LOS ANGELES +1.13 over Houston <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Not a good spot for the Astros, who have lost four in a row and will play their third game in as many days in a different city. They played in Colorado this past weekend, flew to San Fran for a make-up game yesterday and than flew to L.A. for this game tonight. Major leaguers will tell you that playing one-make-up game and than playing the next day is pure hell. Andy Pettitte comes in with a 6.55 ERA on the road and his numbers aren’t pretty. 54 hits, seven jacks, 24 earned runs in 42 innings of work. Pettitte will turn things around, he always does but that usually starts to happen in late June. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are coming off a nice three-game sweep over the Brewers and will send Jae Sao to the hill. We’re not big fans of Sao but he is capable of throwing a decent game on occasion and this isn’t about him. It’s about playing against the Astros on a losing streak in a rather difficult situation with a struggling Andy Pettitte on the hill. Play: Los Angeles +1.13 (Risking 1.5 units).
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SAN DIEGO –1 +1.37 over Milwaukee<o></o>
Don’t be fooled by Clay Hensley’s 4.28 ERA or 6.91 home ERA. His ERA was grossly inflated when he appeared in relief in the Padres first few game but he’s been much more comfortable in the starter’s role. Hensley is 1-1 with a 3.22 ERA as a starter after making six relief appearances to start the year. In fact, three of his four starts have been extremely impressive. Hensley limited the Rockies to just two hits and one earned run in four innings in Colorado and than against the Dodgers he gave up just three earned runs in 13 innings, covering two straight starts. In addition, the Padres are hot as hell, having won nine in a row and that streak doesn’t figure to end here. It’s never a bad idea to play on sizzling teams and asking the Padres to just win outright seems like a reasonable request. Play: San Diego –1 +1.37 (Risking 1.5 units).
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Washington +1.43 over CINCINNATI<o></o>
Two things to note here; the Reds are not as good as their 21-11 record suggests and the Nationals are nowhere near as bad as their 11-21 record suggests, thus creating this overlay. The Nationals prefer the road and will send Tony Armas Jr. to the hill. Armas has some pretty nasty stuff and the only problem he’s had over the years is that he’s been unable to stay out of the infirmary to develop any consistency. The good news is that he’s only allowed three bombs in 32 innings and that’s significant because the Reds often live off the three-run jack. Armas can pitch, make no mistake about that and could crack the rotation of any team in the business. Brandon Claussen got off to a pretty good start but it was short-lived. Over his last three starts he’s surrendered 21 hits in 15 innings and allowed 14 earned runs for an ERA of 8.40 over that stretch. We’re not saying that he Nats will win here but we’re saying that the tag on their backs is a good one and certainly worthy of a wager because without doubt, they can win here. Play: Washington +1.43 (Risking 1.5 units).
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L.A. Angels +1.41 over CHICAGO<o></o>
The only reason Freddy Garcia is 4-1 is because the South Side has given him a ton of run support, otherwise his record would be more like 0-5. Won/loss records by pitchers in baseball is one of the more misleading stats in all of sports and Garcia is living proof of that. Garcia’s ERA at U.S. Cellular is 5.96 and overall his ERA is 5.45, which is the same ERA as Felix Hernandez of the Mariners who’s record is 1-4. A date with the White Sox may just be the fuel the Angels need to get off the mattress and with Kevin Gregg going their chances are good that’ll happen. Gregg has walked three batters in 17 innings to go along with the 12 hits he’s surrendered over that same span. He’s 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA and that includes a three-hit, seven inning performance over the hot Tigers in his last start. We acknowledge that the Angels are not playing well but that doesn’t change the fact that this is a talented group that is worthy of a play with a take-back like this against Freddy Garcia. Play: L.A. Angels +1.41 (Risking 1.5 units). <o></o>
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TORONTO +1.03 over Oakland<o></o>
The A’s favored here is a bit out of whack regardless of the struggles of one Josh Towers. Let’s not forget that Towers won 13 games last year and has at least 10 victories in each of the last three seasons with a far less talented Blue Jays team than the one he’s pitching for this season. Towers is in a funk, no doubt, but if he can get out of the first inning unscathed you can almost always count on him for a quality start. A visit from the A’s may just be what Towers needs to get his confidence back. Oakland is hitting .239 on the year and managed just six runs over the Devil Rays in a three game set over this past weekend. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays just took three of four from the Angels and has won seven of ten at home. They’ll face Danny Haren here who isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Haren has been torched for nine jacks in just 41 frames and his ERA is 5.27, which includes three starts at pitcher friendly McAfee Coliseum. His road ERA is 5.97 and he’ll be facing a formidable Jays line-up that looks something like this; Alex Rios batting .384, Frank Catalanotto batting .352, Vernon Wells batting .352, Troy Glaus batting .277 with 10 jacks and 26 RBI’s, Lyle Overbay batting .297, and Shea Hillenbrand batting .343. Eric Hinske shares the DH duties with Hillenbrand and Hinske is batting .318. The point is the Jays can hit and they can score runs with the best of them. Oakland favored here is incorrect. Play: Toronto +1.03 (Risking 1.5 units).
