MLB: Tuesday Plays

Mets @ Phillies
Play: Over 7.5
Comment:
Pros:
When I was starting to handicap this game, I was originally planning to take the home dog, as I felt they were getting good value at home with their ace on the mound. However, the more I handicapped this game, the less I liked the Phillies, and the more I liked the over.

Although Myers has really been pitching well this season, this is a good spot for a bit of a retracing, as he pitches in a ballpark which usually causes him the most problems, and faces a team that has owned him in the past. The Mets have one of the most potent lineups in the league, and are a good fly ball hitting team. This is a fundamental asset playing in a hitter’s friendly park where fly balls really travel well. The Mets have really given Myers problems in past years, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA well over 5 against them. There are people in the top, middle, and bottom of the lineup that have given him fits. Reyes and LoDucca are both hitting well over .300 against him, leading me to believe Myers will have to pitch from the stretch against the big bats in the Mets lineup. The middle of the lineup, Beltran, Delgado, and Floyd have all owned him in their own right, leading me to believe they will be able to take advantage of the stretch and drive runners in. The bottom of the order has also hit Myers well in limited at bats. In fact, every starter in today’s lineup is hitting well over .300 against Myers, except Wright, who is one of the best hitters in the league. Myers is also backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, a bullpen that fundamentally has a disadvantage against the Mets. If this game plays to fundamental form, the Mets should be able to put up several runs.

Martinez is also a pitcher that is off to an impressive start. However, his numbers are better than how he has really been pitching, and he has had the luxury of facing some anemic lineups. This will come to an end today, as he faces the hottest lineup in baseball, and a lineup that is finally starting to live up to expectations. The Phillies hitters seem to be seeing the ball really well right now, and are playing with a lot of confidence. Adding fuel to their fire is the fact that Wagner has been giving them incentive to play harder with the trash talking that has been going on. Although Martinez has had past success against several Phillies hitters, most of the success has occurred a few years back. The Phillies were able to hit Martinez well last year, and Rollins and Utley did a number on him. Martinez also isn’t able to go terribly deep into games, giving the Phillies a chance to score against some bullpen pitchers that aren’t at Martinez’s level.

There is also good value with the line lines makers put forth. Rarely do you see a 7.5 total in what might be the biggest hitter’s park in baseball.

Cons:
Betting an under when two aces that have been pitching well are on the mound does have its risks. The Mets lineup hasn’t been living up to their potential yet, while the Phillies might be due for a bit of a regression. Both pitchers are strikeout pitchers, something you don’t want in this ballpark.

Conclusion:
Too much value on the over in my opinion. Rarely do you see a 7.5 total in this park. Rarely do you see a 7.5 total when arguably the two best lineups in the National League are playing. Rarely do you see a 7.5 total when a pitcher has struggled against so many hitters in the opponent’s lineup. Add to the mix the bullpen pitcher/hitter match up, and the over really looks good to me. I am taking my chances with the over.
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Tigers @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -102
Comment:
Pros:
In my opinion, this is a good spot for the Orioles to end their five game losing streak, as they face a team that is playing over their head, and are finally starting to show signs of slowing down. Cabrera is one of the most volatile pitchers in baseball, and could make your bet end really fast if he has one of his bad outings. With that said, this appears to be one of those spots where he pitches well. Cabrera has been getting progressively better as the season has progressed, and he looks a lot more comfortable on the mound. He has done a lot better keeping his walks down, and gets to face one of the least patient lineups in baseball. This is a huge asset for Cabrera, as he often struggles finding the strike zone. He is also a much better pitcher at home, and has one of the highest disparities of home and road stats in baseball over the last couple of years. After his home debut debacle, Cabrera has been downright dominant at home this year. He also had good success against the Tigers last year, winning both of his starts against them. He is also backed by a better rested bullpen that got a much needed day off yesterday. Cabrera also has the ability to eat up a lot of innings when facing lineups that lack patience, which is a big asset, as the Orioles middle relief is one of the worst in baseball.

Although Robertson is off to an impressive start, the sustainability factor is lacking. Last year Robertson failed miserably on the road, but has only been on the mound twice away from home this year. Last year he really struggled pitching at Camden Yards, as he allowed nine runs in just 11 innings of work. This looks like a spot where Robertson might come back to earth.

The Orioles just got finished playing two hard road series against quality teams. They have quickly become out of favor, as the public has shied away from them. They will get a good chance to rebound at home, as they face a lineup that will be without Palanco and Shelton, arguably the two most important hitters in the Tigers lineup.

