MLB: Thursday Plays

I will be up with the late game plays later this afternoon. For now, I am going with 2 dogs that posses a lot of value in the early games. Hopefully I could hit at least one.




Mariners @ White Sox
Play: Mariners +154
Comment:
Pros:
I am well aware of how well Contreras has been pitching, and how well the White Sox have been playing the last couple of weeks. However, you just can’t give a pitcher like Hernandez combined with a lineup like the Mariners these kinds of odds. For this reason, I have no problem fading the hottest team and pitcher in baseball.

Hernandez still has yet to pitch to his potential this year. He is coming off a start where he struggled to hit his location early in the game, and was forced to work himself out of a lot of jams. With that said, it’s just a matter of time until he resembles the pitcher he was last year. The new theory for his early season woes is that Hernandez has been tipping his pitches, allowing hitters to know what kind of pitch is coming. In between starts, Hernandez once again worked on his mechanics, and his pitching coach claims he shouldn’t be tipping his pitches from here on out. Whether it’s true or not, I like Hernandez’s chances today, as the White Sox have often times struggled against power pitchers like Hernandez. Lineups that highly depend on manufacturing runs often times struggle against strikeout pitchers, as situational hitting is often times hard to execute. The White Sox also may be without Dye, a huge asset in the middle of their lineup. I also have a feeling the Mariners will allow Putz to get the potential save, which means an automatic blown save is not in the cards for the Mariners today.

Contreras might be the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the last 20 starts. With that said, I don’t think it’s sustainable. First off all, he has yet to be tested against a lineup that fundamentally matches up well with him. Secondly, Contreras is a pitcher that tries to throw as little strikes as possible. This doesn’t not bode well for him today, as home plate up Crawford is notorious for his small zone, which forces lineups to take a lot of pitches. In the past, Contreras’s high walk total was his Achilles heal- a weakness that has the potential to rear its ugly head once again today. He is also backed by a sub par bullpen that has been blowing a high rate of leads they have been coming into games with. It is also a bullpen that has gotten in a lot of work in the last week, and has struggled against this Mariners lineup a few times already this season. The Mariners bats look as good now as they have all season, and have made solid contact the last few games(with the exception of one game).

Cons:
Betting on Hernandez when he is clearly showing signs of struggling and lacking confidence involves a lot of speculation and risk. Betting against Contreras when he is pitching the best he has ever pitched also involves its fair share of risk. The Mariners are one of the worst teams at trying to draw walks. If they go into this game with the same free swinging approach, they are writing off their best ability to win this game, as they are facing a pitcher that tees off free swinging lineups, and they are helped by a small zone. The small zone also might have its negative effects on Hernandez, as that’s the last thing you want when you are a struggling young pitcher. The White Sox are also one of the better lineups at making a pitcher work, and should better take advantage of Crawford’s tendencies. Hedging a Mariners bet with the over may be a wise decision.

Conclusion:
I am well aware of the risks the Mariners come with today. I also understand that they don’t have the greatest chance of winning this game. With that said, I do feel I am being more than compensated with the generous odds they are coming with today. This might be the last time you ever see Hernandez come with this price tag when going up against a pitcher that doesn’t warrant elite status.
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Indians @ A’s
Play: A’s +102
Comment:
Pros:
This is a vital game for both the A’s lineup and their starting pitcher. Sarloos is making a spot start today as he is filling in for the injured Loiza. However, this is more than a spot start, as this is also an opportunity for him to take the fifth spot in the rotation from here on out. Sarloos has had success against the Indians in limited action, and he is getting progressively better at forcing ground balls and limiting the amount of home runs he allows. This is a huge asset facing a team with home run ability spread throughout the lineup. Sarloos has also shown that he prefers pitching during day games, as his stats clearly indicate. He has been known to be a clutch pitcher, and this is a clutch opportunity with so much on the line. Like most road teams that are coming off a huge offensive performance, the Indians have shown the propensity to lay an egg the following game over the last couple of years. They will also be without one of their hottest hitters today, Martinez, who is getting the day off during a day game following a night game. Even with yesterday’s debacle, the A’s did a good job conserving their better bullpen pitchers for today’s game.

Johnson was one of the worst road pitchers in baseball last year, and he has never proven to be an effective pitcher away from his home crowd. Johnson also comes into today’s game with past struggles against the A’s and a few of their hitters. Johnson is also coming off his worst start of the season, where he allowed 12 hits in only 6 innings of work. He also appears to be getting progressively worse in each start, and is showing a tendency to allow a lot of pitchers across the plate. This does not bode well for the Indians, because their might not be another bullpen in baseball that has performed as poorly as the Indians pen has so far this season. This is a perfect spot for the A’s to put some runs on the board, and avenge their embarrassing home loss to the Indians last night.

Cons:
The Indians come into this game with a much potent lineup, the momentum, and the more experienced pitcher. The Indians have one of the streakiest lineups in baseball, and they appear to be in one of their hot streaks right now. There is a lot of pressure on Sarloos in this game, as he is pitching in front of a home crowd, against a potent lineup, and after an embarrassing loss. He is also pitching for a starting role which might make him vulnerable to over pitching. Don’t be surprised if the Indians jump on him early before he settles down. When Johnson is on, he could eat up a lot of innings and avoid their suspect bullpen. The A’s aren’t known to score a lot of runs, so they are not the ideal team you want if this game gets into a slugfest.

Conclusion:
In my opinion, the A’s are still one of the best teams in baseball. Getting them as a home dog against one of the worst road pitchers in baseball is a bargain in my opinion. Good value on the home team, as the public has once again jumped on an offensive powerhouse that is coming off an impressive game.
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Good writeup's buffet, I hope they cash.

