Hey CC, I tried to find the article from a few years ago, but couldn't. A math professor worked out the formula based on 20+ years of games
...basically it is always (long term) advantageous to play the RL (MINUS-1.5) alt or regular -1.5
when turning a favorite into a dog on the ROAD ONLY.
In all other instances---home games --fav or dog, or road dog into a bigger dog-1.5, it is advantageous to play it straight.
Although you get less of a $$ edge on road -1.5 than home -1.5
The ONLY Long Term advantage is turning those -120 road favs into +135 -1.5 road dogs.
Never is it advantageous to BUY the +1.5.
I wish I could find the article. I can imagine I tossed it though because it was easy to grasp, I bought it hook line and sinker, and it has generally proved correct although I never worked it out over 20 years.
Hope that helps for what it's worth.
...basically it is always (long term) advantageous to play the RL (MINUS-1.5) alt or regular -1.5
when turning a favorite into a dog on the ROAD ONLY.
In all other instances---home games --fav or dog, or road dog into a bigger dog-1.5, it is advantageous to play it straight.
Although you get less of a $$ edge on road -1.5 than home -1.5
The ONLY Long Term advantage is turning those -120 road favs into +135 -1.5 road dogs.
Never is it advantageous to BUY the +1.5.
I wish I could find the article. I can imagine I tossed it though because it was easy to grasp, I bought it hook line and sinker, and it has generally proved correct although I never worked it out over 20 years.
Hope that helps for what it's worth.
SysPlayer said:
SYS,
That is great info! I had thought there might be an advantage to it. Do you think it has changed the last 8 years, with the long ball and watered down pitching, where it is even more of an advantage? It seems there are not as many close games one way or the other.
Thanks again for the response, great stuff!
