt is clearly not the pitcher he was before his injury, and it is really showing in the quality of his pitches. He once again is off to a slow start, and has shown the propensity to struggle finding the plates in games. He has also not been a good road pitcher throughout his career, even when he was at the pinnacle of his career. His solid career numbers against the Brewers are also very misleading, as all those stats were obtained when he was a much effective pitcher. They only faced him once last year, and struggled in that start. He now has to face a much improved Brewers lineup that has become a threat on the top and bottom of the lineup. They have defended their home well this year, and should be motivated to win this game following a game where their ace went down in the fashion that he did. The Giants bullpen is a weakness on the team. Schmidt is a power pitcher that has the propensity to chalk up a lot of pitches. This should prevent him from going deep into this game, forcing the Giants bullpen to pitch a good three innings.

Bush has quietly become one of the most underrated home pitchers in baseball. Nothing has changed this year, as he was dominant in both his home starts this season, being able to go 18 innings and allowing just one run. The fact that he has proven to be an innings eater is especially comforting since the Brewers long relief has been a disaster this year, and was overworked yesterday due to Sheets going down in flames. The Giants lineup has really been struggling at the plate the last few games. I see no reason for this to change, as their hottest hitter, Alou, is either once again out of the lineup today, or will be playing with a nagging hip injury. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Bonds sit today’s game out, as he surprisingly played in yesterday’s day home game, and later had a long travel that evening. The Giants also have a lot of veteran hitters that have struggled all year when facing pitchers that they lack a lot of experience against. Bush has never faced the Giants, and only a couple of hitters have had at bats against him.

Cons:
Schmidt is coming off an impressive start where he showcased a lot of control of his pitches and was able to keep his walk total down. This is especially concerning because even when he struggles, he is still hard to hit. The Brewers are also not one of the most patient lineups in the league, and aren’t that good at drawing walks. The Brewers are also a very inconsistent team, making them one of the hardest teams to handicap. Their games rarely play out to fundamental form (as yesterday would attest), which is concerning because the main premise of this bet is due to fundamental advantages they have in this game. I am also still not completely sold on Bush, and he is coming off a start where he looked very hittable.

Conclusion:
I don’t know why the Brewers are laying such low odds in today’s game when facing a struggling lineup that might be without their two best hitters. Schmidt is clearly overvalued, while the public still doesn’t realize the potential hidden gem Bush may be when pitching at home. I will take this streaky Brewers team at home laying these odds tonight.
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