Saturday's MLB... and boxing, horses, buckets...

CollegeKingRex · May 6, 2006

Not a lot of time for the writeup today, as it's Derby Day and I'm not sitting in front of a computer when there are horses to bet.

There are a couple of club plays. I passed on Sy's TOR OVER, good money I respect on other side and Lilly has been running decent and has a 3.33 ERA in his career vs. ANA.

Also passed on MIN OVER (another SY), same reason as earlier, good opposition bet the other side.

Philly OVER looks like stealing. Gibson and his 59.7 strike percentage will be calling it (5-1, 12.33 rpg) Wright gave up 10 hits and 8 ER on Monday and he's winless in his last 3. He's 3-5 and has a 6.63 ERA in Philly. Madson has now given up 18 ER in his last 3 starts, going just 11 1/3 innings. Pressure is now on him as he needs a good start to ensure staying in the rotation. Not gonna happen.

The play: SFO/PHI OVER 10 -115 - 565 to win 500

Colorado gets Culbreth and his 64.3 percentage (close to a club member) behind the dish. Wandy Rodriguez has allowed just 5 ER in his last 26 innings with 20K and 7 BB. Jennings pitched by far his best game of the year last time in Atlanta, just was a victim of Hudson's one-hitter (Jennings got the only COL hit). His sinker and a four-seam fastball that operated like a cutter were both working last time as he held Atlanta to just five singles. I expect this one to stay well under the posted total.

The play: COL UNDER 11 -119 - 595 to win 500

Taking a stab at UNDER on the south side. Runelvys was solid against Detroit the last time out and had good stuff throughout. His conditioning doesn't seem to be an issue at this point. Vazquez did not allow an ER in six innings Monday at Cleveland, fanning seven and getting his third win of the year. He took a no-hitter into the seventh in his last start vs. KC. He has struck out 14 in 15 IP vs. KC this season, with a 1-0 record and 1.20 ERA. Gorman and his inordinate 65.1 strike percentage will be ringing hitters up right and left with these 2 starters.

The play: UNDER 8 -110 - 440 to win 400

Lean to Seattle UNDER later but I like these 3 best.

Also on the Suns -5 -117 for 500, and the UNDER in the Mayorga-De la Hoya fight. The Golden Boy is a much better boxer and I expect Mayorga to come after him early and leave himself exposed. There will be a knockout.

As far as the Derby goes... here are my horse plays from here on out.

Churchill 6 - Using the 9 on top of the 2-3-4. Beholden making her stakes debut for the Hardy barn. $700K purchase is about seven times the avg of a Cat Thief offspring, and she was a game winner in the Gulfstream mile allowance and appears to be sitting on a big race here. Is 9-to-1 as I speak, 15 minutes to post.

Back with the others shortly...

:thumbsup2:

CollegeKingRex · May 6, 2006

4-2-3 in the 6th paid $168.60. Exacta paid a tidy $54. I'm sure it won't be that easy all day, lol... Too bad my big bets had the 9 on top of the other 3 so I didn't clean house by any means, got back a little from what I lost in the first five races.

Churchill 7 - The '2' is going to be hard to beat. But I'm gonna try to anyways, with the 1, Lock and Key. Ben Cecil is a sharp turf trainer and the price is fair. She's been unlucky to lose her last 2 but a repeat of either effort should get the job done today. Using the 1 with the 2, 7 and 8 underneath (and reversed on a smaller ticket)... Singling the 1 in my pick-4

Churchill 8 - The 7, Behaving Badly, will be hard to beat if the race sets up for her like I expect. She figures to get a relatively easy trip on the front end. One who could surprise is Atlas Valley, the 6. She should have the ability to lay in striking range early and she loves the CD surface. Using those 2 in my Pick-4. Also using 5 in Exactas and Tris.

Churchill 9 - I like English Channel the best in this one, the 9-horse. The 4-year old had an impressive debut in his first race of the year last time, beating the always-tough Miesque's Approval. That win gets him set up nicely for this race. If Einstein sets the pace for this one he moves up (not good to be the target in these long turf races)... This is a deep race and using 3-5-7-9-11 in the exotics but just the 3-9 in my Pick-4.

Churchill 10 - The Derby is as strong and deep as ever. Let's dismiss a lot of these horses. Brother Derek might win a 10-horse race but his running style, post position both work against him. Lawyer Ron doesn't fit the necessary speed qualification (I need to see a horse run 13 secs in the final 8th and 38 in the final 3/8ths or I throw them out). Barbaro has done nothing wrong, I just don't like him (the 5 week break is no good either).

I've liked Sweetnorthernsaint since the Illinois Derby and he's been the best horse since they chopped his nuts off. The knock? He's beaten suspect fields but there's no doubting this guy's talent. Just a real tough race to come up with the winner because many are capable. I used lots of these in my Pick-4. They include: Jazil, Point Determined, AP Warrior, Sweetnorthernsaint and Private Vow. The 1-5-10-11-12, and might add some stuff as it gets closer to post-time...