Choptalks SUNDAY BASEBALL 40-63 -$4426.00 -44.2 Units Ytd AWFUL START(POSSIBLE GOY)

CHOPTALK · May 7, 2006

What a bad season so far. Dont know whats wrong with me right now. At least im not afraid to post my record when im down. At least I dont change my posting name and come back with a fresh start. At least I dont lie about my record. Thats just a few things that would be nice to remember before bashing my poor start. No need to kick the dead horse. No one hurts worse than me about this start. Having to dig deep these last few weeks. Had to take out my entire bankroll last SEPTEMBER because of hurricane expenses and start from scratch after years of building and building without any withdrawls. I have had to go well over my 5% rule the last week. As a matter of fact, if I dont get hot soon im going to have to be a $100 a game player. Its not that drastic yet but getting pretty damm close. Wish me luck. Maybe part of my problem is im betting with scared money. When in the past I was using just a fraction of my bankroll, now I have to use alot more and its forcing me to play without the comfort of knowing that short term losing is no big deal. I have had the luxery of a very nice bankroll the last few years that is no longer there. Its time to put up a run or I am going to have to lower my unit size to $50 a unit.

2) ARIZONA -126 $252 for $200
2) LAA -125 $250 for $200

I said I have a game of the year. I was not around when the line first came out. According to some, the Braves were plus money and then the game was quickly pulled. If this is the case and thats what the line is im pounding the BRAVES for 5 units and It will probably stand for the rest of the season as my GOY. I have a real hard time believing that, thats what the line is going to be though. If its BRAVES -130 or less its a 5 UNIT PLAY.

I have had one sorry season to date, but I mixed in with all those massive losses for the season so far I did manage to hit my GOM last month.

That makes me 6-0 all-time at this forum on GOM plays. 5-0 last season and 1-0 this year. Im 2-0 on GOY plays. That makes my total record on huge games 8-0 at this forum. Last season my GOY was on the METS and it looks like this season it will be against the Mets if that line is anywhere near what its rumored to be. MATCHBOOK does not even have a line on this game. Dont know what the holdup is on this one.

GOOD LUCK followers, for you faders out there and I know there are more than a few :lolBIG: , you have made plenty of money off me the last few weeks, please dont be greedy and let the non faders win a few.

I repeat one more time. This BRAVES game is not a play yet. Only if rumers are true.

GOOD LUCK

teazeman · May 7, 2006

let me wish you luck chop, you have maintained class and dignity thru you bad run and i respect you for that, i know we are all pulling for you and i think you sweep the board sunday and begin your run.

PokerKingJim · May 7, 2006

Im on the Angels as well. Best of luck :toast:

PO69 · May 7, 2006

I would watch out for

JOSE LIMA!!!

He will pitch for the Mets tomorrow. You never really know what you will get from LIMA, but you may get LIMA TIME!!!! The Braves cant beat their dead grandmothers lately! Not a strong pick for a game of the year in my expert opinion!

Roxygurl · May 7, 2006

wowsers chop,you have NOTHING to apologize for.youve proven yourself thru the test of time and your place with the greats of this business is secure. i didnt know you were affected by katrina.my heart goes out to you. all sports are cyclical just as all things in life are. this is a down cycle in bases so just be aware i guess.hang in there chop,you survived the most horrific disaster this countrys ever endured and youll get thru this.

CHOPTALK · May 7, 2006

Thanks guys. Just did some rechecking and I dont see any mention of any kind of pitching change. Its Smoltz vs Lima according to all reports. I do believe Andrew Jones is playing, cant think of a real reason for the holdup.

Before anyone ask, this game has nothing to do with due factor and is not a pure Josa Lima fade. Although Lima starting sure does not hurt our cause. My personal line on this game is Atlanta -180 with JONES and -160 without JONES. If the line falls anything below -130(WHICH I STILL DOUBT) its GOY material.

I think John Smoltz is the best day game pitcher in all of baseball. He is also a great stopper. He is pitching on short rest because SOSA had to pitch out of the pen the other day but Smoltz should not be too affected because of that. Smoltz does better against the good teams than the bad teams. This has always been the case with him. He always seems to struggle against the Washingtons of the world be knows how to bring it when the team needs him most. There is not other pitcher that is better in this situation the JS.

We all know the LIMA story. The Braves have owned him over the years almost like just about every other team in the league.

Lima in the minors this season has an ERA over 5.00. No reason to think he has changed any from the past.

