The early game winner for Friday is.......

PatrickMcIrish · May 12, 2006

San Diego. At Pinnacle right now they are only laying 118, that is a real bargain IMO. Starting pitching strongly favors the Padres. Guzman has only pitched two games but his ERA is over 7. Worse is the fact his control has been lacking, he's walked 11 men in just 15 innings. Williams on the other hand has walked about the same amount in 40+ innings. His ERA is less than half as well, 3.12 so far this year. While for his career he hasn't pitched great against the Cubs he pitched extremely well against them this year in his only start and picked up a win. Guzman on the other hand in his only start against the Padres lasted just 4.1 innings and left the game with an ERA over 10. Williams is simply better, he's been around and knows how to get big league hitters out.

At the plate I was less confident things favored SD until I looked closer. Cubs actually have hit right-handed pitching better than the Padres this year, they have been horrible against lefties but not so bad when faced with a rightie. Once I looked closer though I got more confident. On the road the Padres hit almost 40 point higher than they have for the season, and in their last 10 games they have been hitting over .300 against right-handed pitching, the Cubs barely over .230! This is simply two teams going in opposite directions right now. SD is 9-1 their last 10 games, the Cubs are 1-9. No guarantees in any of this but I believe the price is right to take a flyer on the Padres. Here's other trends compliments of Covers that might point to SD as well....

W/L Trends

<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsVisitorATS cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>San Diego</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>

<LI class=morehot>Padres are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 day games. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 3-0 in their last 3 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 11-1 in their last 12 games on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 11-1 in their last 12 overall. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 games following a win. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite. <LI class=more>Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. <LI class=more>Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 3-0 in Williams' last 3 starts during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 3-0 in Williams' last 3 road starts. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 5-0 in Williams' last 5 Friday starts. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 5-1 in Williams' last 6 starts. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 5-1 in Williams' last 6 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Padres are 4-1 in Williams' last 5 day starts. <LI class=more>Padres are 5-2 in Williams' last 7 starts as a road favorite. <LI class=more>Padres are 20-8 in Williams' last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Padres are 7-3 in Williams' last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsHomeATS cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>Chi. Cubs</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>

<LI class=morecool>Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. National League West. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 1-9 in their last 10 games on Grass. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 1-9 in their last 10 overall. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 day games. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 0-8 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 0-3 in their last 3 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 0-3 in their last 3 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 0-3 in their last 3 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 0-3 in Guzman's last 3 starts. <LI class=morecool>Cubs are 0-3 in Guzman's last 3 starts on Grass.
Cubs are 0-3 in Guzman's last 3 day starts.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

FairWarning · May 12, 2006

When the total comes out, look under only. It is really crappy out. Doubt it will get much over 40 with rain+wind today. Not sure if today or tomorrow will be played.

Weather will be a big factor this weekend on the eastern side of the US.

Roxygurl · May 12, 2006

FairWarning said:
When the total comes out, look under only. It is really crappy out. Doubt it will get much over 40 with rain+wind today. Not sure if today or tomorrow will be played.

Weather will be a big factor this weekend on the eastern side of the US.

bochy and the players were more concerned with the weather they were flying into than the cubs.lolol..i love it!padres!:thumbsup2:

Fishhead · May 12, 2006

Thanks McIrish........going to take a long look at this game.

PatrickMcIrish · May 12, 2006

Roxygurl said:
bochy and the players were more concerned with the weather they were flying into than the cubs.lolol..i love it!padres!:thumbsup2:

BBBWHAHAHAHAHAHA...... Looks like you and Bochy were right Roxy, at least so far. Padres up 10-4 going into the 8th. I love your team, still seem not to be getting the respect from the linemakers that they deserve. Now they are starting to hit look out! BTW it's weird but they are hitting much better on the road than at home, is that always true or just a freak occurence?

Anyway looking good, 10-4 in the 9th now. :grandmais :grandmais

PatrickMcIrish · May 12, 2006

Fishhead said:
Thanks McIrish........going to take a long look at this game.

You're welcome Fishkremski. Congrats to your nice little run you are on. Never seen a mod team cap as well as these guys do. My biggest loss EVER was the one half season of baseball I worked here, LOL. Not sure how they do it but it cost me money working at the RX, my capping went downhill so fast it got too expensive to be gainfully employed.

Journeyman · May 12, 2006

Nice call Patrick.

Fishhead · May 12, 2006

Patrick McIrish said:
You're welcome Fishkremski. Congrats to your nice little run you are on. Never seen a mod team cap as well as these guys do. My biggest loss EVER was the one half season of baseball I worked here, LOL. Not sure how they do it but it cost me money working at the RX, my capping went downhill so fast it got too expensive to be gainfully employed.

uppy:

GREAT CALL...........Can't believe I didnt back you in this spot.........ME BAD ME BAD ME BAD.

:nopityA: