I will post my late games later today. For now I am going with 2 favorites in the early games. I have to win both in order to prevent getting into an early hole/
Twins @ Rangers
Play: Rangers -161
Comment:
Pros:
One has to like the Rangers in this game after an embarrassing home loss last night. One also has to look at the Twins as a compelling fade, as road teams with anemic lineups that just put up double digit runs on the board the previous game are usually vulnerable to laying an egg the following game.
Lohse is off to a horrific start, and simply lacks the tools to match up well against this potent Rangers lineup. He is coming off two horrible starts where he was very hittable and appeared to breakdown mentally. He now comes into this game lacking confidence, and has to face an angry team that has owned him in the past. Lohse has a near 8 ERA against this Rangers team, and has been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball over the last few years. Lohse has been missing with his location, and has been vulnerable at leaving a lot of pitches across the plate, which is the last thing you want to do against this lineup. There are a few players that have had past success against him, and a couple others that have had limited at bats against him, but fundamentally match up well against him. He is also backed by a bullpen that has depreciated when compared to the last couple years. This holds most true for the middle relief, who are more than likely going to be stepping foot on the mound, as Lohse is more than likely not going to go deep into this game. Day games favor the power lineups, as balls travel betting during the day. This is a nice embedded advantage for this Rangers lineup, which has been known to hit better during the day. The same can not be said for this Twins lineup.
Padilla is coming off a couple of poor outings, and seems to not be the same pitcher that came fast out of the gates earlier this year. However, you have to like his chances of putting forth a solid bounce back start today. First of all, Padilla has the tendency to struggle against patient lineups that have the ability to make a pitcher pay when they finally come into the strike zone. A good example of this is the Yankees lineup that made him pay in his last start. Fortunately for him he faces a lineup that has the tendency to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, and lacks the ability to make you pay once challenged. Expect Padilla to have one of his better starts of the season, and avoid a sub par bullpen that got in a lot of work last night due to Millwood’s explosion. Lastly, the Twins will be without White in the lineup, a power weapon in his own right.
Cons:
The Twins are coming off their best offensive game of the season. They have been known to be one of the more streaky lineups in the league, and could carry the momentum of last night into today’s game. Padilla has not looked sharp as of late. This is concerning because when he lacks his A game, he could kill the bet rather quickly. Something is telling me to lay off the Rangers today. I think it’s the fact that this game won’t play to fundamental for due to Lohse pitching better than expected. He has been known to consistently bounce back well from horrible outings. He also was dominant last year during day games. Don’t be surprised if he up-ends the Rangers lineup today.
Conclusion:
I am going to take my chances that this game plays to fundamental form, or at least doesn’t deviate too much from it. Even at this price, an angry home team that has the superior lineup and better starting pitcher makes for a compelling bet.
Twins @ Rangers
Play: Rangers -161
Comment:
Pros:
One has to like the Rangers in this game after an embarrassing home loss last night. One also has to look at the Twins as a compelling fade, as road teams with anemic lineups that just put up double digit runs on the board the previous game are usually vulnerable to laying an egg the following game.
Lohse is off to a horrific start, and simply lacks the tools to match up well against this potent Rangers lineup. He is coming off two horrible starts where he was very hittable and appeared to breakdown mentally. He now comes into this game lacking confidence, and has to face an angry team that has owned him in the past. Lohse has a near 8 ERA against this Rangers team, and has been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball over the last few years. Lohse has been missing with his location, and has been vulnerable at leaving a lot of pitches across the plate, which is the last thing you want to do against this lineup. There are a few players that have had past success against him, and a couple others that have had limited at bats against him, but fundamentally match up well against him. He is also backed by a bullpen that has depreciated when compared to the last couple years. This holds most true for the middle relief, who are more than likely going to be stepping foot on the mound, as Lohse is more than likely not going to go deep into this game. Day games favor the power lineups, as balls travel betting during the day. This is a nice embedded advantage for this Rangers lineup, which has been known to hit better during the day. The same can not be said for this Twins lineup.
Padilla is coming off a couple of poor outings, and seems to not be the same pitcher that came fast out of the gates earlier this year. However, you have to like his chances of putting forth a solid bounce back start today. First of all, Padilla has the tendency to struggle against patient lineups that have the ability to make a pitcher pay when they finally come into the strike zone. A good example of this is the Yankees lineup that made him pay in his last start. Fortunately for him he faces a lineup that has the tendency to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, and lacks the ability to make you pay once challenged. Expect Padilla to have one of his better starts of the season, and avoid a sub par bullpen that got in a lot of work last night due to Millwood’s explosion. Lastly, the Twins will be without White in the lineup, a power weapon in his own right.
Cons:
The Twins are coming off their best offensive game of the season. They have been known to be one of the more streaky lineups in the league, and could carry the momentum of last night into today’s game. Padilla has not looked sharp as of late. This is concerning because when he lacks his A game, he could kill the bet rather quickly. Something is telling me to lay off the Rangers today. I think it’s the fact that this game won’t play to fundamental for due to Lohse pitching better than expected. He has been known to consistently bounce back well from horrible outings. He also was dominant last year during day games. Don’t be surprised if he up-ends the Rangers lineup today.
Conclusion:
I am going to take my chances that this game plays to fundamental form, or at least doesn’t deviate too much from it. Even at this price, an angry home team that has the superior lineup and better starting pitcher makes for a compelling bet.