I am on the other side on both games so I guess one of us will win. I sure hope it is me however I do enjoy your write ups and as always wish you the very best of luck!

Best of luck BG...

Looking forward to your evening selections.

Yankees @ Devil Rays
Play: Yankees -250
Comment:
Pros:
Very seldom will I recommend a team that carries such a price tag. The break even percentage on these games is over 70%, so deriving a profit on these bets in the long run is not the most ideal approach to take. However, betting them in spots and diversifying them with smaller favorites and underdogs allows them to warrant a play every now and then.

I am not going to go into too much detail to why the Yankees have big advantage today, because it’s pretty self explanatory with the line the bookmakers have put forth. With that said, this is an ideal game for Johnson to bounce back from his struggles last weekend against the Blue Jays. Since then, critics have been coming out of the woodwork, claiming Johnson is finished, and he no longer has the confidence and intimidation factor he once had. Last time I checked, Johnson is at his best when pitching angry, and has been dominant when on the mound with something to prove. He has also been one of the most dominant indoor pitchers ever, as his pitches are much harder to pick up in the dome. Although he has struggled against the Devil Rays in the past, his stats in Tropicana are solid. His demise last week was his lack of control and high walk total. However, Johnson rarely possesses this deficiency two starts in a row, and faces a lineup that lacks patience and isn’t accustomed to drawing walks. His stats this year may a bit misleading as the only team he has struggled against has been the Blue Jays, who happens to be the best hitting team against left handed pitching in baseball. The Devil Rays appear to be lacking the confidence they were playing with a couple of weeks ago, and their injuries to their top players are really starting to show. This is a perfect start for Johnson to bounce back.

Last night was a wake up call for the Yankees bats, as their failure to produce any runs was almost their demise once again. Today they get a chance to showcase that they have the best lineup in baseball against a pitcher that they hit well last year. There are several hitters in today’s lineup that have had success against Wacheter in the past. This includes Damon, a new addition to their lineup. Waecheter also has the tendency to struggle against lineups that take a lot of pitches, as his weakness is his lack of control. The Yankees are the best team in baseball at drawing walks, so this leads me to believe Waecheter may struggle once again. He also accumulates a high pitch count early in games, and rarely goes deep into games. This does not bode well for the Rays, as their bullpen has been very overworked in the last week, and are one of the worst bullpens to start with.

The Yankees are also less prone to overlooking the Devil Rays as they have done in the past. They are quickly losing ground to the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and have yet proven capable of wining on the road.

Cons:
The price doesn’t generate the most attractive risk/reward opportunity in the world. Johnson has not looked the same this year and has had problems with the Devil Rays in the past. The Devil Rays have also been hitting left handers better this year, and have been prone to play their best baseball when facing the Yankees. The Yankees lineup seems to be sleepwalking right now, and they are lacking clutch hitting. It seems like they are finding ways not to score.

Conclusion:
This is one of the few games that you will see me betting at this price. I think a motivated Johnson and Yankees lineup takes it to an inferior Devil Rays starter and their injured lineup. I will include them in a diversified card today.<!-- / message -->

Reds @ Rockies
Play: Reds -121
Comment:
Pros:
Fogg should have his hands full tonight as he starts the game with an uphill battle his counterpart is less prone to facing. First of all, the wind is blowing out, giving a fly ball hitting team and finesse pitcher problems. Fogg also likes to corner pitcher, and won’t be helped out by the small strike zone Reily brings to the table. Fogg seems to be getting progressively worse and often struggles against the better lineups in the league. He has been helped out with facing four anemic lineups in his first five starts, but the trend ends today, as he faces one of the most surprising lineups in baseball so far this season. The Reds have also shown the propensity to be patient at the plate and draw walks. This is also a huge advantage today, as Fogg is a location pitcher that tries to make you swing outside the zone. This is also good news due to the BHP strike zone, wind and ballpark dimensions making a pitcher potentially pay for his walks. This is a good spot for this young Reds lineup to bounce back from embarrassingly being goose egged at Coors yesterday.

Harang is a hit or miss pitcher that is more dependent on whether he has his stuff that particular day, and not as dependent on where or who he pitches against. This is an asset when pitching at Coors. He also is a power pitcher that challenges hitters and goes for the strike out. This is also favorable in today’s game, as he is less dependent on the strike zone, and less prone to get taken advantage of by the thin air and wind. Harang is coming off two solid starts against two above average lineups. He now faces a lineup that has been struggling in the last week, and appears to be coming back to earth after this early season hitting tear. They are also a lineup that is clearly showing they miss their leader Helton in the lineup, and are also a lineup prone to being overpowered with Harang’s characteristics. Harang also comes into this game backed by a bullpen that seems to be pitching better than they were expected to pitch.

Cons:
Laying basis points on an overachieving team playing in Coors is not the most compelling bet in the world. Harang is a hit or miss pitcher. If he doesn’t come in with his best stuff, he will make this bet turn sour really quick. He also rarely puts in 3 good starts in a row, and has struggled in Coors in the past. When he doesn’t have his “A” game, he tends to leave pitches up. This is not something you want pitching in Coors with the wind blowing out. Fogg improved his sinker ball a lot in the off season. This is a huge asset when pitching in this ballpark. He has also pitched well in this ballpark in the past, and has had success against several Reds hitters in today’s lineup. The Reds lineup also seems to finally be coming back down to earth, as they have struggled at the plate the last couple of games.

Conclusion:
At this price I am going to take my chances on Harang, and hope he comes in with his good pitching capabilities. With the Reds you are getting the superior pitcher, the better lineup, and favorable intangibles that the thin air, wind, and home plate umpire bring to this game.