CHOPTALK · May 7, 2006

Roxygurl said:
wowsers chop,you have NOTHING to apologize for.youve proven yourself thru the test of time and your place with the greats of this business is secure. i didnt know you were affected by katrina.my heart goes out to you. all sports are cyclical just as all things in life are. this is a down cycle in bases so just be aware i guess.hang in there chop,you survived the most horrific disaster this countrys ever endured and youll get thru this.

Katrina hit to the east of me and Rita hit to the west of me. 60 more miles west for Katrina or 50 more miles east for Rita and I would have been in a world of hurt.

I did not suffer massive damage to my house, All I had was a little roof damage.

The main thing that affected me was I work out of Venice Louisiana were the damage was 10 worse than it was in New Orleans. I did not go to work for 10 weeks.

I dont keep much money over and above normal living expenses in my checking account so I had 3 choices. Retirement funds, Savings, or sportsbook accounts.

The choice was easy. Never ever use important money when it comes to gambling no matter what. If you do, you have a really bad problem.

I started winning about 8 years ago. I started with a $3000 BR and built it over a long period of time. I had very long range plans. Started out as a $40 to $50 dollar player and worked myself up to what you see me posting here at this forum. It was a very sad day when I had to erase years of what I had been building, and to tell you the truth, I have been betting a higher % this year then I have in years, since learning the value of MM.

If there was ever a year I needed to come out of the gates strong, this was the one.

One of the things that saved me was I pulled out more money than I needed and was able to put a decent sum of money back into the sportsbooks. I also had a pretty decent year in CBB betting very selective games and following ACE-ACE and also picked up almost 20 unit during spring training. Time to get hot or I will be greatly reducing my bet size.

Not going to re-up with my own money. THAT AINT GOING TO HAPPEN EVER!!!!!!!

SKDiablo · May 7, 2006

thanks for sharing your picks chop, and as always, keep at it.

xxxFTWxxx · May 7, 2006

CHOPTALK said:
Thanks guys. Just did some rechecking and I dont see any mention of any kind of pitching change. Its Smoltz vs Lima according to all reports. I do believe Andrew Jones is playing, cant think of a real reason for the holdup.

Before anyone ask, this game has nothing to do with due factor and is not a pure Josa Lima fade. Although Lima starting sure does not hurt our cause. My personal line on this game is Atlanta -180 with JONES and -160 without JONES. If the line falls anything below -130(WHICH I STILL DOUBT) its GOY material.

I think John Smoltz is the best day game pitcher in all of baseball. He is also a great stopper. He is pitching on short rest because SOSA had to pitch out of the pen the other day but Smoltz should not be too affected because of that. Smoltz does better against the good teams than the bad teams. This has always been the case with him. He always seems to struggle against the Washingtons of the world be knows how to bring it when the team needs him most. There is not other pitcher that is better in this situation the JS.

We all know the LIMA story. The Braves have owned him over the years almost like just about every other team in the league.

Lima in the minors this season has an ERA over 5.00. No reason to think he has changed any from the past.

There is no way the line should be -180 for the Braves IN SHEA STADIUM if Cy Young himself was pitching for them.

Give me a break.. Mets are on a tear this year and they would love to do nothing more then sweep the Braves to put even more distance between themselves and the Braves. Yea Smoltz is good, but Mets are playing as a better team right now and at home.

I don't see how you can do anything but Mets or nothing right now.. let alone go against the Mets as your GOY.

I will most likely play the Mets as a 1 unit play as a home dog as they have made me a lot of money this year so it won't hurt me win or lose. This isn't the past though.. Braves do not have the Mets number anymore.

CHOPTALK · May 7, 2006

playersonly69 said:
I would watch out for

JOSE LIMA!!!

He will pitch for the Mets tomorrow. You never really know what you will get from LIMA, but you may get LIMA TIME!!!! The Braves cant beat their dead grandmothers lately! Not a strong pick for a game of the year in my expert opinion!

What has he ever done to scare you?

He had one great season in Houston about 8 years ago, and 1/2 a decent season in KC about 3 years ago. Other than that hes been batting practice his entire career.

CHOPTALK · May 7, 2006

xxxFTWxxx said:
There is no way the line should be -180 for the Braves IN SHEA STADIUM if Cy Young himself was pitching for them.

Give me a break.. Mets are on a tear this year and they would love to do nothing more then sweep the Braves to put even more distance between themselves and the Braves. Yea Smoltz is good, but Mets are playing as a better team right now and at home.

