OK, another positive day Friday, went 3-2 and won 396. Coulda been better had the Strangers and Sox not been washed out in the sixth, where I was favored to win my UNDER. But, coulda been worse. Now 39-50-3 and down 4603 for the year.
Onto the big Saturday card.
Can't play the Cubs, but would have them after Maddux's shortest start since last June. Cy Young will eventually be figured out. He's facing the a team for the second time for the first time since he switched over to the NL. Not that it matters being the Chubs though...
Interesting setup in Frisco. Sele had a good outing last time and Lowry is as good as SFO's got going when he's right. Emmel usually an UNDER umpire but this year through six games back behind the plate he's yielded 11.17 runs and only called 59.92 percent strikes. Normally an auto-OVER bet but I can't pull the trigger because I made it a little lower than they got now and the ump, you figure, would change his colors eventually...
Tim Welke, 13.43 runs per game, 5-1 OVER, Reds in a semi-day game. ERA's are high for this one (6.60, 7.85). Williams really struggles with Philly (life ERA over 11) and the Reds just had four hits Friday; they don't struggle at the plate two days in a row very often. Lieber is struggling with consistency, gotta give it a whirl.
The play: PHI/CIN OVER 10.5 -107 - 321 to win 300
Two guys making their first starts of the season in Milwaukee. I've heard nothing but good reports on this Eveland. He struggled in the spring but has earned this role in filling in for Sheets. At AAA Nashville he had a Pacific Coast League-best 0.75 ERA in six starts. He was limited to 70 pitches on Tuesday and will make his Brewers '06 debut on three days' rest. I'm not a Gonzalez fan, he was behind Bannister AND Victor Zambrano after the spring. That Met staff will eventually fall apart and they will too.
The play: Brewers -106 - 318 to win 300
Lean to Washington, as O'Connor pitched in front of fam and friends last time for the first time and was admittedly nervous. Sosa hasn't started since May 2 because he had to pitch that 14-inning game last week in New York. He's got good stuff but his location sucks at this point; it's why people are hitting him at a .323 clip. Still, if he's anywhere close to the zone, Hirschbeck will be right there to ring 'em up all night long. I'll count on better stuff for O'Connor and bite.
The play: WAS/ATL UNDER 9 -120 - 360 to win 300
Loading up on a big 'dog today. The Rockies are plus 169 with Cook up there against Oswalt??? Did they not see last Sunday's game? Cook was nearly flawless for eight innings against the Astros. He pounded the strike-zone with his sinker and had timely usage of his four-seamer. He eventually retired 15 with grounders and sat down 13 in a row at one point (allowing only one ball to leave the infield in a span of 15 batters faced). He gave up a solo homer in the second, and was untouchable until he left in the ninth after yielding an inning-opening base hit and a walk, leading to an additional run. He's 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA against Houston in four career appearances, including three starts.
Oswalt is coming off his shortest start of the season, going only 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Giants. He gave up seven runs - six earned - on 10 hits. The line is so high because he is undefeated with a 1.56 ERA against the Rockies in five career starts and they are hitting just .205 against Oswalt since he started with the Astros in 2001. Rockies have beaten Houston 3 of 4 this season and are playing better on the road.
The play: Colorado plus 169 - 600 to win 1014
Got some dissention in the UMP club, at least with one of the bookmakers down here, on the next one. Reliford and his 65.13 strike percentage goes in Pittsburgh. He's 18-25 O/U since the start of 2004 (3-3 this year, meaning some of these strikes will eventually translate into lower-scoring games). I'll take a stab at this one too, considering Duke had one bad inning last time and if Olson gets through the fourth, he's fine too.
The play: FLA/PIT UNDER 8 plus 114 - 300 to win 342
Arizona priced too high against the Cardinals. Vargas won his third straight start Saturday against the Reds, yielding 1 runs in six IP. During the streak he has allowed just two earned runs over 19 innings. He is 2-0 on the road this year and has not allowed a run in 13 innings of work.
Meanwhile, Marquis lost for the fourth time in a row. He's doing plenty of things wrong but the bottom line is this: he's leaving his two-seam fastball up in the strike zone. When he gets it down, he's effective. When it's up, he gets hit hard. I'm not counting on him to fix it tonight if it hasn't been fixed his last four times out there.
The play: Arizona plus 125 - 500 to win 625
I liked the A's but missed the number earlier. If I see another plus 39 or higher, I'll bite. Halsey going better than Wright and Oakland is a competitive road team.
Another UMP conundrum in Baltimore today, as Marquez going. He's 9o-16u AL since start of 2004, and 26-37 O/U overall. Yet this season, he's calling just 59.69 percent strikes, amongst the lowest in the league. Redman and Benson both rely on the corners and are finesse pitchers. I would normally leave it alone but Benson was awful in his last start. Redman gave up just 2 to the Chi Sox in 7 IP. He got a late start because of knee surgery during the spring, so perhaps he's catching up. Let's try a correlated deal...
The plays: Kansas City plus 153 - 200 to win 306
OVER 9 -124 - 372 to win 300
2team parlay - Kansas City plus 151/ OVER 9.5 even - 250 to win 1005
They're gonna try to make Texas a dog with Koronka going against LENNY DiNardo? Koronka has won four straight decisions and is 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in his first three starts on the road this season. DiNardo got the win last time thanks to the Red Sox offense. He actually walked FOUR STRAIGHT in the first inning last time. I'll try it.
The play: Texas plus 115 - 400 to win 460
Posted something like this in Wire's thread earlier:
Bonderman is a better pitcher than his last start. He left a lot of pitches up in the Dome last time and got whacked around for 10 hits in 6 2/3. He battled with control problems as well. He also got jacked around by the Tribe last time (4/15) at home (7 runs, 8 hits, 3 2/3 innings). I think he's a better pitcher than that and does well against people in a sort-of 'revenge' role.
Sabathia just had his best start yet, looking like the guy who got the Tribe back in the playoff hunt last September. He's taken a little off his fastball, which has allowed him to control the strike zone better. That mid-to-high 90s fastball is still there, and I expect him to use it more today. Eddings is behind the plate today, he did the Philly/Mets 5-4 debacle Tuesday where 4 runs scored in the last two innings that sent me to the poorhouse. He's as UNDER as they come, just can't control the pens. So long as they stay out of this one, I like my chances here.
THe play: DET/CLE UNDER 8 plus 103 - 600 to win 618
ChiSox only minus-40 at the Dome. Why? Vazquez won his fourth straight start Saturday, flirting with a perfect game through five innings. He allowed two runs on four hits in 7 2/3 innings, with no walks and six strikeouts. His reliance on a two-seam fastball has helped him get ahead in counts and finish opposing hitters. That pitch has also helped him yield just 1 homer in 40 2/3 innings after giving up 35 last season. During this winning streak, he's allowed just four runs through 27 2/3 innings.
Radke has only allowed fewer than four ER's once all season. Last time, the Rangers smacked him around 11 hits and six ER five innings on Monday. I'll bite.
The play: ChiSox -140 - 700 to win 500
Toronto looked sooooo inviting but I cannot believe this price. They really hit lefties well and Roy is the MAN but Hendrickson has a lower ERA than anyone on Tampa's staff and he's a 2-plus dollar dog at home? Wow.
No interest in the last game. Lackey was solid in going the distance in a CG loss last time; Washburn has never faced his former club before, I like Anaheim a little bit but the price has to come down a tad more before I draw too much interest.
Good luck!
:thumbsup2:
Onto the big Saturday card.
Can't play the Cubs, but would have them after Maddux's shortest start since last June. Cy Young will eventually be figured out. He's facing the a team for the second time for the first time since he switched over to the NL. Not that it matters being the Chubs though...
Interesting setup in Frisco. Sele had a good outing last time and Lowry is as good as SFO's got going when he's right. Emmel usually an UNDER umpire but this year through six games back behind the plate he's yielded 11.17 runs and only called 59.92 percent strikes. Normally an auto-OVER bet but I can't pull the trigger because I made it a little lower than they got now and the ump, you figure, would change his colors eventually...
Tim Welke, 13.43 runs per game, 5-1 OVER, Reds in a semi-day game. ERA's are high for this one (6.60, 7.85). Williams really struggles with Philly (life ERA over 11) and the Reds just had four hits Friday; they don't struggle at the plate two days in a row very often. Lieber is struggling with consistency, gotta give it a whirl.
The play: PHI/CIN OVER 10.5 -107 - 321 to win 300
Two guys making their first starts of the season in Milwaukee. I've heard nothing but good reports on this Eveland. He struggled in the spring but has earned this role in filling in for Sheets. At AAA Nashville he had a Pacific Coast League-best 0.75 ERA in six starts. He was limited to 70 pitches on Tuesday and will make his Brewers '06 debut on three days' rest. I'm not a Gonzalez fan, he was behind Bannister AND Victor Zambrano after the spring. That Met staff will eventually fall apart and they will too.
The play: Brewers -106 - 318 to win 300
Lean to Washington, as O'Connor pitched in front of fam and friends last time for the first time and was admittedly nervous. Sosa hasn't started since May 2 because he had to pitch that 14-inning game last week in New York. He's got good stuff but his location sucks at this point; it's why people are hitting him at a .323 clip. Still, if he's anywhere close to the zone, Hirschbeck will be right there to ring 'em up all night long. I'll count on better stuff for O'Connor and bite.
The play: WAS/ATL UNDER 9 -120 - 360 to win 300
Loading up on a big 'dog today. The Rockies are plus 169 with Cook up there against Oswalt??? Did they not see last Sunday's game? Cook was nearly flawless for eight innings against the Astros. He pounded the strike-zone with his sinker and had timely usage of his four-seamer. He eventually retired 15 with grounders and sat down 13 in a row at one point (allowing only one ball to leave the infield in a span of 15 batters faced). He gave up a solo homer in the second, and was untouchable until he left in the ninth after yielding an inning-opening base hit and a walk, leading to an additional run. He's 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA against Houston in four career appearances, including three starts.
Oswalt is coming off his shortest start of the season, going only 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Giants. He gave up seven runs - six earned - on 10 hits. The line is so high because he is undefeated with a 1.56 ERA against the Rockies in five career starts and they are hitting just .205 against Oswalt since he started with the Astros in 2001. Rockies have beaten Houston 3 of 4 this season and are playing better on the road.
The play: Colorado plus 169 - 600 to win 1014
Got some dissention in the UMP club, at least with one of the bookmakers down here, on the next one. Reliford and his 65.13 strike percentage goes in Pittsburgh. He's 18-25 O/U since the start of 2004 (3-3 this year, meaning some of these strikes will eventually translate into lower-scoring games). I'll take a stab at this one too, considering Duke had one bad inning last time and if Olson gets through the fourth, he's fine too.
The play: FLA/PIT UNDER 8 plus 114 - 300 to win 342
Arizona priced too high against the Cardinals. Vargas won his third straight start Saturday against the Reds, yielding 1 runs in six IP. During the streak he has allowed just two earned runs over 19 innings. He is 2-0 on the road this year and has not allowed a run in 13 innings of work.
Meanwhile, Marquis lost for the fourth time in a row. He's doing plenty of things wrong but the bottom line is this: he's leaving his two-seam fastball up in the strike zone. When he gets it down, he's effective. When it's up, he gets hit hard. I'm not counting on him to fix it tonight if it hasn't been fixed his last four times out there.
The play: Arizona plus 125 - 500 to win 625
I liked the A's but missed the number earlier. If I see another plus 39 or higher, I'll bite. Halsey going better than Wright and Oakland is a competitive road team.
Another UMP conundrum in Baltimore today, as Marquez going. He's 9o-16u AL since start of 2004, and 26-37 O/U overall. Yet this season, he's calling just 59.69 percent strikes, amongst the lowest in the league. Redman and Benson both rely on the corners and are finesse pitchers. I would normally leave it alone but Benson was awful in his last start. Redman gave up just 2 to the Chi Sox in 7 IP. He got a late start because of knee surgery during the spring, so perhaps he's catching up. Let's try a correlated deal...
The plays: Kansas City plus 153 - 200 to win 306
OVER 9 -124 - 372 to win 300
2team parlay - Kansas City plus 151/ OVER 9.5 even - 250 to win 1005
They're gonna try to make Texas a dog with Koronka going against LENNY DiNardo? Koronka has won four straight decisions and is 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in his first three starts on the road this season. DiNardo got the win last time thanks to the Red Sox offense. He actually walked FOUR STRAIGHT in the first inning last time. I'll try it.
The play: Texas plus 115 - 400 to win 460
Posted something like this in Wire's thread earlier:
Bonderman is a better pitcher than his last start. He left a lot of pitches up in the Dome last time and got whacked around for 10 hits in 6 2/3. He battled with control problems as well. He also got jacked around by the Tribe last time (4/15) at home (7 runs, 8 hits, 3 2/3 innings). I think he's a better pitcher than that and does well against people in a sort-of 'revenge' role.
Sabathia just had his best start yet, looking like the guy who got the Tribe back in the playoff hunt last September. He's taken a little off his fastball, which has allowed him to control the strike zone better. That mid-to-high 90s fastball is still there, and I expect him to use it more today. Eddings is behind the plate today, he did the Philly/Mets 5-4 debacle Tuesday where 4 runs scored in the last two innings that sent me to the poorhouse. He's as UNDER as they come, just can't control the pens. So long as they stay out of this one, I like my chances here.
THe play: DET/CLE UNDER 8 plus 103 - 600 to win 618
ChiSox only minus-40 at the Dome. Why? Vazquez won his fourth straight start Saturday, flirting with a perfect game through five innings. He allowed two runs on four hits in 7 2/3 innings, with no walks and six strikeouts. His reliance on a two-seam fastball has helped him get ahead in counts and finish opposing hitters. That pitch has also helped him yield just 1 homer in 40 2/3 innings after giving up 35 last season. During this winning streak, he's allowed just four runs through 27 2/3 innings.
Radke has only allowed fewer than four ER's once all season. Last time, the Rangers smacked him around 11 hits and six ER five innings on Monday. I'll bite.
The play: ChiSox -140 - 700 to win 500
Toronto looked sooooo inviting but I cannot believe this price. They really hit lefties well and Roy is the MAN but Hendrickson has a lower ERA than anyone on Tampa's staff and he's a 2-plus dollar dog at home? Wow.
No interest in the last game. Lackey was solid in going the distance in a CG loss last time; Washburn has never faced his former club before, I like Anaheim a little bit but the price has to come down a tad more before I draw too much interest.
Good luck!
:thumbsup2:
