I wouldn't play the over, thats for sure
Hatton cuts very easily and Collazo could get knocked out
I played Collazo +400 (very small) at Bet365 when it opened, here's what I posted at madjacks in response to a question about parlaying Hatton...
Collazo +400 is basically a value play, I noticed Bet365 had that big # while the other books were +300 or so.
As posted, I'm only playing it to win 1/2 unit so given the odds its hardly risking anything. Its a long shot bet but here's why I think it could win...
Collazo has always fought at 147, Hatton is stepping up from 140 for the first time even though he admits he can make 140 easily. So he's stepping out of his natural weight and fighting a slick, skilled, southpaw who is 3" taller and 7" longer. Collazo is also a King fighter, that always helps. If he's in excellent shape and can keep up the lateral movement for 12 rounds (like Freitas did to Corrales for 8 rounds) he could make it very difficult for Hatton to get inside. This is Hatton's first fight in the US, you never know how that will effect him, esp combined with the new weight and the southpaw opponent.
However
Hatton is a wildman who comes forward constantly throwing big shots to the head and to the body, every now and then Collazo's back will hit the ropes and he will have to trade. Hatton may be the smaller guy, but he's the stronger of the two and he hits harder than Collazo.
Inside...big advantage for Hatton
Outside...big advantage for Collazo
The question is...how long can Collazo keep Hatton off him, and can he take the heat when its time to trade
There's two X factors here...
1) Hatton is promoted by Fight Acadamy and Banner promotions, they are promoting this event and will be signing the checks, not Don King. As was discussed two weeks ago, Banner promotions has a history of getting what they want. For example Freitas is a Banner guy and he got all the close rounds against Raheem.
This could be a big advantage for Hatton
2) Hatton has a long history of cutting in fights, usually early. I layed the heavy wood on Ricky (-700) against that joke Maussa. I think it was the first round that I started sh*tting bricks when a Maussa haymaker opened up a cut over Hatton's eye. Luckily they got it under control and Hatton sealed the deal, but I sure didn't like my odds when the blood started to flow. Anyway, Collazo is a southpaw which increases the odds of a headbutt. Collazo also throws quik, sharp punches, very accurate, it wouldn't surprise me if he opened a cut early by targeting the scar tissue.
In summary...
I think you did a wise thing in parlaying Hatton, hopefully you're getting close to even money, in that case...let it ride.
I wouldn't recommend a straight bet on Hatton
gl bl
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Hatton cuts very easily and Collazo could get knocked out
I played Collazo +400 (very small) at Bet365 when it opened, here's what I posted at madjacks in response to a question about parlaying Hatton...
Collazo +400 is basically a value play, I noticed Bet365 had that big # while the other books were +300 or so.
As posted, I'm only playing it to win 1/2 unit so given the odds its hardly risking anything. Its a long shot bet but here's why I think it could win...
Collazo has always fought at 147, Hatton is stepping up from 140 for the first time even though he admits he can make 140 easily. So he's stepping out of his natural weight and fighting a slick, skilled, southpaw who is 3" taller and 7" longer. Collazo is also a King fighter, that always helps. If he's in excellent shape and can keep up the lateral movement for 12 rounds (like Freitas did to Corrales for 8 rounds) he could make it very difficult for Hatton to get inside. This is Hatton's first fight in the US, you never know how that will effect him, esp combined with the new weight and the southpaw opponent.
However
Hatton is a wildman who comes forward constantly throwing big shots to the head and to the body, every now and then Collazo's back will hit the ropes and he will have to trade. Hatton may be the smaller guy, but he's the stronger of the two and he hits harder than Collazo.
Inside...big advantage for Hatton
Outside...big advantage for Collazo
The question is...how long can Collazo keep Hatton off him, and can he take the heat when its time to trade
There's two X factors here...
1) Hatton is promoted by Fight Acadamy and Banner promotions, they are promoting this event and will be signing the checks, not Don King. As was discussed two weeks ago, Banner promotions has a history of getting what they want. For example Freitas is a Banner guy and he got all the close rounds against Raheem.
This could be a big advantage for Hatton
2) Hatton has a long history of cutting in fights, usually early. I layed the heavy wood on Ricky (-700) against that joke Maussa. I think it was the first round that I started sh*tting bricks when a Maussa haymaker opened up a cut over Hatton's eye. Luckily they got it under control and Hatton sealed the deal, but I sure didn't like my odds when the blood started to flow. Anyway, Collazo is a southpaw which increases the odds of a headbutt. Collazo also throws quik, sharp punches, very accurate, it wouldn't surprise me if he opened a cut early by targeting the scar tissue.
In summary...
I think you did a wise thing in parlaying Hatton, hopefully you're getting close to even money, in that case...let it ride.
I wouldn't recommend a straight bet on Hatton
gl bl
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After posting that, I was informed that Hatton has fought in the US, here's my response...
You're right geto, Hatton has fought in the US three times...97' 98' 00'...I should've checked before making that assumption. Either way, its been 6 years since his last trip and the level of competition is much different this time around. Hatton has gotten very comfortable having fought almost 20 straight fights in England since coming here.
The same guy thought I might be wrong about who is the naturally bigger guy in this fight, I responded with...
IMO Hatton would only be naturally bigger if Collazo could make 140 but has chosen not to his entire career, and I'm not so sure of that. The excess weight that Hatton puts on between fights just reflects his lifestyle and lack of training between fights. If Hatton can make 140 easily, then that is his natural weight. Maybe Collazo could make 140 but doesn't want to...who knows.
gl bl
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You're right geto, Hatton has fought in the US three times...97' 98' 00'...I should've checked before making that assumption. Either way, its been 6 years since his last trip and the level of competition is much different this time around. Hatton has gotten very comfortable having fought almost 20 straight fights in England since coming here.
The same guy thought I might be wrong about who is the naturally bigger guy in this fight, I responded with...
IMO Hatton would only be naturally bigger if Collazo could make 140 but has chosen not to his entire career, and I'm not so sure of that. The excess weight that Hatton puts on between fights just reflects his lifestyle and lack of training between fights. If Hatton can make 140 easily, then that is his natural weight. Maybe Collazo could make 140 but doesn't want to...who knows.
gl bl
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Luis is slick in a lot of ways but he is also stationary with his feet and is there to be hit more than some people would think. Despite his recent success it's hard for me to shake the image of Luis getting dropped and stopped by Cassiani on ShoBox 3 years ago. I also think Rivera beat Collazo. Hatton wants to look good for the yanks, and I think he will. I like him BIG!
Floyd would murder Hatton if they fought, I was 98% sure before seeing this fight, now I'm 100%. Looks like Collazo took his heart by nailing him in the earlier rounds and Ricky's fighting like he doesn't want to chance getting hit by letting his hands go. His new nickname is Ricky "Holdman" Hatton LOL
Did you guys see that dust cloud? That's Ricky Hatton running back to England with the WBC belt. He can't fight under real boxing rules and knows this now. He better move back down and use that homefield advantage he has in England. Every welterweight manager is on the phone with Fight Academy now!!! 
uppy:
uppy:go2guy said:Did you guys see that dust cloud? That's Ricky Hatton running back to England with the WBC belt. He can't fight under real boxing rules and knows this now. He better move back down and use that homefield advantage he has in England. Every welterweight manager is on the phone with Fight Academy now!!!
HHAHAHHAHAHHAHA
