MLB: Monday Plays

Rockies @ Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -145
Comment:
Pros:
Here is a good spot to fade the Rockies and Francis, as line makers are valuing both of their fast starts as a much more sustainable trend than the way I see it. The Rockies are coming off a home sweep, however, are a much more inferior team away from the thin air. Although Francis is off to a fast start and is coming off three dominant starts in a row, I think it lacks sustainability, as he had the luxury of facing three lineups he fundamentally matches up well against. He also has been one of the worst road starters during the last couple of years, and has been known to lack the mental strength to pitch in games like this. Francis comes into today’s game with a career road ERA of over 6, and has been known to struggle with limiting his walks when facing veteran lineups that make you throw strikes. The Cardinals have been hitting left handed pitchers well this year, including an impressive beating against a top tier southpaw Willis, over the weekend. After going in a mini slump, the Cardinals bats finally woke up over the weekend, as they were able to score 7 plus runs in each of their three games against the Marlins. When Francis struggles, he struggles early and games have the potential to get out of hand rather quickly. This is comforting news for Marquis, a pitcher that hasn’t showcased his best stuff so far this year. The bottom line is that Francis is a hit or miss pitcher. With that said, there are more fundamental signs pointing at a miss start for him tonight.

This is a good spot for Marquis to bounce back from 3 sub par outings in a row, as much like Francis, his high walk total has been his demise. Marquis has dominant pitches, but often fails to throw them in the strike zone. He is often times helped out by young lineups that lack patience such as the one the Rockies come into today’s game with. The Rockies bats are slowly cooling down and they didn’t do much in their last road stand. Marquis is also backed by a solid bullpen that has had success against the Rockies over the years. Marquis doesn’t come into today’s game with the most impressive career totals against the Rockies; however, they are a bit misleading. The last two years, Marquis has pitched the Rockies rather well, as he won all three of his starts during that time frame.

Cons:
The Rockies appear to be a brand new team right now, and are playing with confidence that they lacked in past years. They also got their leader and best hitter back in the lineup over the weekend. Helton has also had solid success against Marquis in the past. Marquis appears to be very hittable in his last couple of starts, and lacks the movement in his pitches that he normally has. He also has never been a good starter at home, and makes for a better bet as a road pitcher. Francis should be pitching with a lot of confidence right now. This is a huge asset for him, as his weakness in the past has mostly been mental. He has been pitching much better on the road this year, and pitched the Cardinals well in his only start against them last year. If I am wrong with my speculation that this will be a miss start for him, the Cardinals will have trouble scoring runs throughout the game, as the Rockies have the most underrated bullpen in baseball.

Conclusion:
The Rockies have quickly become one of the publics “sexy” picks. Along with this comes overvaluation. Don’t let Francis’s most recent starts fool you- he is very vulnerable in this particular spot. Rarely will you see the Cardinals lay these little basis points at home against the Rockies. Several non-sustainable trends have created value on the Cardinals today.
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Twins @ Rangers
Play: Rangers -145
Comment:
Pros:
In my opinion, this is a good time to get on the Rangers as they came up empty in their weekend home series against the Yankees, even though they showed some good hitting and a lot of heart. It just so happens that you cant “out bang” the best power team in baseball. Luckily for them, they now face one of the most anemic lineups in baseball that are very vulnerable to the Rangers brand of baseball.

The Rangers send on the mound today their southpaw who is off to an impressive start to the season. He is coming off a dominant home start against the Orioles, and has pitched the sub par lineups in the league well so far. He has allowed less than a hit per inning and has also shown great control in most of his starts. When on, he has the ability to go deep into games and avoid the sub par Rangers middle relief. Today he gets to showcase his skills against one of the worst lineups over the last couple of years against southpaws. The Twins are once again struggling against left handed pitching. This is especially concerning as this holds most true for their most dangerous hitters in their lineup such as Hunter, White, Stewart, Ford and Morneau. This deficiency should be magnified when playing in a hitter’s park against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. The Twins have also played especially horrible on the road this year, as their hitting goes games without showing up. This is a good spot for Koronka to keep his hot streaking going before coming back down to earth.

