Friday's MLB...

Bagel last night. Hindsight is 20/20. Got good information about three hours before the game that Willis has had it with Girardi and wants to be traded. Betting on him is like throwing good money after bad. The Braves pounded out 18 hits and I shoulda had a big bet on them on the ML and the RL. Just plain stupid when you work down here and don't take full advantage of your resources.

I'm in a decent hole. Thanks to the baskets and horse matchups both last weekend and next weekend I should be okay with my bankroll to fight out of this mess. But can't take too many more 0-3 and lose 1836 nights. Now at 36-48-3 and down 4999 for baseball in 2006. Convinced the UMPS will start to turn things around, from about May 10 through the AS break is when things usually start to happen. Just because I had a rough go of it Tues and last night doesn't mean it will stay that way. Gotta keep battling and let the umps do their thing, like they do year in and year out these 8-9 weeks.

To today...

Going with the Padres at a short price against the Chubs today. They outscored Chicago 17-7 in the four games at Petco Park to complete a sweep and run the winning streak to 9 games (it's 11 of 12 now). Last year the Pads were 22-6 in May, so this is nothing new for them, and their pitchers (2.53 ERA are really getting it done).

Williams (3-1, 3.12 ERA) gets the nod again today after befuddling the Flubs all day Sunday. He was constantly mixing four pitches in returning to his finest form since the 2003 All-Star season in St. Louis. He yielded three runs and eight hits over eight innings by using a knuckler at times to compliment his other off-speed junk.

Chicago returns home after winning just once on a nine-game road trip. Always enjoy fading a team in its first game back after a long roadie, and it helps that the Northsiders haven't had much success at Wrigley Field recently. They were outscored 34-4 in losing three of their last four home games before the trip. I'll bite on the value in the day game; I made the Fathers -133, can definitely get the best of it here.

The play: San Diego -117 - 585 to win 500

Back later with some night games and to STALK...

GL all...

:thumbsup2:

Who are the sorry Indians and Lee to be favored 137 over The Gambler? He's running as good as anyone lately mixing up his pitches and I made this game a full 16 cents lower. Let's take a stab at the Tigers, who are the better team and have the better pitcher going tonight - provided it doesn't get rained out...

The play: Detroit plus 127 - 300 to win 381

Also adding the Redlegs. The price is simply too good. Even with Ramirez (who in my mind is lateral to sorry Dave Williams) against Hamels, I don't see a 'huge' edge for the Phillies here. Remember these are the leaders of the best division in baseball (God I can't believe I'm saying that) playing at home against a first-time starter.

Yes, I know all about Hamels and his stats and his 96 mph fastball. But the Reds hitters are among the best in baseball at frustrating a pitcher. Especially in the National League (1-8), they go up and down the lineup wasting 2-strike pitches for foul balls that guys in the minors flail at. Don't be surprised if the kid gets frustrated and burns up a bunch of pitches early here and gets chased by the sixth or so. From there, the game should be a PICK and that's if Hamels can keep the Reds from scoring more than 3-4 runs. At this price, I'd be silly not to take the home doggie.

The play: Reds plus 122 - 300 to win 366

GL!

tribe/tigers may not play tonight because of rain. suppose to rain the whole weekend. just didnt want you to get to excited about a play then get rained out or is played with rain delays.

best of luck...

beerformyhorses

Thanks beer. Aware of the rain situation in all three of my games. Won't get excited one way or another. All I can do is make my numbers and if the line is too far off, then bet them...

GL...

GL today Rex.

Don't sleep on my boy Hamels. Kids been sick recently.

I hear ya Roach. Just the price I'm betting...

Here we go....

EVERITT in Baltimore. Conflicting team trends there (KC 1-6 L7 OVER on road at night but BAL seemingly always goes OVER in home NGs)...

B. WELKE in Tampa. Both pitchers going good right now; Janssen off his first win and McClung has been good his 2 May starts. B. Welke only 6.73 RPG... his 63.11 strike percentage is not unworldly but nevertheless, trying UNDER.

The play: TOR/TAM UNDER 9.5 plus 105 - 300 to win 315

Club member pops up in Boston! GORMAN... He's 67 percent UNDER in the AL the last three years with a 65.32 strike percentage this year... and gets a hot Loe (relatively speaking, looking at his road splits) against Clement, whose ERA vs. TEX is in the low-3s...

The play: TEX/BOS UNDER 10.5 EVEN - 500 to win 500

Nauert and his 60.77 in Pittsburgh. Nothing to it either way, pass.

Another club member, Bucknor, in Atlanta!!! This qualifies as a big play. He's 70 percent OVER in the NL the last three years. Ortiz will face the Braves for the FOURTH TIME time this season!!! He is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA against them. In his last start, Ortiz pitched five innings and gave up four runs on six hits. His 60.53 is right on the bubble but all things included, this is a big one.

The play: WAS/ATL OVER 8.5 -125 - 500 to win 400

Back with the rest when the UMPS crawl out of the bushes....