Cons:
Cabrera is a big risk to bet on as his starts have huge volatility. If he struggles early, the bet will more than likely be over fast, as he hasn’t been able to rebound from poor beginnings of games in the past. The Orioles have greatly been struggling against left handed pitching, including Tejada, a hitter who the Orioles greatly depend on. The Orioles also have a depleted lineup whose ability to score has decreases substantially without Lopez and Roberts in the lineup. The Tigers have been one of the best road teams in baseball, and Robertson has shown no signs of regressing to his mean. Early money on the Orioles has taken the majority of the value away from the Orioles, and they were a much more compelling bet as a home underdog.

Cons:
Here is a buck the trend play. I don’t think the Tigers will keep playing this well on the road. I don’t think Robertson will continue to pitch this well. This is a good spot for these two Tigers trends to reverse, as Robertson has never been a good road pitcher, and struggled in Camden last year. I will also buck the 5 game losing streak the Orioles come into today’s game with, as I feel it was as much a product of the quality of their opponent as it is a deficiency of this team.

Red Sox @ Yankees
Play: Yankees -146
Comment:
Pros:
When I was surface capping this game, I felt the over in this game really looked compelling. However, the more I handicapped this game; the Yankees began to look like the most compelling side in this game.

It is quiet evident that Johnson’s skills have clearly diminished. With that said, he is still one of the more dominant southpaws in baseball. This is a huge game for him, as his struggles continued last week against a team that hit him well in the past. Critics have grown to an all time high, as more and more people think his career is over. What more of an opportune time can he get to prove them wrong as he gets a home start in the biggest rivalry match in all sports? Johnson’s sub par career stats against the Red Sox are a bit misleading, as he pitched them well last year, and has been dominant against all the best Red Sox hitters. I really like his chances to bounce back, as he fundamentally has the advantage over this Red Sox lineup. The Red Sox, as a team, has really been struggling against left handed pitching this year. This holds most true for their best and hottest hitter Ramirez, who is hitting below .200 against left handed pitching this year. This is not a good time for their lack of success against southpaws to turn around, as they face a very motivated Unit who has owned several of their hitters in the past. Loretta has been clueless with Johnson, as he has managed only 3 hits in 38 at bats against him. Ortiz has only 3 hits in 18 tries, while Ramirez is 7 for 36 against him. In fact, the Red Sox 2-5 hitters are all batting below .200 against him. Johnson is also backed by a well rested bullpen that will certainly use all their best pitchers to try to take this vital game.

Beckett has also been struggling. However, this is not as a compelling of a game for him to bounce back. Beckett has really been missing with his location, and has shown a tendency to leave a lot of his pitches up in the strike zone. It is k\no surprise that this deficiency has lead him to struggle against the power lineups like the Indians and Blue Jays. Unfortunately for him, he now has to face the best lineup against power pitchers, and a lineup that eats up challenge fastballs like the one Beckett has been throwing lately. Beckett’s lack of control of his pitches has also made him accumulate a high walk total. The Yankees also have the most patient lineup in baseball, and will be able to take advantage of Beckett’s lack of control. He has also been a much better home pitcher, and has struggled once again on the road this year. Part of Beckett’s problems this year has been mental, as he seems to not have adjusted to the pressure of pitching on the Red Sox. Things will not get any easier for him today, as he pitches in Yankee Stadium. His lack of control has also forced him to accumulate a high pitch count early in games. This does not bode well for him, as he is backed by one of the worst middle relief bullpens in baseball.

Cons:
Johnson is clearly not the same pitcher he once was. His velocity has decreased substantially, and he is now unable to get away from his location mistakes. With the line lines makers have put forth today, some may feel that you are paying a lot for the past accomplishments of Johnson, and not the kind of pitcher he is today. Beckett is a much better pitcher than the one he has been pitching like. It’s just a matter of time until he showcases his true talent. The Red Sox lineup is getting progressively better as the season goes along. They are playing with a lot of momentum right now. The Yankees lineup is not nearly as dangerous without Sheffield, and they have yet to find an adequate replacement to ease the pain.


Conclusion:
This match consists of two solid pitchers that have been struggling as of late. Trying to quantify who has the better chance of bouncing back today is vital. Johnson is pitching in the friendly confines. Johnson is a more tested pitcher that is stronger mentally. Beckett is the pitcher that has struggled on the road. The Red Sox are the team that has struggled against southpaws. Johnson is the pitcher that has owned the better hitters in the opponent’s lineup. The Yankees lineup is the lineup that loves power pitcher like Beckett more than any other lineup in baseball. All the signs point to Johnson to bounce back from recent miseries. Even at this price, the Yankees are still one of the more compelling bets in my opinion.

Angels @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -146
Comment:
Pros:
The “market” is clearly not thinking that the Angels recent woes are sustainable, however, to a point, I feel they are.

