Help with hedging: $20,000 win possible

jestein · May 11, 2006

Ok, I have been laying low for a while, because I didn't want to jinx anything. However, I have reached a point where I am trying to decide what to do regarding my nhl future bets. I bet carolina earlier in the year at a big name sportsbook for a few hundred to win 20,000 dollars. Being that Carolina is up 3-0 in the series I am trying to decide what I should do in the next rounds.

A little regarding my financial situation is probably helpful. I could use the money, in fact I could use any amount of money right now. A 20,000 win would be unbelievable, however I can't afford to just let all this money go down the tubes either. 2,000 would help me out, but 5,000 would put me in a much more secure state. I have overextended myself with the credit cards and really do need to make some payments. I don't have 1,000s of dollars to put in a sportsbook to hedge, so I probably will bet with locals or ask my dad for money and bet in vegas. I am a 22 year old student so you probably remember what its like to be broke.

I figure Carolina to be favored over buffalo considering they have home ice. I am looking at Carolina to be about a -140 fav. I don't know how home ice is determined in the finals. Against San Jose they will probably be an underdog, against anyone else probably a small fav. Please any suggestions are appreciated. Right now I am thinking

2000 on buffalo to win 2600 - the 300 or so i bet for a 2300 dollar win.
If Carolina were to win i would bet something like 6,000 on the other team in the finals. This is just off the top of my head type thinking. Don't really know if there is a system to use or a better way of going about it.
Thanks for reading and any help you can provide.

Dante · May 11, 2006

so you have caro to win the stanley cup??? and you only bet 200$ so you are not going to be out alot if they lose

you want to hedge 200$?

winbet · May 11, 2006

I havent time to look at everything and I no nothing of hockey but once off bets like this need Hedgeing now to make it even on both sides. If you feel like going with Fate like some do in your situation then weight it accordingly.

However, I always say that in these circumstances, imagine the next result and ask yourself, will I be happy with my position win or lose, that is the Litmus Test. :drink:

WVU · May 11, 2006

nice future.

wait until they get to the finals. then hedge yourself out of debt. Borrow cheat and steal if you have to to find hedge money. To lock in several grand you will need several grand

FatTony · May 11, 2006

Dante said:
so you have caro to win the stanley cup??? and you only bet 200$ so you are not going to be out alot if they lose

you want to hedge 200$?

He wants to hedge $20,000.

winbet · May 11, 2006

Fat Tony said:
He wants to hedge $20,000.

Fat Tony,
There's no doubt your a nice guy and probably talk alot of sense, but nobody is going to take in what your saying looking at your avatar after looking at the preceding one. :drink:

FatTony · May 11, 2006

winbet said:
Fat Tony,
There's no doubt your a nice guy and probably talk alot of sense, but nobody is going to take in what your saying looking at your avatar after looking at the preceding one. :drink:

I have bigger tits

.

ushups:

winbet · May 11, 2006

Fat Tony said:
I have bigger .ushups:

WVU · May 11, 2006

heres a second look for ya

megabyte666 · May 11, 2006

I would bet $10,000 on Buffalo, you are either going to win 10,000 or 9,000, take your pick, but not bad for a $200 investment. Thats just me.

ForumHypocrite · May 11, 2006

let It Ride!!

SportSavant · May 11, 2006

megabyte666 said:
I would bet $10,000 on Buffalo, you are either going to win 10,000 or 9,000, take your pick, but not bad for a $200 investment. Thats just me.

waddya mean, They still need to win the cup woudnt they? or is this just for eastern conference?

roach23 · May 11, 2006

megabyte666 said:
I would bet $10,000 on Buffalo, you are either going to win 10,000 or 9,000, take your pick, but not bad for a $200 investment. Thats just me.

That isn't a guaranteed win. Cause if he loses the 10 grand on Buffalo...he still needs Carolina to win the Cup to collect the 20 grand.

snoopol · May 11, 2006

megabyte666 said:
I would bet $10,000 on Buffalo, you are either going to win 10,000 or 9,000, take your pick, but not bad for a $200 investment. Thats just me.

or nothing if someone from western conference wins stanley cup. he would end up losing $10200.

FatTony · May 11, 2006

SportSavant said:
waddya mean, They still need to win the cup woudnt they? or is this just for eastern conference?

He could bet $5,000 next series and if they win, $10,000 finals and win $5,000.

FatTony · May 11, 2006

Actually, that wouldn't work because Carolina would have to be favored in the Finals.

Insiders · May 11, 2006

Looks like the Bottom line is, its way to early to think about this.

D2bets · May 11, 2006

Carlina now is around 4-1 to win so your current equity is around 4K (16 wins 4). Good luck. Kinda hard to hedge it without money. However, one idea, contact the big sportsbook, they might set something up with you. They know the odds. They may let you bet against them on credit or something like that. A good book should be able to work something out. Call them.

Woody0 · May 11, 2006

Fat Tony said:
He could bet $5,000 next series and if they win, $10,000 finals and win $5,000.

Yup, you can get Buffalo about evens to win the East. If that $5000 loses you need $10,000 to fade Carolina in the finals. You only need to find $15,000.

Alternatively you can wait until Buffalo wins 3 games in the Eastern championship (which may not happen) then bet them on a game for game basis. The advantage is you might not have to bet on the Conference Finals while the disadvantage is you may have to structure several losing bets if Carolina comes back from behind.

Frankly I'd wait until well into the conference finals.

X-Files · May 11, 2006

Let's say Carolina & Buffalo both advance & Carolina is series favorite
at -140. And you bet 2000 on Buffalo to win 2600. If Buffalo wins the
series you have 2600 - 300 = 2300 profit. If Carolina wins you have
them in the cup final, say against San Jose, at +110 {vs -120 SJ}.
If you wager 7200 to win 6000 on San Jose & SJ wins then your
profit is 6000 - {2000 + 300} = 3700. Or if Carolina wins then your
profit is 20,000 - {2000 +300 + 7200} = 11,500. If i were doing
this i'd arrange it so that the profits in the three scenarios are about
an equal amount, i guess about $5500.

Another way to play this would be on a game by game basis, such
as betting on Buffalo for 1000-1500 per game. If Carolina won the
first game then the next game could be a no play until Buffalo won
one or caught up to the number of wins that Carolina had. Same
system for the final if Carolina won the conference series.

If you can't come up with the funds, maybe an arrangement could
be made with the sportsbook where you had the wager &/or in
conjunction with the Rx or another trustworthy third party. For
example, if this was agreeable to the sportsbook, you could transfer
the wager for a certain amount, say $4000, into the buyer's account.
In that case your bet would be transferred into the buyers account
who would send you 4000 via Neteller or some other method. The Rx
could hold the 4000 to send to you when the wager transfer is
completed & confirmed by the book.