Radke is off to a horrible start as his age and shoulder have clearly diminished his pitching abilities. Last September, Radke’s shoulder really wore out, and he still has yet to regain the command he used to have in the past. Radke has also carried one of the highest pitching performance disparities between home and road starts, and unfortunately for him today, his road starts has always been his downfall during his career. This also holds true for him this year, as he comes into today’s game with a 10 plus road ERA. Don’t put too much stock in Radke’s last outing, as it was against the worst lineup in baseball. He has consistently struggled against the better lineups in the league, and has been one of the most hittable pitchers so far this season. He also has struggled against the Rangers in his career, including the last couple of years against their power lineup. He has already allowed 11 home runs this year, which does not bode well for him tonight in this hitter’s park against this lineup. He is also backed by one of the more underachieving bullpens in the league right now. This is a good opportunity for the Rangers bats to get rewarded for their hitting and bounce back from getting swept at home during the weekend.

Cons:
I usually tend to fade young pitchers that are pitching over their head like Koronka. It’s just a matter of time until he experiences one of those starts that gives him a reality check. The Twins are a streaky lineup, and they actually looked good at the plate over the weekend. They also did a good job hitting the Tigers southpaws, and might be playing with the confidence they have been lacking for a while. Radke is coming off his best start of the season, and has actually had some success against some of the Rangers better hitters. This is a potential “missed the boat game” where you are betting on the overachieving pitcher going up against the underachieving pitcher.

Conclusion:
Although there are some reversible trends working against me in this game, I don’t see enough fundamental variables to make me think the trends reverse tonight. Fundamentally speaking, the Twins should be overmatched against this Rangers lineup, especially since they have really been struggling against southpaws and have been horrible on the road. Even at this price, the Rangers are well worth the risk in my opinion.

Astros @ Giants
Play: Giants +146
Comment:
Pros:
Although the Giants don’t stand the best chance of winning out of all the teams that play tonight, they do carry by far more value than any other team today.

Books have greatly underestimated Lowry’s pitching ability with the line they put forth today. He has been one of the best home pitchers in baseball the last couple of years, and has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball since last years All Star Break. Lowry has also downright dominated this Astros team in his two starts against him, as he allowed only one run in 16 innings of work against them. The Astros also only managed just 6 hits in those two games as well. Lowry has also always pitched much better at home, and might be the most underrated home pitcher in baseball, as he comes into today’s game with a home ERA almost under 3. He is also a much more effective pitcher under the lights, as his dominant change up is much harder to pick up. In the second half of last year, he worked on the velocity of his fastball, which increased the velocity disparity of his two predominant pitches, and has made him a much more effective pitcher. Although this is his first start coming off the DL, he pitched in rehab start last week in the minors where he was able to work his pitch count to 95 pitches. This should help him to avoid a bullpen that has been the worst in the National League this season. The Astros lineup also appears to be in a slump right now, as they failed to do anything in the most hitter friendly park in baseball over the weekend. They once again are playing much worse on the road this year, and their recent tear against left handed pitching lacks sustainability, as most of these players have not had past success against southpaws.

Although Oswalt is a top tier pitcher in baseball, the Giants are one of the few teams that have actually had some success against him, and have a few hitters in today’s lineup that has hit him well. Oswalt is also a much more effective pitcher at home, and even with his early season shutout in San Francisco, has predominantly struggled in this ballpark. He also got to face a “Bondsless” lineup earlier in the season, which will not be the case tonight. He is also backed by a bullpen that has really been struggling lately, including their all star closer that is lacking confidence right now.

Usually make up games like this one work against the road team. Road teams have a tendency to subconsciously treat one game series as a throw away game. After traveling last night, and later having to travel once again tonight after the game, one has to wonder how much intensity the Astros will put forth in tonight’s game.

Cons:
There is some speculation on how well Lowry will perform since coming off the DL. More times than not, I tend to wait a couple of starts when a pitcher is coming off an injury. Nerves might work against him, as he is making a home start and will try to impress and end a Giants losing streak. He will more than likely be on a smaller pitch count than normal, which does not bode well for the Giants, as their bullpen has been horrific and overworked. The Astros have too good of a lineup to stay dormant for a long period of time, and they have had some really good success against left handers this year. This might be an opportune time for them to get things back on track. The Giants lineup has also been faltering, and really misses their hottest hitter Alou. Age is really starting to show on this team.

Conclusion:
This might be the last time you ever seen Lowry come with this generous price tag at home. I am not sure if the Giants can pull off the victory tonight, but they have a much better chance than the line indicates. Too much value to pass them up tonight.