fficeffice" /><o></o>Not a good spot for the Astros, who have lost four in a row and will play their third game in as many days in a different city. They played in Colorado this past weekend, flew to San Fran for a make-up game yesterday and than flew to L.A. for this game tonight. Major leaguers will tell you that playing one-make-up game and than playing the next day is pure hell. Andy Pettitte comes in with a 6.55 ERA on the road and his numbers aren’t pretty. 54 hits, seven jacks, 24 earned runs in 42 innings of work. Pettitte will turn things around, he always does but that usually starts to happen in late June. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are coming off a nice three-game sweep over the Brewers and will send Jae Sao to the hill. We’re not big fans of Sao but he is capable of throwing a decent game on occasion and this isn’t about him. It’s about playing against the Astros on a losing streak in a rather difficult situation with a struggling Andy Pettitte on the hill. Play: Los Angeles +1.13 (Risking 1.5 units).
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></o>SAN DIEGO –1 +1.37 over Milwaukee<o
></o>Don’t be fooled by Clay Hensley’s 4.28 ERA or 6.91 home ERA. His ERA was grossly inflated when he appeared in relief in the Padres first few game but he’s been much more comfortable in the starter’s role. Hensley is 1-1 with a 3.22 ERA as a starter after making six relief appearances to start the year. In fact, three of his four starts have been extremely impressive. Hensley limited the Rockies to just two hits and one earned run in four innings in Colorado and than against the Dodgers he gave up just three earned runs in 13 innings, covering two straight starts. In addition, the Padres are hot as hell, having won nine in a row and that streak doesn’t figure to end here. It’s never a bad idea to play on sizzling teams and asking the Padres to just win outright seems like a reasonable request. Play: San Diego –1 +1.37 (Risking 1.5 units).
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></o>Washington +1.43 over CINCINNATI<o
></o>Two things to note here; the Reds are not as good as their 21-11 record suggests and the Nationals are nowhere near as bad as their 11-21 record suggests, thus creating this overlay. The Nationals prefer the road and will send Tony Armas Jr. to the hill. Armas has some pretty nasty stuff and the only problem he’s had over the years is that he’s been unable to stay out of the infirmary to develop any consistency. The good news is that he’s only allowed three bombs in 32 innings and that’s significant because the Reds often live off the three-run jack. Armas can pitch, make no mistake about that and could crack the rotation of any team in the business. Brandon Claussen got off to a pretty good start but it was short-lived. Over his last three starts he’s surrendered 21 hits in 15 innings and allowed 14 earned runs for an ERA of 8.40 over that stretch. We’re not saying that he Nats will win here but we’re saying that the tag on their backs is a good one and certainly worthy of a wager because without doubt, they can win here. Play: Washington +1.43 (Risking 1.5 units).
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></o>L.A. Angels +1.41 over CHICAGO<o
></o>The only reason Freddy Garcia is 4-1 is because the South Side has given him a ton of run support, otherwise his record would be more like 0-5. Won/loss records by pitchers in baseball is one of the more misleading stats in all of sports and Garcia is living proof of that. Garcia’s ERA at U.S. Cellular is 5.96 and overall his ERA is 5.45, which is the same ERA as Felix Hernandez of the Mariners who’s record is 1-4. A date with the White Sox may just be the fuel the Angels need to get off the mattress and with Kevin Gregg going their chances are good that’ll happen. Gregg has walked three batters in 17 innings to go along with the 12 hits he’s surrendered over that same span. He’s 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA and that includes a three-hit, seven inning performance over the hot Tigers in his last start. We acknowledge that the Angels are not playing well but that doesn’t change the fact that this is a talented group that is worthy of a play with a take-back like this against Freddy Garcia. Play: L.A. Angels +1.41 (Risking 1.5 units). <o
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></o>TORONTO +1.03 over Oakland<o
></o>The A’s favored here is a bit out of whack regardless of the struggles of one Josh Towers. Let’s not forget that Towers won 13 games last year and has at least 10 victories in each of the last three seasons with a far less talented Blue Jays team than the one he’s pitching for this season. Towers is in a funk, no doubt, but if he can get out of the first inning unscathed you can almost always count on him for a quality start. A visit from the A’s may just be what Towers needs to get his confidence back. Oakland is hitting .239 on the year and managed just six runs over the Devil Rays in a three game set over this past weekend. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays just took three of four from the Angels and has won seven of ten at home. They’ll face Danny Haren here who isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Haren has been torched for nine jacks in just 41 frames and his ERA is 5.27, which includes three starts at pitcher friendly McAfee Coliseum. His road ERA is 5.97 and he’ll be facing a formidable Jays line-up that looks something like this; Alex Rios batting .384, Frank Catalanotto batting .352, Vernon Wells batting .352, Troy Glaus batting .277 with 10 jacks and 26 RBI’s, Lyle Overbay batting .297, and Shea Hillenbrand batting .343. Eric Hinske shares the DH duties with Hillenbrand and Hinske is batting .318. The point is the Jays can hit and they can score runs with the best of them. Oakland favored here is incorrect. Play: Toronto +1.03 (Risking 1.5 units).