The Angels come into today’s game with one of the most slumping lineups in the league. This just got finished playing a hard fought four game road series that ended yesterday in Toronto, while the White Sox were done with their easy 3 game home series against the lowly Royals on Sunday. Although Garcia doesn’t have the most impressive stats in the league, he is a much better pitcher than his stats indicate. He has also owned the Angels more than any other team in his career. He comes into today’s game with a 12 and 3 record against them, and an impressive ERA of 2.73. A couple of weeks ago, he allowed 3 runs in 6 innings against this Angels lineup. However, that was on the road, and due to an abnormally high walk total is that game. Garcia showed a lot more control in his last start than he has all season. He is also backed by bullpen that got a much needed day off yesterday to face this slumping and injured lineup.

Gregg has pitched well this year, but I don’t think this fast start by a converted bullpen pitcher warrants such odds on the road against the defending road champs. Although he looked good in his first start of the season last week, I am skeptical of the sustainability it comes with. No other lineup makes you throw more pitches than the White Sox. This might take its toll on a bullpen pitcher that is trying to conserve his pitch count. Although he is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, it still is a bullpen that that the White Sox has had some decent success over the last couple of years. It is also a bullpen that is somewhat vulnerable in middle relief, a portion of their bullpen that is more than likely going to step foot on the mound in today’s game.

Cons:
I tend to shy away betting against teams that are underachieving, as they usually make to be the most dangerous type of team in baseball. It’s just a matter of time until the Angels lineup gets out of this prolonged slump. This might be an ideal time, as they face a pitcher they have seen a lot of over the years. Even though Garcia has some impressive numbers against the Angels, there are a few hitters that have had success against him. Garcia is also not one of the better home pitchers in the league, and his style of pitching isn’t the best style in this ballpark. He is also backed by a tired bullpen that isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, and a lineup that didn’t look good at the plate in their last series.

Conclusion:
In my opinion, this is a small price to pay on one of the hottest teams in the league against one of the coldest teams in the league. Until the Angels show some signs of life, I will be willing to bet against them at this price. I am on the White Sox today.
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Brewers @ Padres
Play: Brewers -100
Comment:
Pros:
I am not overly impressed with the Padres current winning streak, as they have played the role of opportunists, and have been barely beating the more slumping teams in the league. Today the trend of facing anemic lineups comes to an end, as they face of one of the more potent, yet streaky lineups in the national league. I am still not sold on Hensley, especially as a starter. His style of pitching is vulnerable against power lineups, and is also prone to accumulating high walk totals. He has also shown a case of nerves when pitching at home. He is also coming off a start where he was hit in the head with a bat. Adding these two variables together and Hensley might be lacking mental strength in this game, and also may be prone to over pitching. He also isn’t the most capable Padres starter to be able to go deep into games. This does not bode well for the Padres, as even with their recent improvement, the Padres bullpen is one of the most suspect in the league. The Padres are a team better suited to playing less potent lineups that try to play small ball. They are vulnerable when facing the style of team the Brewers bring to the table.

Davis is a much better pitcher than his stats indicate, and he has more resembled his pitching ability in his last two starts. In the past, he pitched the Padres and their best hitter well. The Padres are once again one of the worst lineups against left handed pitching this year. All their best hitters aside from Castilla have really struggled against southpaw. Things shouldn’t get an easier for them today, as Davis has been one of the harder pitchers to hit, and his walks have been his downfall so far this year. The Brewers got a much needed day off yesterday, especially their bullpen that is very vulnerable when overworked.

Cons:
The Padres are playing with a lot of momentum and confidence right now. Their bats have woken up since that last inning comeback a couple of weeks ago. They are also a much more dangerous lineup with Cameron in it, especially against left handed pitching. Davis has struggled throughout his career on the road, and has also struggled against a few Padres hitters in today’s lineup when they were playing with other teams. The Padres also have a patient lineup with the capability of drawing walks. This does not bode well for Davis, as he has struggled finding the strike zone in several of his starts this year. Hensley is getting progressively better as the season goes along. He is also coming off an impressive start last Thursday, and is backed by a bullpen that has improved a lot during their recent winning streak. The Brewers have a very streaky lineup that seems to not be hitting the ball well lately. They are also a dangerous team to bet on, as they rarely play to fundamental form.

Conclusion:
The Brewers have the better starting pitcher and the better rested bullpen. They also have the more dangerous lineup. The Padres lack the home field advantage most home teams have, as they once against have not been playing their best baseball at home this year. The public is looking too much into the number of wins in a row, and are failing to look at the quality of those wins. For this reason, value has been derived on the Brewers.
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Thats a lot of typing.Thanks for the good work.