NEW HERE: Saturday Favorites

Hey everyone I'm new here been reading the last few days and it has really turned my season around. I've been winning a ton lately! Saturday looks like a tough day on the Diamond as there are a lot of even matchups. Here are the games I like though:

Bluejays -210 over Tampa: Halladay looked amazing the other night against the Angels and while Hendrickson has been good I think his fluke start is bound to blow up sooner or later.

White Sox's -150 over Minnesota: Vazquez has been dominating and the Twins have been anything but consistent on the year. Radke has been horrible all season long and I think the powerful White Sox's lineup will put up enough runs for Vazquez to take home a comfortable W.

Giants -131 over LA Dodgers: A lot of people seem to be taking the Dodgers in an upset but Lowry absolutely owns the Dodgers in is career 22 innings pitched 1.19 ERA. Dating back to last 2nd half Lowry has been one of the best pitchers in the game. People have to remember Aaron Sele is still Aaron Sele, Bonds hits 714 today and Giants win comfortably.

Seattle +125 over LA Angels: It's tough betting on the Mariners but Washburn seemed to have a chip on his shoulder last time he faced his former team, factor in that Seattle generally hits Lackey pretty decently I think this could be a low scoring win for the Mariners.

Hope my winning trend continues and if anyone has anything to say about my picks don't hesitate to chime in!

welcome and good luck with your plays today. they certainly look like winners...hope they are for ya.

Makemaker:
Take it from me, you keep laying big juice on anything and you cannot win over the long haul.

Here's an article that I wrote for a magazine a few years ago. The names are outdated but the theory is not and never will be:


Craps, roulette, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack, etc., should be regarded as strictly entertainment. The reason, of course, is that the odds in those games are always tilted against the player, whether it's very slightly or not so slightly at all. The house enjoys an advantage in those games on virtually every bet, so players are ultimately bound to lose. Mathematical laws of the universe simply cannot be violated over an extended period of time. When wagering on baseball you have the option to tilt the odds in your favour. You have the option to lay juice or take the vigorish. In other words, instead of laying down $150 to win $100, you can wager $100 to profit $140. The secret is not complicated. When betting on baseball never play a favourite under any circumstance regardless of who is pitching. If you play favourites in baseball, I guarantee you will lose.

With a schedule of 162 games for every team and almost 2,700 baseball games in a season, surely it makes sense to sniff out the dogs on a daily basis.

Why put yourself in a position that is extremely difficult to overcome by playing favourites? They just don't win enough. Every baseball team this season will most likely win 60 games and lose 60 games. There are very few exceptions to this rule. That being the case, it is so blatantly obvious that underdogs win consistently.

Let's look into this a little bit closer. Suppose you play an average of three games a day for the entire baseball season. There are roughly 180 days in a season. Multiply that by three and you have a total of 540 games you would be wagering on. Now suppose you always played favourites and laid an average of 1.40 per game and wagered $100.00 on every game. Let's give you the benefit of the doubt and award you 58 percent winners (highly unlikely) considering that the best teams in baseball will play around that same 58 percent clip. Your record would be 313 wins and 227 losses. Looks pretty good on paper, but would you be happy with that? Simple math will tell you that you would profit $31,300. (313 x 100) and you would lose $31,700. (227 x 1.40), for a net loss of $400. Incredible!! You win 58 percent of your games and still end up losing for the year. In fact, it is well known among linesmakers that underdogs win as many games a year as do favorites. If you happen to win the exact same percentage of dogs with an average takeback of 1.30 per game and wagered the exact same amount, your net profit for the year would be $18,000. Read that again, it's not a typographical error, it is a fact. 313 x 1.30 x 100. = $40,690. minus your losses of 227 x 100 = $22,700. If these facts are not convincing enough then I don't know what would be. Simply put: If you want to win, play underdogs only. There is no other way. Those of you who have been laying 1.60 or better on games, it is time to turn that around. The best pitchers in baseball will win 15 games out of roughly 40 starts. The bullpen will decide the outcome of the other 25 starts. How do you feel when you make a bet on a great pitcher laying 1.70, only to see his teammates come up lame and the game tied going to the late innings. It's not a good feeling. If you're on the other side of that fence, you will immediately reap the benefits. I guarantee it.