ope:
I bet Barbaro for the Derby but winning the whole Triple Crown is another story. Yes, it could happen but the odds are against it.
First off, the Preakness is in two weeks. Tough for some horses to bounce back with another race two weeks later against the best. Add in that Brother Derek will be back and if he gets a better trip it will make him a major threat. Just think if Brother Derek breaks from post 8 and Barbaro goes from 18 or whatever, it could have been a completely different race. You never know what newcomers in the Preakness could make a threat as well.
Then the Belmont Stakes. Winning at a mile and a half takes something special. Prado is the guy you want aboard there and I think Barbaro would have a decent chance. I guess my conclusion is the Preakness could be tougher than the Belmont, but a lot can always go wrong in the Belmont also.
I'm not sure if I'll stick with Barbaro in the Preakness or not. Odds will be much lower on him there - depends on who else is in it and how everything looks come raceday.
First off, the Preakness is in two weeks. Tough for some horses to bounce back with another race two weeks later against the best. Add in that Brother Derek will be back and if he gets a better trip it will make him a major threat. Just think if Brother Derek breaks from post 8 and Barbaro goes from 18 or whatever, it could have been a completely different race. You never know what newcomers in the Preakness could make a threat as well.
Then the Belmont Stakes. Winning at a mile and a half takes something special. Prado is the guy you want aboard there and I think Barbaro would have a decent chance. I guess my conclusion is the Preakness could be tougher than the Belmont, but a lot can always go wrong in the Belmont also.
I'm not sure if I'll stick with Barbaro in the Preakness or not. Odds will be much lower on him there - depends on who else is in it and how everything looks come raceday.
Hi guys....NOP he will not......one of these expected favorite at the Kentucky Derby will show his nose within the next two races....and by the way I think the line for NO should be way higher than it is now...at least -400....may be a good time to take -260 or so at Pinny and then later buy the plus.....humm
From a 3rd person point of view: I had never watched a horse race before, and had 6 horses in the race; 2 were 1st, 2nd in the 3/4 turn. When Barbaro came around that last turn and won I wasn't even upset. I just thought "wow!!, these horses aren't even in his league." Not only is he fast, but i can tell that horse loves to be 1st! I gained a new respect for horse racing after watching Barbaro run.
I think he has a good chance. He sat right off a fast pace and pulled past the speed easily and drew clear with plenty left in the tank. Because he is a close stalker that can stay with any kind of speed pace, he is likely to be near the lead in both the Preakness and Belmont where neither should have the pace set in the Derby. If he wins the Preakness, expect the Belmont to be a very short field as most trainers don't want to race their 3 year old horses 3 times within five weeks and particulaly in the 1 & 1/2 mile Belmont. I took the plus line that he will succeed and a double or nothing on lunch with one of our fellow posters who correctly told me that Sinister Minister would go off at odds below 12.5 to 1. Now I'm chasing to break even with him, lol..
Yes he should:
1. 6 for 6 at 5 different tracks over all surface types: wet dirt, turf, fast dirt.
2. 6 for 6 whether on the lead, chasing, stalking/closing, bad start/good start...
3. 6 for 6 even even though in most races was the only one keeping loose frontrunner occupied, then drawing off--especially tough to accomplish on turf, did it 3 times. Even more impressive example may be Fla. Derby: bumped out of the gate on speed-biased track, then had to go chase & collar loose front-runner...and not fall susceptible to any closer at that longer 1-1/8 route distance while not bouncing from previous grueling duel on sloppy surface.
3. Pedigree best suited for classic international distances(1½+ mile), making him a candidate to not just win here, but to travel overseas and be a champ there too. No other contender in this country has the credentials / pp's to even dream of trying that.
4. Very fresh & plenty left in the tank:
A. no workouts for more than 3 weeks after race previous to Derby, and Derby was only 2nd race in 13 weeks.
B. Derby took "nothing" out of him: eating like a lion afterwards, kicking down the barn next day.
5. Tons of upside potential still left:
A. Figures from race to race still increasing exponentially(adjusted for trip/trouble)
B. Lightly raced, with races extremely well-spaced
C. Not pushed late in Derby...to boot while:
D. Posting 24-1/5 coming-home time in a "dirt 1-1/4 mile route after stalking fast pace"--last four furlongs averaged 12-2/5 each actually.
E. Excellent Derby fig considering not optimal early trip and not pushed late.
6. Complaints of closing horses with bad trips in Derby do not hold sufficient merit to label them solid threats:
1. Barbaro's start, early trip & wide position could were also not optimal.
2. With the exception of clean-trip Jazil, everyone else still lost further ground late to the winner.
3. A closer wanting to overtake someone in front throwing 12-1/5, 12-2/5 final furlongs would need to produce almost-unheard of 11& change final fractions, & even then Barbaro can likely beat 12 also.
All this being said, I would advise everyone to demand excellent morning clocker & physicality reports as occurred prior to Derby & to NOT eat win chalk in the Preakness: BUT a place or show bet, if within a dollar of the win payoff I would consider a very safe investment: this is how i handled both Funny Cide & Smarty Jones during their runs-- actually parlaying Preakness into Belmont with substantial starting wagers.
1. 6 for 6 at 5 different tracks over all surface types: wet dirt, turf, fast dirt.
2. 6 for 6 whether on the lead, chasing, stalking/closing, bad start/good start...
3. 6 for 6 even even though in most races was the only one keeping loose frontrunner occupied, then drawing off--especially tough to accomplish on turf, did it 3 times. Even more impressive example may be Fla. Derby: bumped out of the gate on speed-biased track, then had to go chase & collar loose front-runner...and not fall susceptible to any closer at that longer 1-1/8 route distance while not bouncing from previous grueling duel on sloppy surface.
3. Pedigree best suited for classic international distances(1½+ mile), making him a candidate to not just win here, but to travel overseas and be a champ there too. No other contender in this country has the credentials / pp's to even dream of trying that.
4. Very fresh & plenty left in the tank:
A. no workouts for more than 3 weeks after race previous to Derby, and Derby was only 2nd race in 13 weeks.
B. Derby took "nothing" out of him: eating like a lion afterwards, kicking down the barn next day.
5. Tons of upside potential still left:
A. Figures from race to race still increasing exponentially(adjusted for trip/trouble)
B. Lightly raced, with races extremely well-spaced
C. Not pushed late in Derby...to boot while:
D. Posting 24-1/5 coming-home time in a "dirt 1-1/4 mile route after stalking fast pace"--last four furlongs averaged 12-2/5 each actually.
E. Excellent Derby fig considering not optimal early trip and not pushed late.
6. Complaints of closing horses with bad trips in Derby do not hold sufficient merit to label them solid threats:
1. Barbaro's start, early trip & wide position could were also not optimal.
2. With the exception of clean-trip Jazil, everyone else still lost further ground late to the winner.
3. A closer wanting to overtake someone in front throwing 12-1/5, 12-2/5 final furlongs would need to produce almost-unheard of 11& change final fractions, & even then Barbaro can likely beat 12 also.
All this being said, I would advise everyone to demand excellent morning clocker & physicality reports as occurred prior to Derby & to NOT eat win chalk in the Preakness: BUT a place or show bet, if within a dollar of the win payoff I would consider a very safe investment: this is how i handled both Funny Cide & Smarty Jones during their runs-- actually parlaying Preakness into Belmont with substantial starting wagers.
trytrytry said:
That's very good-- slightly better than parlaying individual $3.80 prices(equivalent to +261)-- he may go off at Smarty Jones prices both races: in which case one could sell that ticket for a guaranteed profit after the Preakness--wouldn't have to worry about a pre-Belmont injury; OR lay hedge him in the Belmont at an exchange, which could pay as high as 5 or 10-1 then...
On the other hand, if all he's going to be for the Preakness is co-favorite w/ say Brother Derek--or even only a lukewarm favorite....
This is the first time ever that I'm going against the naysayers by saying the Derby winner will win the Triple Crown. It is one of the toughest things in sports to accomplish for a variety of reasons. Barbaro had the best Derby performance I have ever seen. You might want to watch a replay of this race a few times and watch Barbaro come out of the turn and onto the stretch. Prado shakes the reigns a little bit and he takes off from the pack like they are standing still. That's a Derby field that most agreed was the best there has been in a long while. Just a very talented horse who can probably win any type of race, you just don't see many like this. If he wins the Preakness he probably wont have too many competitors in the Belmont and I strongly doubt that he will be too tired for either of these races, Matz seems to know what he is doing.
