I will be up with the late game plays later this afternoon. For now, I am going with 2 dogs that posses a lot of value in the early games. Hopefully I could hit at least one.
Mariners @ White Sox
Play: Mariners +154
Comment:
Pros:
I am well aware of how well Contreras has been pitching, and how well the White Sox have been playing the last couple of weeks. However, you just can’t give a pitcher like Hernandez combined with a lineup like the Mariners these kinds of odds. For this reason, I have no problem fading the hottest team and pitcher in baseball.
Hernandez still has yet to pitch to his potential this year. He is coming off a start where he struggled to hit his location early in the game, and was forced to work himself out of a lot of jams. With that said, it’s just a matter of time until he resembles the pitcher he was last year. The new theory for his early season woes is that Hernandez has been tipping his pitches, allowing hitters to know what kind of pitch is coming. In between starts, Hernandez once again worked on his mechanics, and his pitching coach claims he shouldn’t be tipping his pitches from here on out. Whether it’s true or not, I like Hernandez’s chances today, as the White Sox have often times struggled against power pitchers like Hernandez. Lineups that highly depend on manufacturing runs often times struggle against strikeout pitchers, as situational hitting is often times hard to execute. The White Sox also may be without Dye, a huge asset in the middle of their lineup. I also have a feeling the Mariners will allow Putz to get the potential save, which means an automatic blown save is not in the cards for the Mariners today.
Contreras might be the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the last 20 starts. With that said, I don’t think it’s sustainable. First off all, he has yet to be tested against a lineup that fundamentally matches up well with him. Secondly, Contreras is a pitcher that tries to throw as little strikes as possible. This doesn’t not bode well for him today, as home plate up Crawford is notorious for his small zone, which forces lineups to take a lot of pitches. In the past, Contreras’s high walk total was his Achilles heal- a weakness that has the potential to rear its ugly head once again today. He is also backed by a sub par bullpen that has been blowing a high rate of leads they have been coming into games with. It is also a bullpen that has gotten in a lot of work in the last week, and has struggled against this Mariners lineup a few times already this season. The Mariners bats look as good now as they have all season, and have made solid contact the last few games(with the exception of one game).
Cons:
Betting on Hernandez when he is clearly showing signs of struggling and lacking confidence involves a lot of speculation and risk. Betting against Contreras when he is pitching the best he has ever pitched also involves its fair share of risk. The Mariners are one of the worst teams at trying to draw walks. If they go into this game with the same free swinging approach, they are writing off their best ability to win this game, as they are facing a pitcher that tees off free swinging lineups, and they are helped by a small zone. The small zone also might have its negative effects on Hernandez, as that’s the last thing you want when you are a struggling young pitcher. The White Sox are also one of the better lineups at making a pitcher work, and should better take advantage of Crawford’s tendencies. Hedging a Mariners bet with the over may be a wise decision.
Conclusion:
I am well aware of the risks the Mariners come with today. I also understand that they don’t have the greatest chance of winning this game. With that said, I do feel I am being more than compensated with the generous odds they are coming with today. This might be the last time you ever see Hernandez come with this price tag when going up against a pitcher that doesn’t warrant elite status.
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Mariners @ White Sox
Play: Mariners +154
Comment:
Pros:
I am well aware of how well Contreras has been pitching, and how well the White Sox have been playing the last couple of weeks. However, you just can’t give a pitcher like Hernandez combined with a lineup like the Mariners these kinds of odds. For this reason, I have no problem fading the hottest team and pitcher in baseball.
Hernandez still has yet to pitch to his potential this year. He is coming off a start where he struggled to hit his location early in the game, and was forced to work himself out of a lot of jams. With that said, it’s just a matter of time until he resembles the pitcher he was last year. The new theory for his early season woes is that Hernandez has been tipping his pitches, allowing hitters to know what kind of pitch is coming. In between starts, Hernandez once again worked on his mechanics, and his pitching coach claims he shouldn’t be tipping his pitches from here on out. Whether it’s true or not, I like Hernandez’s chances today, as the White Sox have often times struggled against power pitchers like Hernandez. Lineups that highly depend on manufacturing runs often times struggle against strikeout pitchers, as situational hitting is often times hard to execute. The White Sox also may be without Dye, a huge asset in the middle of their lineup. I also have a feeling the Mariners will allow Putz to get the potential save, which means an automatic blown save is not in the cards for the Mariners today.
Contreras might be the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the last 20 starts. With that said, I don’t think it’s sustainable. First off all, he has yet to be tested against a lineup that fundamentally matches up well with him. Secondly, Contreras is a pitcher that tries to throw as little strikes as possible. This doesn’t not bode well for him today, as home plate up Crawford is notorious for his small zone, which forces lineups to take a lot of pitches. In the past, Contreras’s high walk total was his Achilles heal- a weakness that has the potential to rear its ugly head once again today. He is also backed by a sub par bullpen that has been blowing a high rate of leads they have been coming into games with. It is also a bullpen that has gotten in a lot of work in the last week, and has struggled against this Mariners lineup a few times already this season. The Mariners bats look as good now as they have all season, and have made solid contact the last few games(with the exception of one game).
Cons:
Betting on Hernandez when he is clearly showing signs of struggling and lacking confidence involves a lot of speculation and risk. Betting against Contreras when he is pitching the best he has ever pitched also involves its fair share of risk. The Mariners are one of the worst teams at trying to draw walks. If they go into this game with the same free swinging approach, they are writing off their best ability to win this game, as they are facing a pitcher that tees off free swinging lineups, and they are helped by a small zone. The small zone also might have its negative effects on Hernandez, as that’s the last thing you want when you are a struggling young pitcher. The White Sox are also one of the better lineups at making a pitcher work, and should better take advantage of Crawford’s tendencies. Hedging a Mariners bet with the over may be a wise decision.
Conclusion:
I am well aware of the risks the Mariners come with today. I also understand that they don’t have the greatest chance of winning this game. With that said, I do feel I am being more than compensated with the generous odds they are coming with today. This might be the last time you ever see Hernandez come with this price tag when going up against a pitcher that doesn’t warrant elite status.
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