I don't see how you can do anything but Mets or nothing right now.. let alone go against the Mets as your GOY.

I will most likely play the Mets as a 1 unit play as a home dog as they have made me a lot of money this year so it won't hurt me win or lose. This isn't the past though.. Braves do not have the Mets number anymore.

You are entitled to your opionion.

I remember everyone telling me how dumb I was last season when the METS were my GOY last season against the Yankees.

What do you think the line will be. I still think the line is going to be Braves pretty heavy. There is a decent chance that this will only be a normal play tommorow. Cant believe for 1 second that the Braves could be even close to a dog in this contest.

PO69 · May 7, 2006

Agree TOTALLY with xxxFTWxxx! Maybe Chop is smoking something tonight! He may not realize that this is an AWAY game for the Braves. EVEN in Atlanta the line with the same pitchers would not be at -180!!!

Mets are hotter than they have been in a LONG time and Atlanta is nothing but a middle of the road team in the National Leage now! I wouldnt be supised to see Atlanta lose this one by 3 runs or so. Now I am not betting huge on the Mets in this spot, but I cannot see how someone could make the Braves a play of the year! I am betting other games today, but I may bet around $950 straight on the Mets tomorrow. I may take them at the reverse runline which should be at about -1.5 and +240 or so

PO69 · May 7, 2006

Well you do have one thing going for you, the Mets will be a HUGEEE public play tomorrow. But then again, the public usually does pretty well in baseball

xxxFTWxxx · May 7, 2006

CHOPTALK said:
You are entitled to your opionion.

I remember everyone telling me how dumb I was last season when the METS were my GOY last season against the Yankees.

What do you think the line will be. I still think the line is going to be Braves pretty heavy. There is a decent chance that this will only be a normal play tommorow. Cant believe for 1 second that the Braves could be even close to a dog in this contest.

I don't know.. I am waiting just like you are to see what the line is. I know it won't be -180 though... or I might have to make the Mets my GOY, lol.

I think maybe -125 at the most for the Braves. Maybe -115

xxxFTWxxx · May 7, 2006

playersonly69 said:
Well you do have one thing going for you, the Mets will be a HUGEEE public play tomorrow. But then again, the public usually does pretty well in baseball

I doubt it.. I can see a lot of public being on the Braves looking at Starting pitching alone and the fact that Braves are in a "must win" trying to avoid the sweep.

CHOPTALK · May 7, 2006

xxxFTWxxx said:
I don't know.. I am waiting just like you are to see what the line is. I know it won't be -180 though... or I might have to make the Mets my GOY, lol.

I think maybe -125 at the most for the Braves. Maybe -115

I never expected the sportsbooks line to be -180. I said early yesterday in my thread that I anticipate the BRAVES being my GOY tommorow because I knew there would be a huge difference in my line and the sportsbooks line.

My thoughts were the line would be somewhere around where you are saying but I poster came into my thread yesterday saying that OLYMPIC put out a brief line making the Braves +115 or so. That was what was shocking to me. I knew the myline would be much different than what the sportsbooks put out, I just did not think it would be that much different.

I expect the line to be about what you think it will be. More than enough to play 5 units. Anything below -130 is music to my ears.

xxxFTWxxx · May 7, 2006

Well goodluck.. I tried to talk you out of it, guess thats all I can do.

CHOPTALK · May 7, 2006

playersonly69 said:
Well you do have one thing going for you, the Mets will be a HUGEEE public play tomorrow. But then again, the public usually does pretty well in baseball

The public does well % wise but not unit wise.

The people in baseball with the best winning % or usually the ones in the red taking huge moneyline favorites that win more than not but having negitive value which means that they may have a pretty YTD record but are hurting in the money department.

randolph · May 7, 2006

So Choptalk are you saying that if the Braves are -130 or less, it will be a 5-unit play which is considered a GOY for you? Is that correct?

CHOPTALK · May 7, 2006

randolph said:
So Choptalk are you saying that if the Braves are -130 or less, it will be a 5-unit play which is considered a GOY for you? Is that correct?

-130 or less is a 5 unit selection.

-131 and up is a normal play.

I think Braves -145 will be your number. That would be a 3 unit selection from me.

Choptalks SUNDAY BASEBALL 40-63 -$4426.00 -44.2 Units Ytd AWFUL START(POSSIBLE GOY)

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