Huge Team Total Play Tonight

Sekrah · May 4, 2006

Phillies TT Over 4.5 Runs +107 against Atlanta Braves.

John Thomson pitching over his head early in the year. He's escaped out of numerous dicey situations from walking too many batters.. He's been effective vs lefties (0.96 WHIP, .132 BAA) but righties have hit him up (1.50 WHIP, .310 BAA).

Thomson has pitched poorly away from home (1.76 WHIP, .294 BAA).

One outing last season at Citizens Bank, He gave up 8 H, 4 ER in 4 IP (7.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .364 BAA).

vs David Bell 7 for 24 (.292 BAA)
vs Pat Burrell 8 for 19, 2 HR, 5 BB (.421 BAA, 1.384 OPS)
vs Jimmy Rollins 10 for 31, (.324 BAA, 1.333 OPS)
vs Aaron Rowand 2 for 3,
vs Ryan Howard 2 for 4, 1 HR

Atlanta bullpen still shaky.

Weather Conditions: WSW 10 mph (Out to Right-Center)

Past Three Years with winds out to center or right field:

2006: 3 games, Average Phillies Run Score 6.00
2005: 9 games, Average Phillies Run Score 6.78
2004: 15 games, Average Phillies Run score 5.89

Air Pressure: 29.76 in and Falling (Approaching Coors Levels).
Humidity: <20%

Phillies score runs tonight!
:money8: :money8: :money8: :money8:

Sekrah · May 4, 2006

One more run and we cash this monster guys!!

fhmesq44 · May 4, 2006

nice call on this.

Sekrah · May 4, 2006

Don't jinx me.. it's not in yet!. I've lost plenty of team totals by coming up 1/2 run short halfway through the game.

Sekrah · May 4, 2006

There it is! Hope some of you guys played this one!

Sekrah · May 5, 2006

i'm beginning to regain some confidence on these and feeling sharp about my handicapping right now.

Don't be surprised if I go on a run here over the next few weeks. A couple of weeks off after a poor run is usually the recipe that has worked in the past..

Let's start seeing green!

:money:

Dubpoet · May 5, 2006

For Philly and our sweet hitting but still unachieving line up, One thing to note.

When it really gets hot here the ball just flys out of the park. Maybe more than any park in MLB. It has not even got close to hot yet. Philly home totals and team totals are still set pretty low considering our terrible pitching and slow start. I will try to post the onset of 90 + heat and humidity when it happens. There will be a good week or two when the totals are way too low in philly and it will be time to pound it.

Sekrah · May 5, 2006

Dubpoet.. The barometric pressure is a seemingly odd, but a very important variable in the total runs scored in a baseball game. Less friction=Less Break It only takes a breaking ball to be off a fraction of an inch to get belted into the gaps or out of the park The air in Philadelphia tonight (29.65-29.70 ahead of the cold front) was actually lighter than the air in Coors was tonight (30.05 tonight, typically 29.5-29.6). As you pointed out, Heat+Humidity makes the air lighter as well. 98% of the betting public doesn't have a clue about this.

The total of 11.5 set on the Colorado/Cincinnati game tonight was a complete farce. That was not your Coors Field tonight, and anytime Citizens Bank drops down into the 29.60's, it's as good as Coors (if not better because it's very reachable.). It seemed like everything was jumping off the bat.

Dubpoet · May 5, 2006

For Pressure is there a good site and whats the average pressure to compare. thanks.

Sekrah · May 5, 2006

From my personal research, I believe every 0.20 difference in air pressure is worth 1 run in the game on average 30.00 is pretty average for most parks, Coors obviously one of the lower ones, averages around 29.60. The books are right on the money with my 0.20 theory as the Rockies totals are typically set 2 runs higher than most other games. Citizens Bank played like Coors tonight and there was no adjustment from the books (probably because NOBODY notices stuff like this).

www.weatherunderground.com has archived weather numbers going back forever and is a good source if you want to start some research.

Obviously, you can have 1-0 shutouts in 29.70 inches of pressure, and 11-10 shootouts at 30.30 inches. There's hundreds of factors that go into the outcome of a game. This is far from the holy grail of handicapping discoveries. But I do believe that it's a factor that can take a handicapper's 55% win percentage to 57% by just noticing these oddities. I personally would NEVER play the Rockies Over 11.5 runs (or whatever it's set at) when the pressure is above 30.00 inches and would lean to playing the under.

Just something that just gives you a little bit more edge that will improve your margins slightly.

Dubpoet · May 5, 2006

Well it would be interesting to see which pitchers and what kind of pitchers get hit most. I would think the 95+mph guys have the best chance unless the rely on splitters or a fastball that tails sideways or down.