Got a little back last night after going 3-2 and winning 460. Now at 36-45-3 and down 3163 for the '06 campaign.
One thing: I didn't actually check this myself, but was told either 11 or 12 of 15 went OVER last night. Some bullpens (ahem, Dodgers) have been absolutely pathetic recently. You're seeing some starters make 105-110 pitches for the first time and their next start is usually not nearly as successful. A disturbing trend for one of my good friends, who is an UNDER bettor. He's taking the day off. Not me!
Going swinging again today as, just like on Tuesday, there a number of UMPS going for me. Four guys who all fall in 'club status' membership, and thankfully, I agree with their tendencies for the totals in all four games.
Hudson and the D-Train going in south Florida tonight. Willis has struggled badly as of late and will try to avoid losing four straight for the first time in his career. He had a long and drawn out conversation that lasted an inning or so in the dugout after Girardi yanked him (he went 4 2/3 inn and gave up a career high 12 hits to STL) and I look for a bounce-back tonight. He is 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA in nine career starts against the Braves. More importantly, the last time he faced them, he struck out a career-high 12 through seven innings in his final start of 2005. Hudson has been inconsistent, with a W-L-W-L pattern his last four. He allowed six runs, nine hits and walked three over 6 1/3 innings Sunday to the Mets. If his current pattern holds, he'll be solid tonight. Hudson is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts vs. FLA. Fieldin Culbreath is behind the dish tonight. His strike percentage is 64.7 and is 2-4 in '06. He's done Hudson games twice and those two games, the final scores were 2-1 and 3-0. I'll bite.
The play: UNDER 8 EVEN - 400 to win 400
My boy Zach Day comes back to his hometown tonight to pitch for the Nattys against the Redlegs. Rain could be a factor. Let's get those bullpens involved! If that happens, it doesn't matter HOW good Arroyo has been going, I'll love my side.
As Wire said earlier, Day hasn't been right since his injury and I think the Reds are grossly underpriced here (made it -200). I can see why it's a little lower given Day had his best start since last summer last time out and Arroyo gave up 11 hits last time.
Marsh is behind the plate. He's 6-1 this year with 11 rpg and a 60.8 strike percentage (close enough to warrant club status, considering his only UNDER today, the final score was 7-2) and his 43-22 record O/U since '04... His last seven games at Cincinnati have ALL gone over, and four of those have been in the Great OVERican Ballpark.
I'll bite.
The play: WAS/CIN OVER 9.5 -106 - 636 to win 600
Skip one down to Baltimore, where two lefties go tonight in the Gambler and Bedard. The Gambler will face an Orioles squad that is hitting just .206 against LH starters. Mora and Gomez might not go tonight either. Rain could be a part of this one.
Bedard won his first four starts of the season, but is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three times out. Look for him to try to turn it around tonight after going just two innings against Boston last time. The price looks really cheap on Detroit tonight so I'll bite on the side as well, considering they've banged out 10 or more hits in four of their last five games and Baltimore has lost 9 of 11. Gorman and his 65.3 strike percentage qualifies for an UNDER, as does his 27-46 record behind the plate since 2004.
The plays: Detroit - 111 - 333 to win 300 and UNDER 9 -116 in DET/BAL - 464 to win 400
Big bet of the day is in the Bronx, where Tim Wakefield and Shawn Chacon go out and try to figure out how to get some steeeeerikes out of stingy Greg Gibson. I say Ho Ho Ho, Christmas in May with Gibson's 59.8 strike percentage and 39-29 O/U record since 2004. He's yielding 11.29 rpg this year, has seen 3 of his last 4 go OVER after a slow start and has done five straight Red Sox games OVER. Not only that, Gibson has had Wakefield twice in his career and is NOT a big fan of the knuckler. Boston beat Detroit 11-9 once, and lost 11-8 to Toronto the other time. Neither of these two pitchers are as good as their counterparts from the last two nights, yet the games still went OVER. I'll sell the half-run from 10 to 10.5 because it's not worth 18 cents they're giving me (better bargain than O 10 -116)...
Despite having won his last four starts, Chacon is 0-1 with a 12.71 ERA in four appearances against the Red Sox. Wakefield hasn't won since his second start of the season. He's 8-12 with a 4.47 ERA in 40 career appearances, including 23 starts, against the Yankees.
This one sails over the total.
The play: BOS/NYY OVER 10.5 plus 102 - 800 to win 816.
Onto tomorrow's stuff, back in the afternoon to chat... GL!
:thumbsup2:
One thing: I didn't actually check this myself, but was told either 11 or 12 of 15 went OVER last night. Some bullpens (ahem, Dodgers) have been absolutely pathetic recently. You're seeing some starters make 105-110 pitches for the first time and their next start is usually not nearly as successful. A disturbing trend for one of my good friends, who is an UNDER bettor. He's taking the day off. Not me!
Going swinging again today as, just like on Tuesday, there a number of UMPS going for me. Four guys who all fall in 'club status' membership, and thankfully, I agree with their tendencies for the totals in all four games.
Hudson and the D-Train going in south Florida tonight. Willis has struggled badly as of late and will try to avoid losing four straight for the first time in his career. He had a long and drawn out conversation that lasted an inning or so in the dugout after Girardi yanked him (he went 4 2/3 inn and gave up a career high 12 hits to STL) and I look for a bounce-back tonight. He is 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA in nine career starts against the Braves. More importantly, the last time he faced them, he struck out a career-high 12 through seven innings in his final start of 2005. Hudson has been inconsistent, with a W-L-W-L pattern his last four. He allowed six runs, nine hits and walked three over 6 1/3 innings Sunday to the Mets. If his current pattern holds, he'll be solid tonight. Hudson is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts vs. FLA. Fieldin Culbreath is behind the dish tonight. His strike percentage is 64.7 and is 2-4 in '06. He's done Hudson games twice and those two games, the final scores were 2-1 and 3-0. I'll bite.
The play: UNDER 8 EVEN - 400 to win 400
My boy Zach Day comes back to his hometown tonight to pitch for the Nattys against the Redlegs. Rain could be a factor. Let's get those bullpens involved! If that happens, it doesn't matter HOW good Arroyo has been going, I'll love my side.
As Wire said earlier, Day hasn't been right since his injury and I think the Reds are grossly underpriced here (made it -200). I can see why it's a little lower given Day had his best start since last summer last time out and Arroyo gave up 11 hits last time.
Marsh is behind the plate. He's 6-1 this year with 11 rpg and a 60.8 strike percentage (close enough to warrant club status, considering his only UNDER today, the final score was 7-2) and his 43-22 record O/U since '04... His last seven games at Cincinnati have ALL gone over, and four of those have been in the Great OVERican Ballpark.
I'll bite.
The play: WAS/CIN OVER 9.5 -106 - 636 to win 600
Skip one down to Baltimore, where two lefties go tonight in the Gambler and Bedard. The Gambler will face an Orioles squad that is hitting just .206 against LH starters. Mora and Gomez might not go tonight either. Rain could be a part of this one.
Bedard won his first four starts of the season, but is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three times out. Look for him to try to turn it around tonight after going just two innings against Boston last time. The price looks really cheap on Detroit tonight so I'll bite on the side as well, considering they've banged out 10 or more hits in four of their last five games and Baltimore has lost 9 of 11. Gorman and his 65.3 strike percentage qualifies for an UNDER, as does his 27-46 record behind the plate since 2004.
The plays: Detroit - 111 - 333 to win 300 and UNDER 9 -116 in DET/BAL - 464 to win 400
Big bet of the day is in the Bronx, where Tim Wakefield and Shawn Chacon go out and try to figure out how to get some steeeeerikes out of stingy Greg Gibson. I say Ho Ho Ho, Christmas in May with Gibson's 59.8 strike percentage and 39-29 O/U record since 2004. He's yielding 11.29 rpg this year, has seen 3 of his last 4 go OVER after a slow start and has done five straight Red Sox games OVER. Not only that, Gibson has had Wakefield twice in his career and is NOT a big fan of the knuckler. Boston beat Detroit 11-9 once, and lost 11-8 to Toronto the other time. Neither of these two pitchers are as good as their counterparts from the last two nights, yet the games still went OVER. I'll sell the half-run from 10 to 10.5 because it's not worth 18 cents they're giving me (better bargain than O 10 -116)...
Despite having won his last four starts, Chacon is 0-1 with a 12.71 ERA in four appearances against the Red Sox. Wakefield hasn't won since his second start of the season. He's 8-12 with a 4.47 ERA in 40 career appearances, including 23 starts, against the Yankees.
This one sails over the total.
The play: BOS/NYY OVER 10.5 plus 102 - 800 to win 816.
Onto tomorrow's stuff, back in the afternoon to chat... GL!
:thumbsup2:
