When making a baseball line, what pct would you say is starting pitching?

Iceman · May 10, 2006

interested to hear opinions?

Kruser6 · May 10, 2006

I would say in most situations 55-65% in my mind.

Budworth22 · May 10, 2006

High 30's if you have a true and accurate rating of their ability.

Budworth22 · May 10, 2006

200oth Post...

But to be honest, odds makers probably factor it in more than that.

I look at umpire, home/away, ow that park will effect the teams/starters, and the team (obviously, in nl only 8 hitters)

VIEJODINOSAUR · May 10, 2006

Guessing around 70 per cent....

Iceman · May 10, 2006

WOW. My estimation is quite a bit lower. Still more than anyhting else but maybe around 40%.
Breakdown: (just a estimate)
20% overall team(defense, relief pitching,etc)
20% home field
20% team offenses
40% starting pitching

Journeyman · May 10, 2006

I don't know about actual % but it means more than anything, and nothing else is even close.

last 5 starts
career #s vs projected starting line up
how he's fared vs that team , partuclarly the past 2 years

that is where I start.

CHOPTALK · May 10, 2006

Starting pitching 60%
Overall pitching 80%

Just remember Steve Carlton won 27 games one year and his team only won 55. On his 38 starts during the season the Phillies were the best team in baseball everytime he stepped on the mound. The other 120 games Philly was the worst team in baseball.

PITCHING IS EVERYTHING!!!!!

ElJefe · May 11, 2006

About 2/3. So like 65% I would say.

WildBill · May 11, 2006

My guess is runs are determined by 40% offense, 30% starters, 20% relievers and 10% defense.

Arodd · May 11, 2006

WildBill said:
My guess is runs are determined by 40% offense, 30% starters, 20% relievers and 10% defense.

think relievers % changes dependingon who's starting...

Thrillseeker · May 11, 2006

This is one of the huge problems that I had with Murray's book, besides the upteen zillion math & stat errors...

He states that the starting pitching is only worth 14% & pen is 7% for each team, with no empirical evidence to support the claim...I can't find anyone that actually bets baseball, follows the lines, etc., that agrees that only 28% of the influence in a baseball line is starting pitching...

FairWarning · May 11, 2006

75% for sides, and the bullpen is factored into 50% of totals.

Santo · May 11, 2006

I'm not sure that's a fair assessment, in his section on creating the line pitching plays a more significant role than 28%.

ramdaddy · May 11, 2006

Insiders · May 11, 2006

My guess is about
55% Starting pitching.
25% Bullpen relief is this starter is NOT a full gamer!
10% Defense
10% Home Field and Last at bats.

JMHO

Iceman · May 11, 2006

don't agree with this 70-80% stuff. I still think it is the most important thing but many other factors
An example is the Angels would be favored with Escobar vs Garland today but aren't because of the home field and the fact they are a way better team.Just my opinion

Iceman · May 11, 2006

Chicago White sox's are the way better team

PokerKingJim · May 11, 2006

Think the books often put too much emphasis on the starting pitcher. I love betting on teams that are a much better team but have the worst of it in the SP department that day.